Commodities and emerging / submerging markets specialist. ‘My formula for success is rise early, work hard, and strike oil.' - J. Paul Getty and ME
Joined May 2021
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Expect some big headlines to come from this…
reuters.com/world/us/trump-e…
The classic tale of a good analyst realizing he probably should have never become a fund manager.
Picking stocks and managing risk are two similar, but different jobs...
Constraints have always flowed upstream...
One of the most underappreciated ways to play the AI semiconductor buildout may be through materials rather than chips themselves.
As the industry races to produce more advanced semiconductors, demand isn’t just rising for GPUs and wafer fab equipment, it’s rising for the critical materials that make modern chips possible. (1/6)🧵
Oil is the most important market that investors don't seem to care about – and aren’t paying enough attention to…
But it has driven almost all of Trump's (and Bessent’s) decision-making around US actions on Iran and energy policy. While the headlines focused on military and diplomatic actions, Trump was fixated on the one variable that matters most to him – keeping oil prices from spiraling higher and out of control.
We went after Venezuela first, partially because Iran had a close friendship with the Maduro regime - and gave them a foothold in the western hemisphere. Mostly, because they have the biggest oil reserves in the world, and suffice it to say, mismanaged and underutilized production potential. This oil doesn't start flowing the day after Maduro is gone, but it impacts sentiment and maybe even the back end of the curve.
Next up was Iran, and that proved to be a more difficult challenge. As it turns out, the IRCG is indeed a death cult, and they don't give up easily - or maybe at all. Closing the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, along with fertilizer, food, and things most people (outside of mining) don't even think about - like sulphuric acid.
Draining the SPR, and timing announcements while the oil market was open, while timing actions when the oil market was closed proved to be an incredible strategy. Had you told me 5-10 yrs ago all that has happened over the past 6 months, I would have said oil would be $200+ easily. And it was not. I would credit Bessent with a lot of this, as he understands markets better than just about anyone – especially when he has multiple tools at his disposal to add his own brand of alpha. All while keeping his eyes focused on maintaining USD dominance through tactical liquidity management.
With the so-called 'affordability crisis' in the US hitting Trump's approval ratings, particularly into midterm elections (when sitting Presidents usually lose ground in Congress), he had to do something. I believe one of Trump’s greatest skills is the ability to simplify complex systems – and one of the primary data points that hits his approval ratings is average US fuel prices. This has had one of the most durable negative correlations with US Presidential approval ratings, even today.
All else equal, nearly half of the US Navy would have remained in the Persian Gulf, and I think he would have taken over (or taken out) Kharg Island. But that was too risky to consider, realistically. I had positioned part of my portfolio for this potential chaos, but took a good kick in the stomach instead. Lesson learned!
Instead, we get this MOU to reopen the Strait, and while I was surprised by its timing and content, the deflation in oil prices and gradual resumption of shipping thru the Strait is exactly what the world needed – especially parts of Asia and Africa, who might have been weeks away from chaos given vulnerability to spikes in oil / food prices. As I write this, oil is sitting on the low end of $70/bbl, amazingly. As if nothing had ever happened. As I often say, every country is a handful of meals away from social collapse, and select countries in these regions were already starting to look into that dark abyss.
Looking ahead, what is going to happen? The Strait is kind of open, and that probably continues to gradually improve, albeit with some vessels being attacked here and there – but I don’t think the oil market will pay any attention to this.
Israel and Lebanon seem to somehow, just maybe, be working towards a peaceful agreement. If that plays out, they can tag-team Hezbollah, which has been a thorn in the side of the Lebanese economy for too long.
Meanwhile, we are watching what appears to be a coup in Iraq, aimed at pro-IRCG factions that I bet will be successful in crippling Iran’s influence in Iraq.
After that, the Houthis will find the pointy end of the spear – in some shape or form.
With those actions, Iran’s international capabilities would be greatly crippled. That would pave the way for the US armada to largely leave the Persian Gulf, and steam back to the US.
Despite Iran foolishly attacking their neighbors, some of whom aren't exactly enemies, I think there is little interest in a GCC-organized ground force going into Iran to expunge the IRCG. At one point, it seemed as if the Emiratis and Saudis, along with Kurds and Azeris were considering this move, but it may be unlikely now.
On the way home, for some much-deserved R&R (not to mention vessel maintenance), Cuba will be addressed. I think this action will be more like Venezuela vs Iran, and could be done over a weekend. I may eat my words on that, but it seems entirely likely – given the crippling sanctions that the island’s communist regime has already suffered.
Maybe Nicaragua is next – and that would clean out the bold anti-American enclaves remaining in the western hemisphere. Recent elections in Latam have ALL gone in favor of right-leaning parties, who all appear to be supportive of Trump/US policies.
So in the end, the Donroe Doctrine reigns supreme – and it could all be buttoned up in time for midterm elections. The IRCG will remain a problem, but only with regional reach - which will have to be addressed at some point down the road. We’ll see…
It’s great to have smart minds and great investors like @FutureJurvetson actively involved in the deep-sea mining sector. The increased credibility is leading to reduced discount rates and much, much higher valuations as dreams turn into reality.
This is going to be one of the most impactful investments of the century, and it is going to change the fundamentals of the mining industry forever.
My portfolio is made up of good old-fashioned mining juniors (which I rant about regularly), as well as deep space ($SPCX) and a basket of deep-sea mining companies.
Do your work on this theme!
🌊Good update on the critical metals resting on the deep seabed
TLDR; “Who extracts these minerals will determine more about the next century than most of the decisions being made in Washington… The floor of the Pacific is the last great untapped resource extraction prize on Earth.”
Excerpts: “The target for this mining is a 104.5 million acre stretch of seabed between Mexico and Hawaii known as the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ), where US Geological Survey estimates suggest deposits contain more nickel, cobalt, and manganese than all known worldwide land-based reserves combined. The full CCZ is estimated to contain up to 30 billion metric tons of nodules — a deposit, at current valuations, worth up to $18.4 trillion.
Critical minerals demand is accelerating beyond what the existing supply system was designed to handle. By 2035, EVs could account for as much as 70% of global new car sales. The critical minerals supply system has no plausible path to keeping pace.
In the US alone there are 570 gigawatts of battery storage projects waiting to be added to the grid. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that demand for battery metals could grow by a factor of 30x by 2040 from 2024 levels.
Battery storage costs will fall another 35–55% by 2035. At that level, the economic case for new gas-fired power plants collapses because storage can undercut gas on price while performing the same grid-balancing function. But this plummeting cost curve assumes a steady flow of raw materials, an assumption that currently rests on shaky ground.
The biggest risk to this energy transition is a lack of mines. The IEA estimates the world needs 80 new copper mines, 70 new lithium mines, and 70 new nickel mines to meet projected demand. Historically new copper mines take 15-20 years or longer to come online. Closing this gap through conventional mining alone is functionally impossible.
The structural supply shortage of the materials we need to electrify our economies will redraw the map of global power. Instead of Saudi Arabia and other petrostates holding the world politically hostage, power could shift to what we might call electrostates that possess or control the critical minerals needed for electrification.
The largest electrostate is China. Chinese companies control significant shares of global cobalt and manganese extraction in Africa and elsewhere and have locked up supply through overseas mining investments as part of a deliberate industrial strategy. China is the dominant refiner for 19 of the 20 minerals analyzed in the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. The country manufactures more than 80% of the world’s finished batteries and controls over 98% of lithium iron phosphate battery cell production.
What [Metals Company CEO] Barron was offering President Trump, in his own words, was “an amazing way of catching up from what is a very distant second place to China when it comes to critical minerals.” Four days after that Oval Office meeting, Trump signed an executive order directing the US government to expedite seabed mining licenses in international waters...
Any environmental concerns must be balanced with the reality that open-pit mining is more ecologically destructive than the methods proposed by Western deep-sea mining companies; open-pit mining projects are mostly located in countries with weaker environmental protections than the international frameworks governing the CCZ. The relevant comparison here is between different forms of mineral extraction, because extraction is necessary and environmental costs can only be mitigated, not eliminated.
The Metals Company’s PATANIA III collector vehicle uses hydraulic suction to skim nodules from the seafloor rather than the bulldozing motion of earlier prototypes, reducing sediment disturbance by roughly 90%.
‘Copper is the new oil,’ according to Robert Friedland, a legendary mining industry figure and one of the first investors in Apple. Copper is why the economics of deep-sea mining are becoming newly compelling. Copper has no real substitute. It’s also embedded in virtually every system that carries an electrical current.
China reversed course on deep-sea mining, a position it had resisted for decades. Beijing’s calculation had changed because land-based mineral strategies in Africa were proving expensive, politically unstable, and increasingly exposed. China now holds more deep-sea exploration licenses than any other country and has built a large fleet of research and survey vessels operating across the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
The appeal of deep-sea mining to China, which prizes self-sufficiency above all else, is apparent. The ocean asks nothing of you. Unlike developing nations, the ocean won’t attempt to nationalize your assets or default on a loan or hold elections with unpredictable consequences for your investments.
In the March 2026 issue of Qiushi, the Chinese Communist Party’s top theoretical journal, an editorial declared 'The 21st century is the century of the ocean; whoever wins the ocean wins the future. China is one of the earliest nations in the world to develop and utilize the ocean ... We must deeply implement Xi Jinping’s vision to build a maritime power.'
If the Chinese pursue deep-sea mining as part of an integrated strategy to control the world’s oceans, the US must treat it as a mandatory theatre of competition. The Trump administration is pushing forward. NOAA and the Bureau of Ocean Management are accelerating permitting. In late March, the US and Japan signed a memorandum of cooperation to jointly advance deep-sea mining.
Who extracts these minerals, and under what legal framework, will determine more about the next century than most of the decisions being made in Washington right now. A CCZ developed under American legal frameworks produces a different world than one developed under Chinese state direction, with output flowing into Chinese refineries, Chinese battery factories, and Chinese defense supply chains.
The floor of the Pacific is the last great untapped resource extraction prize on Earth.”
— From: arenamag.com/articles/treasu… $TMC
I can see a Rubio / Gabbard ticket for 2028…
Today, I’m releasing never before seen intelligence revealing new evidence of past US government funding for more than 120 biolabs in over 30 countries, including Ukraine.
In support of President Trump‘s Executive Order to end federal funding of dangerous gain of function research around the world, and increase transparency and accountability, ODNI will continue working with partners across the Administration to identify where these labs are, what pathogens they contain, and what “research” is being conducted.
odni.gov/index.php/newsroom/…
Instead of those who make money as a byproduct of creating wealth and technological innovation, how about a tax (or BAN) on day-trading Congressmen like @RoKhanna instead?
congressstock.com/rankings
Musk is worth more than South Africa’s GDP. @BernieSanders and I proposed a 5% tax on people like him.
In one year, it could fund:
- free public college & trade school
-$10/day childcare
- Special-needs education nationwide
Wealth inequality is the moral failure of our time.
What an absolute CONMAN this clown is.
I’ve never been a believer in bitcoin, so I’ve always seen him as a mousy-voiced snake oil salesman.
Now, it seems that has been the right view all along. For the second time…
Elon Musk @elonmusk is literally Tony Stark 2.0.
Instead of an Ironman suit, Elon’s should be made of tungsten and titanium, with mini Raptor engines for boost…
Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd is one of the best in the business.
I had the pleasure of interacting with him earlier in my career, and his style of analysis is on a level I have rarely seen elsewhere.
This is worth watching at least once!
LIQUIDITY: Dan Dreyfus on the Future of Critical Minerals
-- Copper as the next AI bottleneck
-- Investing in the commodity supercycle
-- Dollar debasement
-- Blue collar boom, rebuilding American infrastructure
(0:00) Dan Dreyfus Presents: The Future of Critical Minerals
(0:33) America's "Capital Light Era" is over, rapid supply/demand shocks
(5:40) Impact of China cutting off the US from critical minerals
(8:18) Copper's Rise: The next 18 years need as much as the last 10,000
(12:00) Dollar Debasement: $140T in debt and why hard assets win
(13:50) The Grid is Dying: Blackouts, bottlenecks, and the craft labor crisis
(19:10) How to invest in the commodity supercycle
Thanks to our partners for making this possible!
EY (@EYnews) - Liquidity, growth, and what’s next for organizations were front and center at the Summit. EY helps turn liquidity challenges into sustainable value.
ey.com/en_us/services/strate…
NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
nyse.com
Plaud (@PLAUDAI) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.
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The US is a country with a spy apparatus attached to it, but China is a spy apparatus with a country attached to it…
The US military has officially branded China’s most powerful civilian tech giants as military entities.
In a massive escalation of the tech cold war, the Pentagon finalized its annual Section 1260H update, formally designating Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD as "Chinese military companies" operating directly or indirectly within the United States. Washington asserts that these corporate giants are deeply entangled in Beijing’s military-civil fusion strategy, serving as conduits for the People’s Liberation Army to access cutting-edge civilian innovations in artificial intelligence, e-commerce, and electric vehicles.
While the designation does not impose immediate blocking sanctions on the private sector, it triggers a severe operational countdown for defense contractors and global supply chains. Beginning June 30, 2026, the Department of Defense is legally barred from securing or renewing contracts with any of the listed firms. Simultaneously, strict new defense regulations will penalize any US entities that engage lobbyists for these blacklisted Chinese firms, setting the stage for a sweeping indirect procurement ban in 2027 that will target any products containing their components.
The reputational and financial fallout is already vibrating through global markets, triggering an immediate drop in Alibaba’s stock as institutional investors scramble to reassess compliance risks. Although Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD have forcefully rejected the Pentagon's classification, asserting they are strictly independent commercial enterprises, Beijing is poised for a fierce diplomatic and economic response. The line between Chinese commerce and military power has been officially erased by Washington, forcing global enterprises to rapidly purge these entities from their networks.
#NationalSecurity #TechWar #Alibaba #Baidu #BYD #Pentagon #SupplyChain #Geopolitics2026
OR… it could be that lower REPORTED crime is a result of less police presence. Possibly a flawed methodology.
“If a tree falls in the forest and nobody is around to hear it, does it make a sound?”
The spice must flow!
Trump said he spoke with the Iranians overnight, warning that if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. will “blow the s— out of them."
Read more: unusualwhales.com/news/trump…
