UPDATE on our favorite $219 a month gremlin 😆💀
Alpine Fox marked to today's close: down about 29% since Mike Alfred's June 30 13F. Strip out the bitcoin calls and the stock book is down about 43%.
$CIFR alone, his 40% position, is down 68% and cost roughly $56M.
Last time I ran the numbers it was ugly. It got uglier.
Same method as before: took the holdings from his last three 13Fs, assumed nothing changed inside each quarter, chained the returns, and marked the June 30 book to the 4pm close today.
Since June 30: about -29%, roughly -$61M on a $211M book
Stocks only, no calls: about -43%
Since my last mark at the Oct 14 close: another -6%, about -$10M
YTD: about -13%, or -17% on stocks only
Why YTD looks "only" -13%: Q2 was a +39% monster, mostly CIFR doubling. He's now giving back the spring and then some. And in dollar terms the book was biggest right at the June 30 peak, right before the drop.
The damage since June 30:
$CIFR $24.50 to $7.94, down 68%, about -$56M. Down another 20% just since Oct 14. At ~40% of the book that one name knocks about 26 points off the whole portfolio by itself.
$IREN $45.73 to $24.91, down 45%, about -$15.6M. Down 18% since Oct 14.
$OPEN down 57%, about -$12.5M. Nearly tripled the position in Q2, right before it got cut in half.
$BKKT down 35%. He took it from a token stake to 905K shares in Q2.
What's still holding it up:
$IBIT calls up about $14M on paper
$ASST up 166%, about +$10M
$ETHA up 52%
$BMNR up 68%
Caveats, same as last time:
1. 13Fs are stale. This is the June 30 book. If he trimmed CIFR in July, the real number is better. We find out around Nov 16.
2. No strikes or expiries on the IBIT calls in the filing, so I treat them as moving 1:1 with IBIT. That's the best case for those calls. If anything the real number is worse, closer to the stocks only figure.
3. No shorts, cash, or directly held crypto in a 13F. This is a clone of the public book, not his reported performance.
4. Adjusted for the ETHA 1:3 reverse split, Strive's 1:20, and BBBY becoming NXH.
And to the loyal subscribers warming up in the replies again: yes, I still don't have his trade blotter, his option strikes, or his fund statements. This is a model built on public filings with every assumption spelled out above, and the real number could be better or worse. If he wants to post actual YTD net returns, I'll happily update and give credit where it's due. Until then, I showed my work.
The one trade we can see since June: a 13D for a 5%+ stake in Sono Group $SSM, about 315K shares bought late September at ~$1.18. Closed at $1.13 today.
Concentrated book, swings hard both ways. Right now it's swinging one way. Might be time to switch to the boxed wine.
Q3 13F should land around Nov 16. Will update then.
Not financial advice. My own estimates from public SEC filings.
OG Copycat mix. Many requests for this. Check it out y’all!! 💀🫶🏻
open.spotify.com/track/00qO7…
Chich “I’m just a kid” Bull™️ retweeted
Replying to @gnoble79
Nicoski to Eladio “ we could spend trillions going into Uranus.” this is the alpha we all need and deserve. 😂
Last chance gaining steam everyday!! Let’s go!! open.spotify.com/track/73V0f…
Yo! Have u listened to this yet? C’mon. TELL WHAT U THINK! I think this is some of my best werk!!! I ain’t t fuqin round y’all!! 💀🫶🏻
open.spotify.com/track/3zuVY…
Chich “I’m just a kid” Bull™️ retweeted
I JUST GOT OFF A VERY IMPORTANT CALL WITH YOUR MOM. SHE LEANED OVER, WHISPERED IN MY EAR AND SAID “ I CANT GET ENOUGH OF THIS NEW CHICH BULL MUSIC NOW ON ALL STREAMING PLATFORMS”..🚀💀🫶🏻🤣
Tickr Slutz.
One of my earliest tracks, helium voice and all, and somehow still the one people ask about most.
Guess fintwit knows its own.
Used the original demo as the blueprint and built out from there. Redid the drums. Nudged the tempo
up, the original dragged. More strings, and I tempered the Rhodes back. Re-cut the vocals but kept the amped-up helium, and tweaked the ending
and the outro.
Verse melody shifted a touch, but the soul of the original is intact. That part mattered to me.
Want to thank a few Slutz who inspired this one:
@MoneyPrinter @NotWEEDS1234 @flourishcapital
@timber001
Hope you enjoy it as much as I enjoyed rebuilding it! 💀🫶🏻
open.spotify.com/album/0Q1gS…
OK, so y’all have asked for it and I’m now in the process of delivering it for you!! this has been a lot of work and I will get into the details upon its release. . Stay tuned and it should be out for the weekend!!🤣🤣🤣🤣
I JUST GOT OFF A VERY IMPORTANT CALL WITH YOUR MOM. SHE LEANED OVER, WHISPERED IN MY EAR AND SAID “ I CANT GET ENOUGH OF THIS NEW CHICH BULL MUSIC NOW ON ALL STREAMING PLATFORMS”..🚀💀🫶🏻🤣
Some OG shit here! Real happy with the mix here. Don’t forget to follow on Spotify! 💀🫶🏻
open.spotify.com/album/7wBHj…
It’s out y’all. Yes Chich gettin a bit serious here. Hope y’all can play along🤣🤣🤣💀🫶🏻
open.spotify.com/track/3zuVY…










