Investing is hard
Down the capital stack
Joined December 2019
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Congrats to $JSEBEL on launching a rental and used equipment initiative. This has been the company's dream for over a decade, but they've always said they need the balance sheet of a larger partner to fund it. I hope they can find that larger partner!
Tho a friend points out that HCM doesn't need Bell's involvement to do rentals within their network. So the more interesting implication here is that rentals will be extended beyond the Landcros network. Harder to square with a partnership, easier to square with an acquisition.
Another reason this tweet is wrong: owning the rental channel makes less sense in the construction-heavy US. $jsebel rental efforts will be in mining-heavy Africa and LatAm, presumably with Itochu's balance sheet.
Instinct is great. Been making and cancelling appointments with it, making online orders with it. Already a time saver. Obviousiy the frontier labs will have to offer something similar, but will they be able to charge for it, or will margins just compress?
RT @atelicinvest: Looking for someone really fucking good at
- agentic masking
- agentic 3d model building - measurement level accuracy…
The AI trade has wrong-way risk. If AI valuations end up being justified, you'll get richer regardless of whether you own stocks. If AI valuations aren't justified, you'll be puking the same stocks everyone else is.
Basically I think either the Rokbak shutdown created a jump ball that HCM & Bell had no choice but to respond to, or else HCM is just being conservative and integrating the US before acquiring IA Bell for R150+ per $jsebel share...
And to reiterate a point I made yesterday, the newly-created channel conflict in the US makes no sense if Bell will remain independent. It would be reckless. I also doubt so many HCM dealers would have added Bell recently without HCM tapping them on the shoulder. So: a deal.
My "For You" feed remains exquisitely tailored to my portfolio interests as long as I never once click on the Tweets that are like "Teen mother deemed too low IQ for trial after corpse of alien discovered in--"
So HCM press released the Yanmar MOU yesterday, but only mentioned the $jsebel North America tie-up in passing in their earnings today. No mention of their clear plans to bring Bell to MENA and LatAm. I wonder why the staged approach.
One possible explanation for the contradictions above is that BTA is going to be wound down & everything moved to Landcros. Probably that's why BTA dealers were brought to Richards Bay last month. Maybe Rokbak's closure forced HCM/Bell to make public moves before they were ready
