Continuum Economics

🇺🇸 | We expect a Q3 GDP increase of 2.8% annualized, a modest acceleration from the two preceding quarters to a 4-quarter high. continuumeconomics.com/a/114…

🇪🇺 | French stress and Lagarde comments switch focus to tightening in financial conditions. Past studies show impact from significant episodes with implications for core bond demand, ECB pricing and the wider appetite for risk across FX & markets. continuumeconomics.com/a/6d9…

🇬🇧 | Growth did not contract by 0.1% m/m as consensus had expected, but grew 0.1% in August. While the month-on-month number can be volatile, the more reliable 3-month measure is showing the economy is proving to be a lot more resilient than expected. continuumeconomics.com/a/a11…

🇺🇸 | September’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q3 GDP release which is due at the same time and will include Q3 totals for each of its components. continuumeconomics.com/a/ba9…

🇿🇦 | South Africa’s overall risk score remains at medium. Political violence risk remains high, rooted in inequality; high unemployment (33.6% in Q2) and corruption. continuumeconomics.com/a/2bd…

🇺🇸 | September’s core CPI is stronger than expected at 0.3% and at 0.335% before rounding a clear disappointment, with the strength broader based than August’s 0.29% when almost 0.1% came from what has proven a one-time bounce in telephone services. continuumeconomics.com/a/564…

🇨🇳 | The quiet though large scale action for rural banks takeover and mergers in 2025 shows that the authorities are proactive. This is good long-term, but the transition risks rural and city commercial banks restraining credit supply. continuumeconomics.com/a/c60…

🇲🇽 | As expected Banxico left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, with the statement clarifying that the Mexican and U.S. economies are different and Banxico will not mechanically follow the Fed. continuumeconomics.com/a/7bb…

🇫🇷 | France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. continuumeconomics.com/a/2d5…

🇺🇸 | We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing. continuumeconomics.com/a/ead…

🇺🇸 | We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. continuumeconomics.com/a/618…

🏚️ | Housing has reached the end of its classic 18yr cycle. Did Covid bring the peak, and part of the bust, forward? Or merely muddy a cycle that is still running into familiar inflation-rates pressure and financial cycle dangers on cue? continuumeconomics.com/a/bcf…

🌍 | The BRICS summit ended with a joint communique, and Trump 2.0 policies are stopping a unified counter from the West. The December G20 summit in Florida is likely to see the G20 papering over the cracks at a global level. continuumeconomics.com/a/9a9…

🇺🇸 | We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. continuumeconomics.com/a/e8c…

🌍 | Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for the rest of 2026, with a partial reopening most likely in Q1 2027 (60%) and no deal until well into 2027 in the alternative scenario (40%). continuumeconomics.com/a/55f…

🇺🇸 | We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. continuumeconomics.com/a/bc8…

🇨🇦 | We expect July GDP to be unchanged, a pause after three straight gains in Q2 continuumeconomics.com/a/cfc…

🇬🇧 | Headline inflation increased to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. continuumeconomics.com/a/a86…

🇺🇸 | August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. continuumeconomics.com/a/e8b…

🇯🇵 | BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace. The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. continuumeconomics.com/a/241…