Cryptoeconomist @official_trakx | Former Global Macro PM/Macroeconomist | Crypto class of 2013
Planet Earth
Joined September 2022
- Tweets1.2K
- Following41
- Followers874
- Likes613
Pinned Tweet
My long-term thesis for how #crypto plays out. (Trigger warning: Government regulation will feature).
⚠trakx.io/roadmap-to-utopia/⚠
(Or How Crypto-anarchists Will Learn To Love Regulation)
📷 #Bitcoin📷 #ETH #stablecoins #cryptocurrency
King Canute famously ordered the tide to turn back, not because he believed he could command the sea, but to demonstrate to his courtiers that even a king could not defy forces beyond his control.
Not sure this applies to Bernie Sanders though!
Ryan Shea retweeted
August is typically one of the worst months of the year for digital assets. Not this August. To find out why check out our latest @official_trakx blogpost below:
trakx.io/resources/insights/…
August is typically one of the worst months of the year for digital assets. Not this August. To find out why check out our latest @official_trakx blogpost below:
trakx.io/resources/insights/…
"After June’s sharp sell-off, digital assets bounced back last month as macroeconomic "blips" and improving regulation offset geopolitical uncertainty, while the debate over Bitcoin's BIP-110 underscored..."
Click below 👇to continue reading the latest @official_trakx research note
trakx.io/resources/insights/…
Bitcoin up more than 2% in GBP terms since Andy Burnham becomes the 7th British PM in a decade.
Many will dismiss this as just spurious correlation but IYKYK 🤣
This cat is in the know!
xitter.cf/Number10cat/status/207…
In case you missed it - my latest @official_trakx blog post examines recent crypto price trends in the context of the four-year cycle. Check it out 👇
trakx.io/resources/insights/…
So Starmer resigns as Leader of the British Labour Party and the revolving door of Number 10 Downing Street spins yet again.
So, to get the deal over the line, the US lets Iran charge fees for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz after a 60 day moratorium.
Precedent set? Malacca strait next?
Whatever, it means a new source of demand for crypto and more national state holdings.
Ryan Shea retweeted
May tested digital-asset markets once again.
Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, renewed inflation pressure, a cautious Fed transition and short-term risk-off sentiment all contributed to a more volatile backdrop for crypto.
But as Ryan Shea highlights in our latest monthly update, the longer-term case for digital assets may be strengthening beneath the surface.
From Bitcoin’s role as a politically neutral settlement asset to renewed regulatory momentum in the US and growing sovereign interest in digital reserves, crypto is increasingly moving beyond speculation and into the strategic infrastructure conversation.
So, should investors “sell in May and go away”? The answer is not that simple.
Read Ryan Shea’s full May 2026 crypto market update here: trakx.io/resources/insights/…
ALT May 2026 in Crypto - Sell In May And Go Away - Trakx monthly - Ryan Shea
If confirmed (and who knows given how these negotiations are being conducted in the media) this is a big issue for reasons I outlined in the latest @official_trakx crypto monthly update that dropped today 👇
trakx.io/resources/insights/…
Imagine Country X:
• Running massive primary deficits
• Public debt already at peacetime record highs
• Debt servicing costs surging as inflation rises for structural not cyclical reasons (think: Strait of Hormuz closure)
Now ask yourself:
How does Country X stop bond vigilantes from triggering a sovereign debt death spiral?
The textbook answer would be spending cuts or higher taxes.
But politically, spending cuts are impossible.
And tax rates are already near the top of the Laffer Curve.
So what’s left?
Yield Curve Control.
Cap bond yields. Print if necessary. Suppress volatility.
Use financial repression if required:
• capital controls
• regulatory pressure
• moral suasion
But there’s a catch.
The central bank balance sheet becomes endogenous and there are no enough degrees of policy freedom to maintain low inflation.
In fact, higher inflation becomes part of the solution because it erodes the real value of the debt.
That’s why this back-up in global bond yields matters, and why it’s structurally bullish for scarce, finite-supply assets. You know the ones!!!!
PS: Country X is not one country. It’s most of the developed world.
🌎 Global Bond Yields at Multiyear Highs on Mounting Inflation Risk - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Ever met a campaigning politician who didn't say what you want to hear?
Trust me "the plan" will not include public spending cuts but will be based on higher tax rates. Unfortunately though, with the UK at the peak of the Laffer curve (as the IMF recently acknowledged) the Labour government will quickly find out that overall tax revenues won't go up. In fact, they could very well drop.
Inevitably, the only way to bring the debt down (in nominal GDP terms) is... 🥁🥁🥁 higher inflation aided by the BoE firing up the printing press.
I think we can put quantum compute risks on the back burner for now.
The Google Threat Intelligence Group has detected the first known instance of a threat actor using an AI-developed zero-day exploit in the wild. While the attackers planned a wide-scale strike, our proactive counter-discovery may have prevented that from happening. This finding is part of our new report on AI-powered threats.
Three government ministers have resigned today in the UK and still Starmer refuses to step down as PM.
Talk about an inability to read the room (or the mood of the country after last week's dreadful local election results).
That strikes me as a very brave assumption, especially the time frame.
Remember, hope is not a good investment strategy.
JP Morgan on oil prices/Strait of Hormuz:
"A core assumption of our framework is that the accelerating pace of oil inventory depletion will ultimately force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one way or another. Our base case envisions the Strait reopens in June—anchored on June 1 for simplicity—following a clear and credible announcement ratified and confirmed by both sides, such as a statement from the UN Security Council."