CIO & Founder @MNFund_ and @MNCapital_vc | Host of @new_era_finance | Macro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading | Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast

Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Joined May 2010
My last five guests told you the dollar is dying. Brent Johnson manages money on the opposite thesis, and he came on to defend it. "I think a lot of people who want to have a quick end to this whole nonsense are gonna be disappointed. I think this is gonna go on much longer than people think, but that doesn't mean there won't be pockets of great volatility along the way." Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund) is CEO of Santiago Capital and the man behind the Dollar Milkshake Theory. His line that reframes the whole collapse debate: "Imminent is not the same thing as inevitable." He agrees it ends badly. He's watched people trade the ending for eight years and lose. "Things don't end just because they should." We cover: - Why higher rates are, in his words, "actually stimulative", until you hit the wall - The 2022 proof: the US froze Russia's reserves, the ultimate reason to flee the dollar, and the dollar index ran from 98 to 114 - Want vs need: "I totally understand people might not want the dollar. The fact is, like it or not, they still need it" - Stablecoins as a stealth dollar expansion, 99% of all stablecoins are dollar stablecoins - Why he calls this the most challenging period in his 26 years of managing money - And the surprise at the end: what he actually owns in #crypto rails Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:00 - Markets And Interest Rates 06:29 - The Global Economy 10:14 - Capital Flows 13:53 - The K-Shaped Economy 19:23 - Centrally Planned Economies 24:36 - Value Investing 34:02 - Long-Term Investing 40:49 - AI And Investing 42:40 - Stablecoins And Finance 54:23 - Risks And Opportunities Every debasement guest on this channel says the dollar loses. He says it drains everyone else first. Someone's wrong.
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Herzlich gutenmorgen from Amsterdam!
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I've been worried about my #Altcoin portfolio as it went down 75%. Quite a spot I genuinely didn't want to get into. However, right now, I'm more bullish than ever on the markets, as the product-market fit finally starts to hit for #Crypto. Nobody sees it yet, that's why most of those assets haven't seen a large surge yet (because if people would, we'd be trading higher). Happily largely allocated in the markets.
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The #Altcoin market capitalization is just having a relatively normal correction after its first push upwards. We could still see a 3-6% correction, but the structure clearly starts to become bullish from here. It won't take long before we'll start to see the next impulse.
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In September I said the downside looked priced and the upside didn’t. @Concordium is still accumulating with the token price. One of the key strategies that I’ve been using over the years is to find asymmetry between the token price and fundamental growth, as one day, the gap will be closing in. And the latest numbers are interesting. Agent transactions on Concordium have grown from 15,663 in July to 614,472 in October. That’s a 39x increase in just three months. Every one of those transactions is recorded on Concordium. Registry entries generate on-chain activity, while x402 facilitators pay network fees in CCD on behalf of agents. Most AI tokens have a narrative. concordium:native has a live product, growing usage and an expanding ecosystem behind it. I genuinely believe that concordium:native has one of the strongest narratives in current markets and a phenomenal product-market fit.
The intersection between #Crypto and AI isn't the future anymore. It's here. It's becoming incredibly more important. The biggest question isn’t whether we’ll be using AI, but whether we can verify who actually stands behind an AI agent when it starts transacting. @Concordium has been building this layer for six years already, and I know that from back in the days as I've been close to the team. The usecase is there. Trust and identity are the core layers of using transactions on the blockchain and through $CCD you'll be able to prove who's behind a wallet or an AI agent without losing your privacy. The institutional infrastructure is there and I'm very pleased to see how Concordium will evolve over the years to come.
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I'm proudly nominated by @binance as one of their top 100 Content Creators in #Crypto. I'm really thankful for the nomination. I'd be super happy if you could help me out and vote for me on the following page. Let's get it: app.binance.com/uni-qr/cact2…
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That’s a great breakout of the markets for #Bitcoin as we’re above $83,000. Very likely the correction is over and we’re back in the up modus for the entire market.
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Emotions almost always have a negative impact execution on the trading of #Bitcoin and your assets. That's why we'll be focusing on data on the markets. #Bitcoin has made a bear market bottom with a strong breakout after a weekly bullish divergence. The same can be seen on many #Altcoins. The bull cycle has just started.
This week, the sentiment on social media was expecting to see a Black Monday crash. To be honest, there are always emotional reasons of why a crash or rally must happen in #Bitcoin. This doesn't resonate with the data. The data copy/pastes the previous bear market bottom in 2022. A strong bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe indicating that the markets won't be correcting any further, after which a strong push upwards has taken place. This push was strong enough to be taking out the last high, so now, there's confirmation of a bullish trend. Therefore, as previous bear markets have ended this way, it's pretty much comparable and therefore, if price remains above this $76-80K area, there's consensus that we're at the start of a new bull market.
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The largest opportunities are created when there's a big mismatch between fundamental growth and the current token price. That's what I call a divergence and that's when you can value invest into an asset. $SUI is one of those assets. The current sentiment surrounding $SUI isn't the sentiment that it will be in a year from now. I spoke about this at $SUI basecamp a few weeks ago as one of the most essential ways on how you could invest into these markets. The prime example: the growth of tokenization. Tokenization started to accelerate at the end of 2025 already, but yet, underlying tokens haven't really picked up momentum at all. Still, today, the fair value of those tokens are significantly higher than the current value. When it comes to $SUI, there's clearly a mismatch between what the team is building and the current sentiment. The TAM of their product is infinite. Why? AI Agents and the Agentic Economy doesn't have a max cap. Everyone can build an infinite amount of agents to process payments and to do work for them. It's all about the infrastructure that's building the payment rails for them in order to be making sure that those agents can do their part. That's why confidential payments, free transactions on scalable payment rails are so important. One thing made me clear from the event in Singapore is that this is what $SUI is building for and almost everyone has no clue of what's here to come. A strong vision and, I think, a strong road to go for. That's why it has also become one of my anchors in my #Altcoin portfolio.
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“It’s most likely going to play out very similar to the dot-com boom.” Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund) on AI. A lot of these companies will go bankrupt, but a handful will be the dominant companies five, ten, 15 years from now. This chart shows how concentrated this market already is. A boom like Brent mentioned doesn’t kill all of the technology, it decides which will survive.
BREAKING: The 15 largest S&P 500 stocks now account for a record 46.7% of the index’s market value. By comparison, during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, the 15 largest stocks accounted for 27.2% of the S&P 500. The remaining 485 stocks represent just 53.3% of the S&P 500’s market cap. This comes as Nvidia, $NVDA, Apple, $AAPL, Alphabet, $GOOGL, and Microsoft, $MSFT, account for 7.5%, 7.1%, 5.9%, and 5.6%, respectively, or 26.1% combined. This means just 4 stocks account for more than the next 11 combined. Furthermore, the combined market cap of the 5 largest stocks now equals that of the bottom 434 stocks in the index, the largest gap on record. Market concentration is at historic extremes.
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Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
“I think this is going to go on much longer than people think.” Brent Johnson on government debt. In 2022 Europe, the UK and Japan all had problems with their government bonds, but governments got through it. Brent thinks they can keep postponing the problem even longer. Watch our full episode with Brent (@SantiagoAuFund) on your go to platform.
🇺🇸 Not too long ago everyone thought inflation was done. Same thing people thought in 1976 before it ran all the way to 14.8%. Now CPI back at 3.7% and creeping higher...
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I fully agree with this. Money isn't the actual currency anymore, but in order to prevent yourself from literally being inflated away, you must invest into hard and scarce assets. That's why #Bitcoin is the key towards freedom.
JUST IN: Elon Musk says money will become "irrelevant" in the future, with energy and resources becoming the new measures of wealth.
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Essentially, $TAO hasn't been losing any value at all against #Bitcoin over the last nearly two years. That's a tremendously strong signal and that's why I'm surprised that nobody is talking a lot about this one. Happily holding this asset as one of my largest positions within my #Altcoin portfolio as I assume that we'll start to see a lot of momentum once it breaks the range.
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It's funny. First, they'll hate the asset. And then, they'll start to embrace it. And then, they'll start to promote it as the best asset. That's what JPMorgan is doing and that's why we're going to so much higher than everybody expects on #Bitcoin.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin will outperform US stocks, gold, and real estate over the next 10 years.
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I'm positively surprised by the strength of $NEAR. It's consolidating nicely, and it continues to print higher lows. As long as the range low at $4.30 isn't lost, I'd be expecting to see a new leg upwards. Even though other 'hot' assets have been seeing a relatively large correction, this one hasn't seen one. Very bullish for a new breakout up.
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I'm looking at #Bitcoin in the same way as I've been looking at it for the past week. Just purely consolidating and not making any moves at all. I would like to see a clear break beneath $80K or a clear breakout above $83K. If either of the two happen, we'll start to see a strong market move. Until then; time to remain patient.
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Good morning everyone, Final day in Indonesia, time to go back to Europe (unfortunately). Markets are still doing fine, and are actually quite boring, I must say.
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Michaël van de Poppe retweeted
"Imminent is not the same thing as inevitable." @SantiagoAuFund's Brent Johnson, Dollar Milkshake Theory, on the most expensive mistake in macro: "We all know that this ends badly. We just don't know when... Things don't end just because they should." His proof is 2022. The US froze $300-400 billion of Russian reserves, if ever there was a signal that dollar reserves aren't safe, that was it. The textbook says everyone flees the dollar. Instead: "the dollar index went from like 98 to 114 in six months." Because energy, food and debt all settle in dollars, "even if you hate the dollar, you still need it." And the newest chapter is the quietest: stablecoins. 99% of them are dollar stablecoins, not forced on anyone, demanded. His words: "a surreptitious, stealthy way for the US to invade, for lack of a better way of saying it, on a non-military basis, the rest of the world." Translation: the collapse thesis and the dollar thesis aren't actually opposites. Both camps agree it ends badly. The entire disagreement, and the entire trade, is sequencing: the dollar drains the world before it drowns. Betting on the ending while skipping the middle is how shorts die in a system that can still kick the can. The last guests here called the dollar's funeral. He's asking who pays for it first. Which bet survives being early?
My last five guests told you the dollar is dying. Brent Johnson manages money on the opposite thesis, and he came on to defend it. "I think a lot of people who want to have a quick end to this whole nonsense are gonna be disappointed. I think this is gonna go on much longer than people think, but that doesn't mean there won't be pockets of great volatility along the way." Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund) is CEO of Santiago Capital and the man behind the Dollar Milkshake Theory. His line that reframes the whole collapse debate: "Imminent is not the same thing as inevitable." He agrees it ends badly. He's watched people trade the ending for eight years and lose. "Things don't end just because they should." We cover: - Why higher rates are, in his words, "actually stimulative", until you hit the wall - The 2022 proof: the US froze Russia's reserves, the ultimate reason to flee the dollar, and the dollar index ran from 98 to 114 - Want vs need: "I totally understand people might not want the dollar. The fact is, like it or not, they still need it" - Stablecoins as a stealth dollar expansion, 99% of all stablecoins are dollar stablecoins - Why he calls this the most challenging period in his 26 years of managing money - And the surprise at the end: what he actually owns in #crypto rails Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:00 - Markets And Interest Rates 06:29 - The Global Economy 10:14 - Capital Flows 13:53 - The K-Shaped Economy 19:23 - Centrally Planned Economies 24:36 - Value Investing 34:02 - Long-Term Investing 40:49 - AI And Investing 42:40 - Stablecoins And Finance 54:23 - Risks And Opportunities Every debasement guest on this channel says the dollar loses. He says it drains everyone else first. Someone's wrong.
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It's so phenomenal to see how institutions have changed their stance towards #Bitcoin. I remember the video where J.P. Morgan was laughing at Bitcoin. Now they recommend investors to hold an allocation into the asset. Bullish.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.
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That's why you buy the dip on #Bitcoin and you hold. The best part is still to come.
The accumulation zone is over and the distribution zone is next. Same chart, every cycle ⚠️
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