QQQ is going to zero and we actually deserve it
Replying to @RandianCapital
maybe venture people know accounting and know it is irrelevant much of the time
You guys are confused why we’ve entered Nasdaqistan?
Replying to @shaunmmaguire
Shaun, isn’t this still a bit conservative? 😅
Elon just said on the Q3 call they’ll exit 2027 at $500B–$1T ARR and hit at least 13 GW of terrestrial compute by the end of next year (with $1T full-year revenue in 2028 on the table)…
You have them at 10.2 GW in Q4’27 and capped at $40B/GW when SI contracts are already renewing above $50/W. Plug in 13 GW at $45B–$50B/GW and Q4’27 ARR is already ~$600B+, with FY28 right around $1T……
Bro is offline whilst his biggest long presented dogshit numbers and refused to give any forward guidance. Actually kind of based.
You need both labs to grow strongly for semiconductor revenue estimates to hold - this is a terrible bull case.
If we’ve actually flipped into an environment where incremental OAI revenue comes at the expense of ANT then the trade is over.
A good chunk of the market seems to want to read Anthropic's lower than expected ARR as a sign that demand slowed because Anthropic's models are falling behind.
So where did that demand go? Open source? No. It went to OpenAI. Didn't everyone already watch people cancel Claude en masse and move to Codex when Astra came out?
Expectations were just too high. Total demand didn't change. You have to look at the combined ARR of OAI and Ant, not at either company on its own.
Wasn't this trade never really about how much money OpenAI or Ant makes? Wasn't it about how much these two companies spend, and sizing who benefits from that spending?
Anthropic "topped" 65bn ARR at end of July per Reuters. 16.8bn 3Q revenue per the FT implies a crazy sharp Aug/Sep decel to flat m/m growth.
It's over.
Pretty big assumption that frontier lab executives think like reasonable people with regards to managing market expectations. OpenAI never even corrected the market's belief on 70bn ARR.
Hard to imagine Anthropic’s investor day tomorrow will be disappointing because if it was then they probably wouldn’t have it - announcing bad Q3 financials or ARR guidance could do some major damage to the entire complex, and boy do they know it
Unless they think they can pad a soft ARR guide with selling the future of stuff like curing cancer to try and support $2T, but I don’t think that would cut it. Show us the money
Sequential decel in revenue = goodbye
New Anthropic IPO reporting with the🐐@LesliePicker:
Anthropic to disclose new revenue numbers as AI lab financials become central to tech trade 💸
Anthropic plans to disclose its Q3 financials for the first time at a meeting with potential investors on Wednesday as the AI giant giant prepares for what could be the largest initial public offering in history @CNBC cnbc.com/2026/10/13/anthropi…
Now that I mostly talk to dots, going back to chat / agent interfaces feels oddly inorganic.
Talking to dots feels natural, like talking to a person.
Watching Codex call tools and stream intermediate outputs kinda breaks the illusion for me.
Pretty crazy how quickly that feeling developed and how fine, excited even, I was with the previous way until we built this new way.
Got shouted at by my CFO today for procrastinating on my expense reports since June. Muse literally just one-shotted everything. This thing rocks.
In America, insider trading is only illegal if you are poor
BREAKING: White House teleprompter operator ordered to pay $172K for placing prediction market bets on Trump’s speeches. nbcnews.com/politics/white-h…
Every time I crash out and want to quit SF I end up matching with some fine Asian baddie what the hell is this sorcery




















