In your feed now! @CameronDawson joins @GuyAdami on a special Friday drop of the RiskReversal Podcast 🎙️ YouTube: youtu.be/4czQJgExj6k Apple: apple.co/4BvaPQL Spotify: tinyurl.com/mvw7pjee

“One Chart to Rule Them All”: Cameron Dawson on Chip Margins, SMH & Stock Market Risk on PreMarket Prep Cameron’s thesis is that the market’s resilience depends on one thing, semiconductor earnings, and semis are breaking down while the street still expects margins to keep expanding. $SKHY $SMH $LRCX $KO $WMT @CameronDawson @TripleDTrader @Spus

AI Stocks Could Peak BEFORE Earnings Do — Watch These Warning Signs Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, @CameronDawson and @AdamTaggart discuss one of the biggest risks facing the AI infrastructure boom: AI stocks could peak long before earnings, margins, and demand begin to deteriorate. * Will the AI industry eventually overbuild capacity? Almost certainly. Will some companies experience unsustainably high earnings that eventually normalize? Very likely. But the real question isn't whether these excesses will emerge. It's WHEN investors should start betting against the cycle. * The comparison to the dot-com bubble of 2000 is particularly important. Back then, technology and telecommunications companies reported enormous order backlogs that appeared to justify aggressive infrastructure spending. But when demand weakened, orders were canceled, commitments evaporated, and the investment cycle unraveled. * Today's AI boom is different in one crucial respect: major hyperscalers $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT have much stronger balance sheets than many of the highly leveraged companies driving infrastructure investment in 2000. Still, that doesn't eliminate the risk. If a major frontier AI lab stumbles financially or fails to meet its commitments, the consequences could cascade through hyperscalers, chipmakers $NVDA, memory suppliers $MU $SNDK, and the broader AI infrastructure ecosystem $NBIS $IREN. The biggest challenge? Stocks typically peak BEFORE fundamentals do. * There may be a period when AI companies continue reporting record revenues, expanding backlogs, strong margins, and bullish guidance, yet their stock prices stop responding positively. That's the cognitive dissonance investors need to recognize. The fundamentals can keep looking better even as the market begins pricing in slower growth ahead. * Cameron highlights two particularly important indicators: 1. South Korea's KOSPI: One of the highest-beta expressions of the AI infrastructure trade. Despite strong results from companies in the index, expectations for stable gross margins through 2027, and growing compute demand from consumer-facing AI agents, the KOSPI has been trading surprisingly poorly. Could this be the canary in the coal mine, signaling that markets are beginning to anticipate peak AI growth? * 2. $SOXX: Semiconductor stocks are another critical barometer. When price action fails to confirm strong fundamentals, investors should question whether the market is anticipating a change in the earnings cycle. * Importantly, peak growth doesn't necessarily mean the AI boom is over. Spending and revenues could continue increasing even as growth rates decelerate. But stocks priced for extraordinary expansion can struggle when expectations begin to normalize. * The takeaway: don't confuse recognizing an eventual AI overbuild with knowing when to short the sector. Many AI-related stocks remain in established uptrends without confirmed topping formations. Betting against them too early can be just as costly as ignoring a genuine reversal. So, respect the trend, but don't ignore the risk. Watch $SOXX, the KOSPI, order backlogs, and how stocks react to strong earnings. The AI boom doesn't have to end for AI stocks to start falling. The market may recognize peak growth well before the financial statements reveal it. * 💡 Get access to notes with the key takeaways from this interview by visiting Thoughtful Money Substack (link in the @AdamTaggart 's bio)

BREAKSCLUSIVE: @Skydance synergies will not put donatello out on the street. @TMNT @CameronDawson

"Households now have more wealth in the equity market than they do in their homes... it's the first time that's happened in multiple decades." @CameronDawson to @dmoses34 on why the stock market has quietly become the thing the economy can't afford to have go down 🏡📈