Heavenly Father, this Tuesday morning I come to you with the words of your son still ringing true: "I have told you these things, so that in me you may have peace. In this world you will have trouble. But take heart! I have overcome the world." Jesus never promised me a life without trouble. He promised me himself in the middle of it. And this has been trouble, Lord. It has been a long road, longer than I expected, with more waiting rooms and more waiting than I thought I could carry. I'm not out of the woods yet, and some mornings my mind runs ahead of me into every "what if" it can find. Today is one of those days. The MRI is in front of me and the results are approaching and I confess my thoughts want to camp out in the space between, imagining the worst. Forgive me for the times I've let fear speak louder than your faithfulness. You have never once left me alone on this road. Not in the tremendous pain, not in the long nights, not in the quiet moments when I didn't have words to pray. So I ask you plainly: be with me today. Go before me into that conversation with the doctor. Let the report be good, Lord, and I ask that with my whole heart. But whatever I hear, let me hear it with you beside me. Quiet my anxious mind the way you always have. Give me that peace that doesn't make sense on paper, the kind that only comes from being in you. Help me take heart, not because I know how this ends, but because I know who has already overcome. The world's trouble doesn't get the final word. You do. I place this day, this report, and this body in your hands. I trust you with all of it. In Jesus' name, Amen. #dailyprayer✝️
🌽 #Corn harvest jumped 16 pts to 60% but trails the 66% five-year average; condition 56% good/excellent, unchanged.
🌱 #Soybeans 79% harvested (64% a week ago, 77% avg)
🌾 Winter #Wheat 76% planted (77% avg), 53% emerged;
☁️ #Cotton 52% harvested (45% avg), sorghum 56% (69% avg).
🔹 Topsoil short/very short rose to 38% from 34%; c
🔸 Corn laggards Michigan 28%, Ohio and Pennsylvania 35%.
US PRODUCERS TO NOTE. #cmdtyView
Chart: Brazilian Soybean Production v USD/BRL
A lot of overnight impact on the US Ag markets following the Brazilian elections. We're fielding numerous calls from our South American & US producer clients. Here's the best why I can break it down.
What it means for Brazilian producers: 🇧🇷
Near term it is a windfall in reais; longer term it raises the cost of the next crop and the risk around Brazil's finances.
🔹 Local price up even as Chicago falls. Brazil's farm price is roughly (CBOT + port premium) x the exchange rate. At constant dollar prices, is roughly +9.4% in reais; Conab's national average was R$139.24 per 60-kg bag in the Oct 5-9 week, after the strong-real swing cut it 2%; a similar move in reverse would put it near R$149.
🔹 Expect heavier selling. With roughly 61% of the new crop and about 32.5 MMT of old crop still unpriced, farmers who held out while the real was strong now have a reason to sell and lock forward. More Brazilian offers usually means weaker Paranaguá premiums, which gives back part of the currency gain.
🔹 Inputs get dearer. Fertilizer, chemicals and much farm debt are priced in dollars. The 2026/27 crop is mostly bought, so the cost hit lands on 2027/28 input purchases and barter deals.
🔹 Area response is slow. Planting is past 30%, so this crop is set. The currency matters for 2027/28 area decisions next winter, and only if it holds.
🔹 Fiscal risk cuts both ways. If the selloff reflects deficit fears, higher Brazilian interest rates raise financing costs for farmers who are already leveraged.
What it means for US producers: 🇺🇸
A weaker real is bearish for US soybeans: it lowers the dollar price at which Brazil is willing to sell, and Brazil is the price-setter for world exports.
🔸 The window is now, not spring. US exports run heavy September through January; Brazil's harvest takes over from February. US commitments are strong (963 mil. bu, +430 mil. y/y), so old business is not the issue. The risk is new sales for Feb-Jun shipment, where Brazilian beans price is cheaper.
🔸China tilts further to Brazil. Brazil supplied nearly 80% of China's imports in the first nine months of 2026. Analysts expect Lula's pragmatic China ties to hold that share. The US pledge buying is state-led and largely booked; commercial crushers buy the cheaper origin.
🔸CBOT gets a currency premium. A record 4.56 bil. bu US crop, record US and Brazil supply, and now a weaker real all point the same way. Rallies are more likely to be sold while USD/BRL stays above about 5.30.
🔸 Marketing approach. Producers with unpriced 2026 bushels should treat CBOT bounces toward the pre-election level as sales opportunities rather than waiting on spring weather. For 2027, the El Niño setup (dry north Brazil, wet south) is the main upside risk
🤝 Paid partnership
Record-low placements point to tighter fed cattle supplies into spring, while new New Mexico cases and the first wildlife case keep border risk high. Pork stocks are 9% above a year ago as the pork cutout softens.
Brazil equity ETF (EWZ) plunged 26%, recording its largest-ever decline. #Brazil
Mato Grosso soy is 75.8% planted (Imea), up 24 pts in a week and 15.8 pts ahead of last year’s 60.1%. Conab has Brazil at 30.1% through Oct 16, vs 21.4% a year ago and a 26.4% avg. Médio-Norte is nearly done at 96.6%. The fast early start in MT points to an early safrinha corn window and early-harvest Brazilian soy competing for export demand in Q1. #MatoGrosso 🇧🇷 #soybeans 🌱
Oct 26th Trading Notes: 📝
🌽 #Corn holds MAX SHORT on a +123K net (-18K on the day, the biggest cut on the board, -23K since the Oct 20 COT), 61% of range, bearish bias with 452'4 under P458 and below S1, S 454/451, R 460/465
🌱 #Soybeans hold NEUTRAL on a +215K net (+7K, the biggest gain on the board, +8K since COT), 89% of range, bearish bias with 1239'6 under P1258 and below both supports, S 1251/1245, R 1263/1270
🌱 #Soymeal holds SMALL SHORT on a +199K net (-4K, -6K since COT), 97% of range and EXTREME, while #soyoil holds MODERATE SHORT on a +73K net (+2K), 66% of range; #oilshare climbs to 49.4% from 48.9%, stays above both the 9 and 20 day EMAs and the 9 day crosses above the 20 day, as board #crush slides to $2.39 from $2.45 and stays under both EMAs
🌾 #Wheat eases to LARGE SHORT from MAX SHORT on a -68K net (+2K, -17K since COT), 39% of range, bearish bias with 625'0 under P627, S 622/619, R 630/635
🌽 Crowding: #meal 97%, #beans 89%, #cotton 76%, #soyoil 66%, #corn 61%, #KCWheat 50% holding MAX SHORT on a -4K net (-1K) of historical range
🐂 Divergence: #cattle hold MODERATE LONG on a +55K net (0K), 38% of range, #feeders climb to MAX LONG from MODERATE LONG on a +11K net (+1K), 45% of range, both bullish bias with cattle 231.125 over P230.750 and feeders 348.125 over P347.600; #hogs ease to LARGE SHORT from MAX SHORT on a -52K net (+1K), 0% of range and still past the -44K weekly record; four labels flip vs Oct 23 and no bias changes
☁️ #Cotton slides to LARGE SHORT from SMALL SHORT, -3K on the day (4th of 10 on the board), 76% of range
📆 #Today: #ChicagoFed Activity 7:30am CT, #DallasFed Manufacturing 9:30am CT, #ExportInspections 10:00am CT, #CropProgress 3:00pm CT; #crude 101.147 (-2.123), $DXY 101.870 (+0.06), #gold 4012.02 (+18.06)
☀️ #Weather: ECMWF ensemble 7-day precip thru Nov 1 Oklahoma 0.58-1.39in, Nebraska 0.69-1.37in, Iowa 0.66-1.37in, Kansas 0.60-1.08in, Illinois 0.28-0.69in, Missouri 0.36-0.59in; the heaviest 1.3-1.7in band shifts north into southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, and the eastern Corn Belt picks up 0.2-0.4in after a dry week
🌎 #Brazil: ECMWF ensemble 7-day thru Nov 1 puts 100-150mm across Goias and Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso 40-100mm, while Parana, Paraguay and interior Rio Grande do Sul turn drier
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Heavenly Father, good morning. Before this week starts moving, I want to stop and thank you for the weekend. You gave me rest, real rest, and I didn't earn it. My body slowed down, my mind got quiet, and I got to be with the people I love. That was your kindness, and I don't want to rush past it into Monday like it didn't matter. Jesus, you said, "Until now you have asked nothing in my name. Ask, and you will receive, that your joy may be full." So I asked. I asked for this week to be a good one, and I asked because you told me to. Not because I think I can talk you into anything, but because you invited me to come to you with what I need.
You know my habit. I ask, and then I walk out the door and try to carry it all myself. I check the markets like the outcome depends on how closely I watch. I replay client conversations before they happen. Forgive me for asking you for something and then acting like I'm still the one holding it. Tomorrow is the CT scan. You already know what it will show. Give me peace walking in, steady the hands of the people running it, and let me rest in you while I wait for results. Whatever the answer is, I want to receive it with you. Bless my clients this week. Give me wisdom to serve them well and say the right thing at the right time. Open the business doors you want opened, and close the ones that would pull me away from you. Give me a clear head in the markets, not fear and not greed. And cover my family. Keep them safe, keep us close, and let them see you in how I treat them this week. You promised that asking leads to joy. So I'm choosing to trust you with what I asked for and to look for that joy as the week unfolds, even in the parts I didn't plan. In Jesus' name, Amen. #dailyprayer✝️
🌱 🔻 hard.
LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA WON BRAZIL’S PRESIDENTIAL RUNOFF WITH 51% OF THE VOTE AGAINST FLÁVIO BOLSONARO’S 49%, SECURING AN UNPRECEDENTED FOURTH TERM AND DEFEATING THE POLITICAL MOVEMENT BUILT BY FORMER PRESIDENT JAIR BOLSONARO. LULA’S COMEBACK WAS SUPPORTED BY VOTERS IN HIS NORTHEASTERN STRONGHOLD, HALTING A RIGHTWARD POLITICAL SHIFT IN LATIN AMERICA.
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Week Ending October 20, 2026
🌽 Managed money sold corn for a fifth straight week. Funds cut their net long by 84,619 contracts to +146,257, the smallest since July 21. Gross longs fell 45,787 to 275,543 and gross shorts rose 38,832 to 129,286. Since the September 1 record net long of +431,062, funds have now taken 284,805 contracts off their corn position.
🌱 Soybeans also saw a second straight week of selling. The managed money net long fell 30,555 contracts to +206,936, as funds cut 27,216 longs and added 3,339 shorts. That puts the position 59,095 contracts below the September 8 record of +266,031. It still ranks in the 95th percentile of all weeks since 2006.
🌾 Chicago wheat was sold for a seventh straight week. Funds added 18,096 contracts to their net short, which now stands at −51,134, the largest since July 7. Most of the move came from new selling: gross shorts rose 16,274 to 135,130, while longs slipped 1,822 to 83,996. On September 1, funds held a small net long of +14,654.
🌾 KC wheat saw a sixth straight week of selling. The managed money net long fell 10,996 contracts to +6,395, the smallest since June 23. Funds cut 6,166 longs and added 4,830 shorts. Over the last four weeks, 35,348 contracts have come off the KC net long.
🔸 Taken together, funds were net sellers in all four markets last week. Chicago wheat is the only one of the four where they hold a net short.
Heavenly Father, here I am at the front edge of another week, and my mind is already running ahead of me. You know the list before I say it, the concerns I keep picking back up, the thoughts that follow me to bed and are waiting for me when I wake. I don't need to explain them to you. You see all of it, and you see me carrying it. Before I ask you for anything, I need to come clean. I've sinned against you, in what I've done, what I've said, and in the things I should have done and didn't. I've let worry act like it was in charge. I've leaned on my own effort as if everything depended on me. I confess it, and I turn from it. Forgive me, Lord. Wash me clean again. I'm not worthy of anything I have. And yet you've poured out abundance on me, far more than I could earn. Your word reminds me why: "You did not choose me, but I chose you and appointed you so that you might go and bear fruit, fruit that will last and so that whatever you ask in my name the Father will give you." I didn't find you. You came looking for me. That changes how I walk into this week. I'm not here by accident, and I'm not working to prove I belong. You chose me, and you've given me work to do that will last longer than any of the things that keep me up at night. So I ask in your name: quiet my mind. Take the thoughts that drag at me and lift them off. Where there's a decision to make, give me clarity. Where there's something I can't fix, give me peace to leave it with you. Let the fruit of this week be real, patience, faithfulness, kindness to the people in front of me. And watch over the ones I love. Cover them where I can't reach. Guard their health, their hearts, and their steps. Keep them close to you. I trust you with this week, Lord, all of it. In Jesus' name, Amen. #dailyprayer✝️






















