Polls and politics
London, England
Joined July 2011
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Cameron Garrett retweeted
As Liberal Democrat conference gets properly underway our new polling finds that the “Gail’s test” continues to hold true. Lib Dems over perform their national polling by 7 points among those who say they have a Gail’s on their high street, same with Pret!
Cameron Garrett retweeted
New polling on willingness to vote tactically finds a big left/right disparity
-76% of Green voters would consider voting Labour tactically, 72% Lib Dem
-74% of Lib Dems would consider Labour, 69% Green & 53% Tory
-77% of Labour voters would consider Lib Dem, 62% Green, 49% Tory
Cameron Garrett retweeted
We’ve arrived in Birmingham for the Reform UK party conference! We’re holding a total of 7 events including our flagship event, ‘Where next for Reform, at 11am on Friday.
@christopherhope, @Fox_Claire, @AlexWilsonAM, @NadineDorries, @GoodwinMJ and @MrHarryCole.
Cameron Garrett retweeted
This is why Holborn and St Pancras beyond Polanski running matters - because of what it means for consolidation of the left bloc. Since Burnham came to power Labour have consolidated their hold on the left bloc, at the same time as Reform’s share of the right bloc has slipped.
My really boring summer opinion: Let’s stop reporting polls with a point between Reform and Labour as either of them losing or regaining their lead when really all changes are firmly in the margin of error and it remains a statistical dead heat 🤷♂️
Cameron Garrett retweeted
Our latest voting intention sees a cross over. Labour move ahead by 4. Their first lead since March 2025 & highest share since Nov 24
🌹 LAB 28% (+4)
⏩ REF 24% (-2)
🌳 CON 22% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (+1)
🟢 GREEN 8% (-3)
🟡 SNP 2% (nc)
N = 2061| Dates 24-27/7| Change w 22/7
Burnham is doing comms better not only with the slick social media videos, but also the trickling of individual cost of living announcements rather than just one package. It means each policy is getting its own headlines each day and will help with cut through.
Pubs, clubs and live music venues in England to get 20% business rates cut from April, UK PM Andy Burnham announces bbc.in/4yCtloL
He'll be hoping to avoid the situation faced by Starmer where similar cost of living measures designed to "ease the pressure" were among his most popular policies (e.g. freezing prescription charges, rail fares) - but also had the lowest cut through
Cameron Garrett retweeted
NEW: Andy Burnham hits a higher approval rating in week 1 than Keir Starmer ever managed, according to @Moreincommon_
Very pleased to make an @opinionbriefpod debut this week talking about the issue voters consistently tell us is the biggest issue facing the country - the cost of living 💵 📈
Bumper @opinionbriefpod out!
- What voters think of Farage’s £5 million gift
- With @AnnaCMcShane how are failings in maternity care affecting women’s trust in public services.
- Why cost of living is still shaping politics
- What pop artists say about your politics
tr.ee/KasOq-wGy2
Cameron Garrett retweeted
Number of people who’ve messaged me saying “Thomas who” in response to this suggests Westminster might be slightly on a different wave length to the rest of the country.
This is obviously moving in the right direction for Labour but think it’s too early for people to use it to judge the size of any “Burnham Bounce” in the polls - he’s not even PM yet
What will Keir Starmer's legacy be?
When we asked the public for his greatest achievements, coming out on top were:
1⃣ "Nothing" - a sign of how deeply negative public opinion became
2⃣ The Iran War
3⃣ Handling of Trump
4⃣ And a bit further back - NHS / Waiting lists
