Running corporate accounts globally, pushing paper and landlord concessions since 2007, not a media account
Deal City, USA
Joined March 2023
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UndercoverBroker retweeted
It’s true. Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z are the ones who’ve been running the government these last 15 years or so and engaging in profligate spending.
Last 4 presidents all famously from these generations.
UndercoverBroker retweeted
Our Fund's 2024 Year End Update
The fund generated a 56.96% net return to our limited partners for calendar year 2024.
Below I'll dig a bit deeper into what drove our results and how we're thinking about 2025 👇
UndercoverBroker retweeted
STRIP MALL DEAL UPDATE 🏬🏪🍕
As promised, here's an update on the biggest non-performing loan we've acquired out of our new fund (as always, numbers are rounded for readability)
👇🧵
UndercoverBroker retweeted
Them: “But what if we?”
Me: “Just build more housing.”
Them; “Ok, but instead of that what if we?”
Me: “Or more housing would work.”
Them: “That doesn’t sound right. We should.”
Me: “More housing, maybe?”
Them: “Yeah, let’s add some more restrictions. That’s gonna fix this”
UndercoverBroker retweeted
People aren't quite ready to admit that the Chinese government is incredibly dumb and they missed their chance to be a dominant superpower because of the one-child policy and artificially creating a massive property bubble to stimulate short-term economic growth
UndercoverBroker retweeted
Nothing gets a real estate guy more excited than a big commission
Excluding the planning commission
UndercoverBroker retweeted
Knowing what advice to take (and what to ignore) is a superpower.
My method: Take advice from anyone.
BUT, weigh it according to how happy / successful the giver is.
Put it through your own bullshit meter test.
If it makes sense for your life, do the work to actually apply it.
Ignore 90% of it.
Cherish the rest.
UndercoverBroker retweeted
Would offer a 5% bonus to any architect, engineer, similar professional who maintains a consistent subject line convention on all emails across life of a project
Love searching for email that ended up w/ a subject line of 847294_revised_110123_probablyfinal or “check this one out”
UndercoverBroker retweeted
2020: BRRRR (buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat)
2023: BRRRR (buy, realize, regret, receivership, rehab)
UndercoverBroker retweeted
I just attended @REconveneLA - a real estate conference full of commercial investors who each acquire millions of dollars a year of property.
The cold hard truth:
Things are very bad.
The main takeaway for me personally:
General sentiment is not good. Fear. Struggle. Interest rates are crushing people.
Replacing debt is difficult. Banks don’t want to lend. Their balance sheets are hurting. They are retrading terms at the zero hour and telling investors to take it or leave it. Investors are desperately accepting whatever they can get.
Most institutional buyers are pencils down. Laying off staff. No activity.
Investor capital is very hard to raise. We’re competing against 5% treasuries and cashflow on assets is way lower. Why would people invest in real estate? People are unable to close deals because they can’t raise equity.
Deals are not trading and transaction volume is way down. Brokerage shops are going out of business. There is a mass exudes from the business and thousands are getting laid off.
Several people I spoke to are working hard to save properties. They have floating rate debt on development or value add deals they can’t get done.
Operational fundamentals are under pressure. Revenue is down. Rentals are down. Leasing velocity is down. Rents are dropping in many markets.
A lot of development is still finishing and will make that problem a lot worse.
I saw fear in peoples eyes. They are making incredibly difficult decisions.
It is clear that if rates and rents stay here another 12 months there will be carnage. 24 months + and it will bring a real estate apocalypse.
For those who can retain staff and raise capital the opportunities will be enormous and they are already appearing.
The overlevered folks and poor operators will go broke. The professionals will buy great assets at great prices and get richer.
Hard times are ahead.
Be strong and keep fighting.
UndercoverBroker retweeted
Office is dead and this is why.
Most people are not overly ambitious and care more about this than they do about “getting ahead.”
Owners/CEO want people in the office because it’s more productive, but most people don’t care about their job/company enough to go back now.
We are kidding ourselves if we think they will come back en force. Ever.
UndercoverBroker retweeted
You have absolutely nothing to worry about if you can execute
Everyone thinks there’s a ton of competition out there. There’s zero
World is filled with people who talk & talk but can’t execute
If you can execute, you’ll become rich. That simple. Not a question of if, but when
UndercoverBroker retweeted
Taking a Whole Foods/Trader Joe’s person to a real grocery store is like Yeltsin walking into one in 1989
They cannot comprehend the abundance and low prices
UndercoverBroker retweeted
I received the meanest vitriol of my life today—and it wasn’t even on Twitter.
My son’s teacher just called me a “mega dumbass” and questioned whether I’m even his biological father.
We’ve been homeschooling all year, but this is the first time I’m regretting that decision. 🤔