✍️ analysis @InsiderEng, @CEPA, & @Tochnyi; news @ArchivesDefense | Procurement, arms sales & security assistance➡️🇺🇦🇮🇱🇹🇼 | DMs open for inquiries
Toronto, Ontario
Joined February 2016
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ATACMS. What is it? Why does it matter so much? How many are there? How many will Ukraine get? Every question you could possibly have, answered. It's the thread you've all been waiting for... 🧵 (1/72)
ALT ATACMS test firing, White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico.
Colby Badhwar retweeted
For the international crowd, the Conservative Party of British Columbia won because it purged the more MAGA wing of the party in a civil war.
Colby Badhwar retweeted
They broke Eisenhower’s globe because they didn’t want to wait for a team of specialist historians to move it.
I cannot think of a more apt metaphor for Pete Hegseth’s DoD.
Colby Badhwar retweeted
Reminder that Starshield is the SpaceX business unit for government/defense customers. The Starlink-based constellation owned by the DoD is the Space Data Network (SDN).
Most terminals in Ukraine are not connected via the SDN. They are commercial terminals on Starshield plans paid via various contracts with the U.S., Germany, and others.
I have real reservations about this claim. Starshield is bound by mountains of terms of service between the Pentagon on SpaceX. The idea that Musk just pulled and Office Space in Starlink HQ and told the watch worker to put up a speed gate on terminals around Ukraine sounds like a massive problem for the Pentagon as well as Ukraine. So yeah, I have real questions here.
Colby Badhwar retweeted
Part of the reason why we need to spend so much on our nuclear missiles is, we didn’t invest much in them for a few decades.
I’m begging you all to understand, deferring spending on this is not viable.
Colby Badhwar retweeted
Given current resourcing across the DOD, PACOM etc, and due to the precision and density of missile threats, the DOD continues to priorities investments in dynamic dispersal, expeditionary agility, and rapid operational recovery over static target protection. This is most definitly not because the latter is not needed or seen as irrelevant.
Obviously if the PDI, and other investment vehicles were better resourced they would fully fund all dozen or so measures across this spectrum that they continue to show an interest in. But until that happens, HAS investments would probably rank below about half a dozen other ACE 'enablers' that compete for the same funds each year.
BTW, as far as I remember, the last HAS completion was funded by ROK.
Colby Badhwar retweeted
I wish people would understand that while having more HAS would certainly be desirable, there are competing priorities at play here.
What programs should we cut to get more HAS?
Colby Badhwar retweeted
People got really mad at me for pointing this out a few weeks ago, but simply having some weapons isn’t sufficient; we need to have the ability to produce weapons at scale given the adversaries we are facing. 1/2
Colby Badhwar retweeted
Right. Many are trying to avoid the obvious reality—which has been forced on us and is not of our choosing—that we are facing a more dangerous world and need to return to Cold War levels of military spending.
Scapegoating Ukraine and Israel, or attempting to appease Russia and Iran, will not alter this fundamental reality.
Emphasis on the last point. In the absence of both drawdowns to Ukraine and CENTCOM expenditures during the Biden Admin, interceptor stocks would still not have lasted very long. Procurement quantities have simply been anemic.
See Talon (THAAD) below as an exmple.
Colby Badhwar retweeted
Some context: the Army has wanted a Future lower tier interceptor for a while. Something to cover the gap between where PAC-3 MSE tops out and where THAAD starts. IBCS and LTAMDS had to come first so Patriot could engage threats at those higher altitudes, ranges and velocities on its own. Additionaly, Patriot launcher had to integrate with THAAD so THAAD could launch these additional lower cost interceptors and expand its envelope. Both of those things are now well on their way. The Army first wanted this future interceptor “by the late 2020s,” then 2030. If LT-FI kicks off next year and gets funded this time, we can expect it to finally reach the troops by the early to mid 2030s. Or about half a decade late to need. If not longer.
🇺🇸 At #AUSA General Lozano tells me that Future Interceptor is now a Program of Record.
PAC-3 Edge (pictured) is Lockheed Martin's offering for the requirement.
🇺🇸 At #AUSA General Lozano tells me that Future Interceptor is now a Program of Record.
PAC-3 Edge (pictured) is Lockheed Martin's offering for the requirement.
❗🇺🇸 Update:
Gen Lozano says that they expect to get support for the program, and that by this time next year he may be in a position to begin program of record execution.
Different acquisition strategies are being considered, Middle Tier Acquisition is the current preference.
For an industry perspective: Lockheed Martin says the capability is definitely needed in order to meet next generation threats.
ALT Illustrative photo of a ballistic missile defense engagement.
Colby Badhwar retweeted
Trump could have had it all: a Nobel Peace Prize, low gas prices, and Iran on its knees.
Instead, he fucked everything up.
Instead of senselessly bombing Iran, believing in the degenerate idea that a zealous authoritarian regime would simply collapse if you killed its leadership, he could have:
1. Tightened sanctions against Russia.
2. Provided more military aid to Ukraine.
3. Combined low energy prices with the two measures above to finally bring Russia's war against Ukraine to an end and pacify Russia.
4. Worked with grateful European allies and Ukraine to form a coalition to end Iran's nuclear ambitions, instead of launching a war without a plan to secure the Strait of Hormuz and keep energy flowing.
Instead, he started useless trade wars with America's allies, without even having the legal authority to do so, cut aid to Ukraine, colluded with Russia, fucked up the global energy market, and drove up gas prices for Americans.
Now, in a desperate attempt to save his approval ratings, he's doing the exact opposite of what he should be doing.
He's threatening Ukraine with a cutoff of American weapons sales, undermining the American defense manufacturing industry in the middle of an energy crisis that he helped create.
And now, desperately trying to score political points, he's attempting to save the Russian energy sector and shift the blame for his fucked-up war in the Middle East onto Ukraine.
Buying Russian diesel will have almost zero impact on energy prices, but it could help Russia prolong its war against Ukraine for another year or two.
Trump could have strengthened America's alliances, weakened Russia, helped Ukraine win the war, contained Iran, and delivered lower energy prices to American consumers.
Instead, he's a complete fuck-up who is costing Americans and the rest of the world hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of Ukrainian lives, for no other fucking reason than his complete and utter stupidity.
🇺🇸🇺🇦 I've said it before, and will say again now in concurrence with Michael. Cutting PURL would hurt the United States as much, if not more, than it would Ukraine. The damage becomes even more apparent when you consider the paltry potential "gain" to be had by accepting Russian diesel, as Michael highlights.
I have to conclude that both this and the refinery ceasefire are Russian proposals that were fed to Witkoff and Kushner and told sell it to President Trump, who is unsurprisingly biting. His track record of backing terrible deals only grows longer.
The Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List is how the United States sells weapons to Europe, which are then provided for Ukraine’s defenses. The price tag for these weapons is in the billions of dollars (upwards of $6.7 billion to date), orders of magnitude higher than what the Russian diesel deal is worth. Trump would be losing money — and costing the American defense industry revenue — for a sham deal with Russia that benefits none outside of Moscow and Miami. Just to give you a sense of his prioritized requirements.
Colby Badhwar retweeted
Thank you, Katie, for remembering the Holodomor, and for reminding the world that Moscow’s effort to subjugate Ukraine did not begin in 2022.
Nearly a century ago, Stalin’s Soviet regime engineered a famine that starved millions of Ukrainians and sought to break a people whose national identity and desire for self-determination it viewed as a threat.
Today, the methods are different, but the underlying evil is hauntingly familiar - Ukrainians killed, children taken, communities destroyed, and a nation’s identity targeted for erasure.
The Holodomor was genocide. What Russia is doing in Ukraine today is a continuation of that same genocidal project. It is the conscious attempt to destroy a people because they refuse to cease being Ukrainian.
Thank you for remembering, and not letting the world look away.
Colby Badhwar retweeted
Over the past few days and weeks, I’ve seen plenty of half-truths and misinformation regarding Germany and Ukraine, and the supply of Patriot fire units and missiles. So here’s a detailed educational tweet from me on the subject.
— What has Germany provided to Ukraine so far?
As of the 11th of August 2026, Germany had supplied Ukraine with five MIM-104 Patriot fire units from Bundeswehr stocks. Each fire unit was supplied together with at least several dozen missiles and spare parts.
To my knowledge, 333 PAC-2/PAC-3 missiles were confirmed supplied to Ukraine from Bundeswehr stocks alone. However, this figure does not include the missiles that were delivered alongside fire units 4 and 5. Based on previous deliveries, the figure is likely to be closer to 400, although there is no official confirmation of this.
Apart from the US, no one else has supplied more missiles to Ukraine, and when it comes to the number of fire units delivered, no other country has actually supplied more than Germany. A small number of countries have contributed financially to these deliveries from Bundeswehr stocks. These include, for example, Norway and Lithuania.
— Is that all?
In addition, Germany is funding the supply of Patriot ammunition through both the PURL mechanism and JUMPSTART.
Most recently, in June 2026, a further $400 million was pledged. $200 million was invested in PURL, largely to procure interceptors, whilst a further $200 million was invested in JUMPSTART to procure solely PAC-3 missiles for Ukraine. In both programmes together, Germany has at least invested $1.1 billion.
Germany is also (though not exclusively through this initiative) regularly committed to sourcing further air defence equipment to Ukraine via its own EAAD initiative (Enduring Action on Air Defence).
A few months ago, for example, the German government attempted to source a further 35 PAC-3 missiles for Ukraine within Europe, holding talks with various governments over a period of several weeks. In the end, almost all the missiles requested were delivered to Ukraine.
Also, government representatives including Chancellor Merz were or still are recently/currently in talks with for example the Greek government about the transfer of Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
— What about the production in Germany?
As early as next year, the new PAC-2 GEM-T production line in Germany will begin delivering the first of around 600 Patriot missiles to Ukraine, which the German government has contracted.
The contract is worth around €3.2 billion and will be completed by 2031 meaning that Germany will starting next year deliver a high double-digit to low-three digit number of PAC-2 GEM-T missiles to Ukraine every year constantly for the foreseeable future.
— Final words
I hope you found the tweet insightful and informative. I’d be happy to answer any further questions in the comments.
Finally, I would like to point out that, in addition to financing and supplying Patriot-related equipment, Germany continues to supply Ukraine with a very wide range of other air defence systems and related equipment.
For example, every year, three new IRIS-T SLM/SLS fire units as well as hundreds of missiles are supplied to Ukraine. In addition, tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition are supplied every year for the Gepard/Cheetah SPAAGs and Skynex fire units. Germany also continues to supply MANPADS, EW equipment, interceptor drones and much more.
German companies like HENSOLDT and Diehl Defence are also part of the FREYJA project and supply critical components to enable Ukraine (@FirePointUA) to build their own GBAD system with anti-ballistic capabilities which aims to be put into service next year.
/GAU
Colby Badhwar retweeted
Folks here are acting shocked that Lockheed needs 18 months to get PAC-3 ACE to initial flight test. Like it's trivial to build a new Patriot & IBCS compliant missile that costs a third to half of what the MSE costs and still handles over half its threats. And by the way, not one Patriot customer, including the US, has put a single dollar toward developing ACE yet. Lockheed isn't going to push anything operationally capable until that money shows up. (📹CNBC)
Lockheed Martin has announced the introduction of the PAC-3 Adapted Capability Effector (PAC-3 ACE), a low-cost interceptor built to defeat a wide range of air and missile threats for less than half the cost of a PAC-3 MSE per unit. ~ Lockheed Martin
🔸Designed to counter air-breathing threats, cruise missiles, close-range & short-range ballistic missiles
🔸Uses highly effective and battle-proven PAC-3 software and IBCS integration to shorten development cycles. 🔗👇
Colby Badhwar retweeted
New from me at @TheAtlantic, with a bit of reporting, on how Ukraine went from a nation fighting to survive to a 'model ally,' to borrow a certain vogue phrase in MAGA-land. Ukrainian tech is helping to protect American lives in the Middle East and their MacGyvering tactics are now even being used by U.S. forces in theatre. Also, why granting Kyiv a license to manufacture Patriots makes perfect sense -- for the United States. theatlantic.com/internationa…
Colby Badhwar retweeted
Wrote this with @JimmySecUK years ago about Turkey’s security assistance to Ukraine—much of which (e.g. cluster munitions) went under the radar at the time. Now Erdogan seems OK with advertising it. yahoo.com/news/turkey-suppor…
Colby Badhwar retweeted
Excellent news
❗️🇹🇷🇺🇸🇺🇦 The US State Department has approved the Third Party Transfer of 70 M39 ATACMS, 12 M270 MLRS, 2,524 M26 DPICM MLRS rockets, and 47,000 M509A1 203mm DPICM howitzer rounds from Turkiye to Ukraine.
The two TPT cases were formally notified to Congress this past Monday. The transfers can be executed immediately following completion of the 30 day Congressional review period.
