Pragmatic Moderate Conservative | Views my own.

Joined October 2024
🥀Correctly forecasting how things would work out for Labour and Rachel Reeves, 5 July 2024. 🤡“It’s going to be an absolute circus.”
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I told you all this was inevitable. Keep the faith. Never bet against the Tory Party.
We have Tory-Reform crossover. Average of 6 polls from different companies, fieldwork 16-23 Oct Lab 28.8% Con 22.2% Rfm 21.7% Green 9.5% Lib Dem 9.2% en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio…
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It is now neck and neck between @KemiBadenoch and Burnham. The choice is clear! 🇬🇧🌳
Party Leader Satisfaction Ratings: Kemi Badenoch (CON): 35% (+7) Andy Burnham (LAB): 35% (+4) Nigel Farage (REF): 22% (-2) Ed Davey (LDM): 20% (-3) Zack Polanski (GRN): 17% (-1) via @Ipsos_in_the_UK, 15-22 Oct (Changes with 15 Sep)
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I mean, clearly the key problem with the UK over the past few years has been: not enough immigration. But even so...
So the idea here is that we'd choose to return to free movement without becoming EU members? Err...
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Nigel Farage is clearly really enjoying his so-called "Shadow Chancellor"'s speech
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Higher inflation isn’t just driving up prices, it’s increasing the benefits bill. Either way, it’s working households who end up picking up the tab. Conservatives will cut the benefits bill, protect those who need help and get Britain working again.
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Basically Andy Burnham is saying it will be on his agenda if he wins the next election. We would have thousands more coming here with even more open borders. Brexit back on the table and freedom of movement.
“I would like to see that happen in my lifetime.” Prime Minister Andy Burnham tells Good Morning Britain he believes Brexit has weakened the UK economy and its control over immigration. But he insists the British public must have the final say, ruling out a move to rejoin the EU during this Parliament. #brexit #uk #politics
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Rising wage tax credit?
Stocking shelves in Sainsbury's and an entry-level graduate job in accounting are already very close to paying the same this will only make the job market more fucked (particularly for young people)
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🧵Am struck by how quickly the thermostatic flip in public opinion on tax and spending seems to have happened this Parliament. In 2024, Britons prioritised investing in public services over cutting tax (54% - 30%). Now, that’s flipped: 49% choose tax cuts, 36% public services
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Who hired the staff?
🚨 WATCH: Nigel Farage blames "staff incompetence" for a half empty hall at Reform UK's event in London
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Something else is unfair. 16pc of Londoners are on out of work benefits - this has doubled in eight years. Social housing queue is long enough. Shabana Mahmood is right: if London’s economy is growing in a way that imports rather than shortens dole queues, intervention is needed.
Sadiq Khan has said Shabana Mahmood's proposal to extend the time foreign nationals had to wait before being granted indefinite leave to remain was unfair on those already living in Britain. Mahmood plans to increase this period from five to 15 years, prompting a backlash from Cabinet ministers and trade unions about the measure’s effect on social care workers ⤵️ telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2…
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We love to see it.
NEW ARTICLE: Reform Now Projected to Get Less Than 100 Seats pollingreport.uk/articles/re…
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Struggling sectors should get tax relief that sunsets subject to review.
This is tough for a Labour Chancellor - quietly de-emphasising a manifesto commitment on the youth minimum wage, and something that is v popular on his own side. But this also reflects the evidence that UK unit labour costs have risen the fastest amongst major economies in recent years, and labour demand in those sectors where the minimum “bites” most (retail & hospitality) have seen the biggest hit. He won’t get much credit for this, but it does speak to a ChX responding to labour market evidence - which is always better than the alternative!
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A must read. Britain has a structural problem where the state and central government is sucking the life out of the economy and productive people within it. I can confirm there are not many net contributors left and those which are, will be increasingly squeezed to plug the gap.
This post goes some way to explaining the dire financial straits the UK is in... "Britain has almost run out of taxpayers, or at the very least, it’s slowly running out of people who pay enough taxes to plausibly finance the state." "...in 1998, about 43 per cent of British earners paid sufficient tax to cover the Government’s average per-capita spending. During Covid, that figure fell to an absolute low of circa 20 per cent, then by 2025 recovered modestly to 26.6 per cent." No wonder if fewer than 27% of people are net contributors to the state It's stats like this that make me want to leave. Big new project in the US in the next few months might be just the springboard I need @griffitha @LiamHalligan open.substack.com/pub/ieains…
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NEW ARTICLE: Reform Now Projected to Get Less Than 100 Seats pollingreport.uk/articles/re…
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State capital allocation latest. They need more tax money to pay £190,000 per homeless person. I earn around £85k a year after a 60% marginal tax rate for reference and I have a place to live. Apparently the state needs more than double that to house a homeless person.
‘That’s £190,000 per person…’ ‘We could buy them all a house!” @NickFerrariLBC runs the numbers on the government's pledge to end rough sleeping by Christmas.
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🚨NEW: Household energy bills are forecast to surge by 27% to an average of £2,192 a year from January, according to a new forecast by EDF, one of Britain's biggest energy suppliers
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Reform are a dying party. They’re also tanking in the polls. Only the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch can beat Labour’s Andy Burnham now. We must stop the Labour socialists.
It seems to have been a struggle to find volunteers to fill the room for Reform UK’s pre-Budget announcement today. Watch now on @GBNEWS.
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Your first job can change your life. But someone has to give you a chance. Make it easier for businesses to hire young people. Extend employer National Insurance relief to under-25s. Back NEET Zero. Sign the campaign 👇

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Incompetence and Reform are two words that regularly feature in the same sentence.
🚨 WATCH: Nigel Farage blames "staff incompetence" for a half empty hall at Reform UK's event in London
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