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Helping employees build wealth | Former analyst with 4k subs | Join the Portfolios & Bedtime Stories newsletter 💼🌙 | Not financial advice

Oregon, USA
Joined March 2023
Photo by Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth (@CheatcodeWealth)Photo by Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth (@CheatcodeWealth)Photo by Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth (@CheatcodeWealth)Photo by Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth (@CheatcodeWealth)Photo by Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth (@CheatcodeWealth)Photo by Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth (@CheatcodeWealth)Photo by Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth (@CheatcodeWealth)Photo by Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth (@CheatcodeWealth)Photo by Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth (@CheatcodeWealth)Photo by Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth (@CheatcodeWealth)
Join the newsletter for busy employees building wealth, written by a busy employee building wealth. No entrepreneurship needed. portfoliosbedtimestories.kit…
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In 2017 I bought a house for $215,000. In 2021, I sold it for $365,000. Aside from a few small improvements, the house didnt change much. Now imagine buying a house in 1977. That's life as a boomer.
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Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth retweeted
If you made it this far, you made it through the hardest part. Historically, the midterm year is the weakest of the 4 year presidential cycle. What comes next? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after EVERY midterm! The average gain was 15%
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Which is cheap and which is expensive? $QQQ or $SCHD Data from FASTGraphs. Message me if you want to start a free trial.
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There she blows! A bottom if I ever saw one!
It is a stock-pocalypse
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$QQQ puke to $660 is my best guess. Within 2 weeks I would say.
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$QQQ is not done bleeding. Price is almost to the 200 day MA. First gap down but volume is subdued. RSI stretching but not extreme. CoT is still unbalanced. Hold on tight folks.
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Most new investors fall in love with a property and then try to make the numbers work. Run every deal through 4 filters before you get attached. Go deeper: target cash-on-cash return of 8% minimum, 10% to 12% ideally, and a DSCR of 1.2 or better so... portfoliosbedtimestories.kit…
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$GOOG is not dead, yet. A.i. is disrupting search. Time will tell if Google can adapt. Search won't look like it does now in 5 years. Google is down because price got ahead of itself. It's not even at its mean price to cash flow multiple of 18x. Google could go to $191 a share and only touch the bottom of its trading range for P/OCF.
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Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth retweeted
The amazing thing about Google getting hammered today is not that its core Search business is under stress. It’s how long it took investors to figure that out. AI is changing the regime under which the hyperscalers became some of the highest-return-on-capital businesses in human history. Google & Meta, and to a lesser extent Amazon, are at the centre of this disruption. They became the modern-day landlords of the digital economy. Google auctioned search intent. Meta auctioned attention. Amazon auctioned product discovery. They controlled access to consumers and charged advertisers increasingly expensive rents for the privilege. Beautiful low capital intensive businesses. Until the rules change. AI is doing precisely that,faster than the internet revolution that created these empires. I barely use a web browser for search anymore. It has degenerated into a window for opening websites. Why scroll through sponsored links & SEO garbage for dog food when an AI assistant can find what I need? I doubt I am alone. Their response? Join the party and build staggering amounts of compute. Google alone is heading towards US$200bn of capex in 2026, while its Search growth is already slowing. Clayton Christensen explained the problem in Innovator’s Dilemma. Incumbents struggle when technological disruption destroys the economics of the very businesses that made them successful. But throwing trillions at the disruptive technology won’t make another high ROIC units. Instead it renders the entire shop average. Worse, AI is on track to become commoditised, with economics eventually resembling airline seats: enormous fixed costs, relentless capacity additions, falling unit prices and fierce competition. Models become cheaper, more interchangeable and increasingly tailored to individual needs. Much of that intelligence will eventually run locally on personal devices. Who pays the landlord when the tenants no longer need his building? In 2025, Google generated US$225bn from Search, Meta US$196bn from advertising. How much of that can they defend, let alone replace, while committing hundreds of billions to a data centre arms race? It’s just ridiculous. In 2 years time they can buy these zero-moat compute factories for 20 cent on the $. The problem is the moat. I’d argue that 98% of businesses have no durable moat. Schumpeter’s creative destruction eventually erodes any competitive advantages in a free enterprise system, growth fades and returns on capital gravitate towards 5–7% as competition brings supply into balance with demand. Bruce Greenwald explained in Competition Demystified just how hard it is to build a economic moat. My favourite is what Buffett calls share of mind. Try displacing Coca-Cola, Pampers or WD-40 with a 5% discount. Good luck. Where is AI’s moat? Switching costs are near zero. I switch bw 4-6 models and already use 2 specialised AIs for commodities, each offering proprietary data and knowledge depth. If at all, I see opportunity for high ROICs in owning scarce, valuable info & domain expertise rather than another tech layer. But that is hardly the 10 trn-dollar TAM that spoiled Google & Meta executives want to present on their next earnings calls. They think unrealistically big, with precious little capital discipline. Instead of accepting that the regime change, rest assured that they will throw endless good money after bad. Like 100% sure! History offers zero comfort for that process. Look at the former kings of the S&P 500: AT&T, GM, DuPont, IBM, Exxon, Kodak, Sears, Xerox, GE, Philip Morris, Pfizer, Citigroup, Intel or PanAm. Some went bust, others lost dominance; few retained their extraordinary economics. Expect Google to join the decay list.
As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty: This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries Google’s response? Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for A few examples to illustrate: For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact -match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)” The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants) This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future This is now no longer the case At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose
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Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth retweeted
As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty: This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries Google’s response? Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for A few examples to illustrate: For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact -match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)” The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants) This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future This is now no longer the case At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose
Q2 was an amazing quarter, with our AI investments redefining what’s possible across every part of our business. Alphabet revenue grew 24% YoY and Google Cloud accelerated to 82% growth. We saw exciting momentum across the board from Search to YouTube to the Gemini app (which reached 950M monthly active users). Our model APIs are processing 22B tokens/min (up from 16B+ last quarter) driven by our workhorse Flash models. We’re also seeing great adoption of Gemini Enterprise, used by 90% of the Fortune 100, as well as strong demand for our security solutions. Outstanding results and momentum, and such an exciting moment—thanks to all of our partners and employees around the world! 🙌 About to hop on the call!
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Cramer says losing money buys $IREN & $NBIS: “We don’t want IREN. There’s this thing called losing money. Losing money buys IREN and it buys Nebius.”
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This is whats happening in the $QQQ: Speculators are too long. Earnings are coming in slightly under expectations. Its triggering a rebalancing and rotation. At a minimum the 200DMA should be tested and perhaps much more, until the CoT resolves its extremity.
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Garrett🔸️CheatCode Wealth retweeted
The biggest problem with ServiceNow $NOW is its massive stock based compensation If you deduct SBC from its “adjusted” net income, earnings actually DECLINED by $100 million YoY. A very different picture from the headline numbers.
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If your company has a wellness, phone, or home office stipend and you haven't submitted a receipt this quarter, you're turning down part of your pay. Set a quarterly reminder. portfoliosbedtimestories.kit…
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My favorite indicators of a stock that might be a fit for my portfolio: 1. Competitive moat 2. Founder led 3. Buybacks
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Clearly, X has become overrun with a.i. generated content. They use the same click bait strategies. Im losing interest.
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Your nanny cancels. Daycare closes for a snow day. Most parents take a PTO day. Some pay $20 for a full day of backup care instead. Use the full allotment and you can save $400 to $500 a year, plus keep your PTO for actual vacations. portfoliosbedtimestories.kit…
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Owning businesses is the path to superb wealth. You have three choices: A. Build a business from scratch and commit your life to it. B. Buy an existing business and commit your life to it. C. Buy a slice of a business and sit back and do nothing. I prefer C. Most people would, too.
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Your employer can pay up to $5,250 a year toward your student loans tax-free under Section 127. Ask HR if they offer it. If they don't, ask for it in your next negotiation. portfoliosbedtimestories.kit…
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There are three ways to make money picking stocks: 1. Be extremely lucky 2. Do a lot of diligence 3. Copy insiders In my newsletter we cover #2 and #3.
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