Husband & Father | Truth Seeker | 20+ year technology | Trading & Investing since 2008 | Pilot | Not Financial Advice🏄🌊
Texas, USA
Joined December 2020
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₿randon retweeted
Despite the significant investments ploughed into artificial intelligence it has provided “zero payoff” to corporate America outside of technology, according to Apollo's Chief Economist Torsten Slok. Read more: bloom.bg/3UeNZMq
📷: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg
₿randon retweeted
Elon Musk just told the entire world that the AI bubble has popped... buckle up.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Elon Musk referred specifically to debt markets shutting off for neoclouds (specialized AI cloud providers without other revenue) and their likely consolidation, not the broader AI sector or bubble popping. Hyperscalers continue guiding hundreds of billions in AI capex.
x.com/elonmusk/statu…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
cryptobriefing.com/musk-predicts-…
fourweekmba.com/ai-meta-google…
₿randon retweeted
DIPLOMAT INVOLVED IN IRAN-US TALKS: TALKS CONTINUE; CALLS REPORTS A DEAL IS CLOSE ‘WRONG’
₿randon retweeted
Introducing SKY-001, the first Engineering World Model.
On CAD and BIM tasks, it beats GPT-6 Astra and every frontier model we tested:
-> 51-125x faster
- > 150-210x cheaper
-> Higher IOU than all frontier models
SKY-001 lets you dream a physical object before you build it.
18 months of work. Built by the team out of Maluuba's deep learning lab (acq. by @MSRResearch).
The first ‘AI General Engineer’ will be the backbone for Autonomous Manufacturing.
₿randon retweeted
Capital of energy, semiconductors, intelligence factories, education, robotics, and brisket.
₿randon retweeted
Most recently the EIA & API reports of ~10M barrels of decline in US commercial inventories last week showing signs of reacceleration of inventory draws.
More broadly EIA data shows that US onshore inventories are down ~500 million barrels YTD & independent satellite observation of onshore inventories globally elsewhere indicate another 1B barrels of inventory draws globally elsewhere for a total of at least 1.5 billion barrels.
₿randon retweeted
NEW: Data from Kpler published today shows an ENORMOUS drop off in the amount of oil transiting Hormuz per day, with the last three days only moving 10M barrels of oil COMBINED.
While these numbers will likely be revised upwards over the coming days…
There’s certainly been a sharp decline in volume as a result of Iran’s strikes on TWENTY SEVEN vessels in the months of October alone. This includes the container vessel struck earlier today.
₿randon retweeted
Why isn't oil at $200? Because "someone" keeps dumping oil futures all night long, and the CFTC refuses to look into it. Heck, even when it's clear-cut insider trading, the CFTC has been told to "back off," and they did. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
₿randon retweeted
Big news, Texas! We're opening Constellation Park, a new 1.3-million-square-foot manufacturing complex and bringing 2,000 jobs to Hutto, TX, to support TeraWave and Quartz. The campus will house manufacturing for key Blue Origin subsystems, including solar arrays, avionics, telecommunications, and other satellite hardware.
Read more: bit.ly/3VqvxAL
₿randon retweeted
Bitcoin price is running hot (above 1 StdDev) against the average of prior Bitcoin cycles.
I use this chart to gauge cycle timing and risk. Remember, price can and usually does the unexpected (including going outside green StdDev markings).
NFA & DYOR
₿randon retweeted
BREAKING: China has directly rejected US sanctions on Iranian airlines, confirming it will continue allowing Iranian carriers to operate on its territory in defiance of Washington's threat to exclude any airport from the dollar system, after a Mahan Air flight from Tehran landed in Guangzhou on Wednesday despite the measures taking effect, per FlightRadar24 and China's Foreign Ministry.
Beijing's Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said China "consistently opposes illegal unilateral sanctions that lack a basis in international law or authorization from the UN Security Council," after Treasury Secretary Bessent warned any airport providing fuel, landing services or ticket sales to Iranian planes would be "knocked out of the dollar system" from September 23, per his CNBC interview.
₿randon retweeted
Free newsletter: I estimate that ~50% of AI chip sales - $200bn to $300bn+ - are sitting in warehouses, with NVIDIA selling hundreds of billions of GPUs years in advance. Data centers take way longer to build than hyperscalers are leading us to believe.
wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-…
₿randon retweeted
We call this forward buying ahead of utilization. This is a natural phenomenon of any capex boom. Same thing happened during the telecom equipment/fiber build out in the late 90’s. Physical constraints, project delays and financing ultimately caused a slowdown. Eventually that earmarked forward equipment inventory started to enter the secondary market and customers stopped ordering.
It’s called a cycle. The question as always is the timing.
Free newsletter: I estimate that ~50% of AI chip sales - $200bn to $300bn+ - are sitting in warehouses, with NVIDIA selling hundreds of billions of GPUs years in advance. Data centers take way longer to build than hyperscalers are leading us to believe.
wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-…