Small shots. Bitcoin only. No noise, Data driven. Do not copy my trades. Do your own research. NOT FINANCIAL/TRADING ADVISE.
Joined August 2021
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Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
It’s not our fault. Studying sound money principles is a full-time job and feelings aren’t on the balance sheet.
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
Wall Street analysts hates this because it’s overly simplistic, but basic economics states that there is an equilibrium between supply and demand… Bitcoin is supply constrained. Every 4 years block reward is reduced by 50%, so it goes through price discovery to find new equilibrium.
Can get pushed around in the short term by other factors, don’t get me wrong.
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
I think it’s an interesting relationship where they both impact each other.
What makes production costs go up? More miners on the network.
What gets more miners on the network? Higher prices
What happens when costs get too high? Miners leave the network (temporarily)
What happens when prices fall? Miners leave the network temporarily
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
Yes I’m familiar with power law.
Look at bitcoin address growth over the same time, IMO they are measuring the same thing, an adoption S curve
As bitcoin becomes larger and more adopted, growth slows. This is very common in tech adoption
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
Yes, temporarily, but as difficulty is adjusted lower more miners would rejoin the network.
We use this as a near term estimate to help anchor price expectations
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
J.R. Willett was first to publicly document and fit a power-law model of Bitcoin’s price versus time in February 2013. Santostasi mechanistically explained and formalized the broader theory.
Looks like the LLM’s finally have it correct @CaffeSatoshi @Giovann35084111 @dotkrueger
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
Update 1: The attacks form part of a sharp escalation in the Yemen conflict. Saudi Arabia and allied forces have conducted a major offensive against the Houthis; the group has responded with missile strikes aimed at disrupting Saudi airspace, airports, and energy facilities. This is tied to wider regional tensions involving Iran.
Significant flight cancellations across many airlines in the days before and after these incidents; Riyadh was set to host major energy/investment events.
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
Not gonna lie, $58.44 is a pretty terrible X payout for an account with over 14,000 followers.😂
I know follower count doesn’t mean everything, but I feel like there’s room for improvement.
How’d you guys do this payout cycle? xitter.cf/i/jf/cards/money/share…
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
I am NOT selling anything, I don't tell you how much you’ll regret not listening to me or not buying any of my Miracle courses like other influencers. I just posts data analysis based on MATHS and my personal interpretation, I clearly indicate which is which and as far as I know I have been pretty spot on in history. I was never perfect, but overall my trades were succesful and I always post about my direction bias BEFORE the tide turn, unlike many other influencers who magically announced they bought the exact precise bottom, or sold the exact top many days after the event!!!!! And magically declare they made millions of profit on each trade!!!!
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
Idk how this man doesn’t have more followers. Dude isn’t selling anything, doesn’t tell you how much you’ll regret not listening to him or not buying his course. He just posts data and his interpretation, and he’s been pretty spot on in history and since I’ve been following.
Bitcoin ETFs is giving us a signal before price catches up.
Look at the flow data.
August 17: inflows started picking up quietly, with $297M, $189M, $517M and $606M coming in over four days. Bitcoin was still around $64,000 and there wasn't much excitement around a rally.
Then August 20 arrived and Bitcoin jumped roughly $9,000 in a single day.
September 3: $731M flowed into the ETFs. Bitcoin barely reacted that day.
Two days later, it was trading around $81,000.
September 21: $999M came in, the biggest single-day inflow of 2026. Bitcoin closed around $86,400.
The interesting part isn't just the size of the flows. It's the timing.
Money was moving before the big price moves.
That doesn't necessarily mean ETF flows are "predicting" Bitcoin. Flows can be driven by price, expectations and other factors too. But when large inflows repeatedly show up ahead of strong moves, it's worth paying attention.
Retail tends to watch the candles.
ETF flows let us watch the money.
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
Yeah I would not want to be the one who committed a crime that has every high functioning autist on the planet spending eternity trying to catch me out. I imagine the stress of their actions eats them alive every single day.
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
It's true - Dacoinminster is officially the earliest known person to model Bitcoin's price using a power law. And its prediction to today's price is remarkably accurate for over 13 years ago.
A guy on Bitcointalk drew this in Excel in 2013 when bitcoin was $25. He never touched it again. It’s still 100% right ,let's see what it predicts...
On the 13th Feb 2013 a user called dacoinminster dumps whatever price history he can find into a spreadsheet, lets Excel fit a power trendline, and writes it down:
Price = 4.42 × 10⁻¹⁷ × (days since Jan 3, 2009)^5.6
He wasn’t building a theory of money. He was arguing 2011 had been the bubble and 2013 wasn’t. The line said about $27 that week. Price was $25.
Nobody refit it. No “updated for this cycle.” Same two numbers for 13 and a half years.
Let's take a look at how this formula predicts Bitcoin's price in the near future.
Detailed explanation in first comment below and see chart as well pls. 👇👇👇
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
Calling me poor and retarded? When you are the one faking million dollar screenshots by using the demo account and not even understanding that there is a particular difference from the real account????? 🤣🤣🤣🤣 You've been made.
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
I hope you are aware that the screenshots you post are from the DEMO account right? And they are nowhere near the real screenshots from the real accounts? Anyone following you and is in awe of your fake screenshots if either easily duped or had never traded before! The only money you are earning is from X engagement farming
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
I have just registered for this in Malta. Can't wait for it to arrive and will tell you all how it compares to my current cable connection. During the past months I lost 2 days working time as the internet got cut for a long time, official explanation from the cable company: a contractor hit our cable whilst doing road patching works! Anyways can't wait for Starlink to be installed.
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
I hope you are aware that the screenshots you post are from the DEMO account right? And they are nowhere near the real screenshots from the real accounts? Anyone following you and is in awe of your fake screenshots if either easily duped or had never traded before! The only money you are earning is from X engagement farming.
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
@cryptolaanie please take position to this comment . Or do you Fully agree your a scammer ?
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
I believe that the excessive increase in diesel prices is being brought up by various Governments. Many tax these essential products. Case in point, I live in 🇲🇹 Malta and this is the price of Diesel:
Cost per litre: €1.21
Cost per US gallon: Approx. €4.58 ($4.40 USD)
Malta does not possess any natural resources and imports all oil products.
How much does diesel cost in your country? And how much is the tax on that?
Caffe' Satoshi retweeted
I have 98% of my wealth in Bitcoin Spot. Never touched that, BUT I get bored a lot so I do trade with small leverage (not more than 3x) of my small portion of "reserve" money. Earnings go to use for everyday life (after all we have to enjoy life no?!!!) and any extra income goes to my main Bitcoin holdings, I keep increasing that as much as possible. Many many years ago I was a coder in a hedge fund (did no trading there) but I learned a trick or two! I love following the markets and Geopolitics