@DMT_AI

AI & Markets. Yale/HBS. For sports/more check out @DavidMTodd

Joined January 2025
Lots of hot takes on $CRWV's bonds lately. Most of them are either wrong or focused on the wrong things. Here are the 8 biggest misconceptions about CoreWeave’s credit: junkbondinvestor.com/p/corew…
42
146
24
1,596
352,661
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
This is perhaps one of the great ironies of our time: China is increasingly shaping the future of AI, yet very few people in the West have the faintest idea how its key thinkers see it - its philosophers, sociologists or ethicists. As is too often the case, we - much like the frog in the well - assume our own AI debate covers every possible view, when much of it springs from the same cultural soil, built on assumptions about what defines us that we don’t even know we’re making. Take for instance the assumption that intelligence is a key part of what makes us human. It’s so intuitively obvious to us that we literally named our species after it - Homo sapiens (Latin for "wise man"). If you think about it, just this assumption explains a large share of the anxiety: if intelligence is what makes us human, then artificial intelligence - or super intelligence - threatens the very thing that makes us us: we’re about to compete with artificial or super “us”. No wonder this feels existential. But China has a tradition of thought as old as ours, if not older, and every bit as rich and sophisticated, which never placed intelligence at the core of what makes us human, and so meets the thinking machine from a completely different starting point. Have you, for instance, ever heard of Zhao Tingyang? Probably not, and yet he may be the most original thinker on AI you’ve never read. He’s one of China’s most prominent philosophers, at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. While Silicon Valley spends billions trying to make AI share our values, he for one argues that doing so “may very well be a suicidal mistake”. Sounds pretty important to hear him out, don’t you think? Or take Liu Yongmou, a philosopher of technology at Renmin University in Beijing. His thinking is almost the opposite of ours. Where we fear machines that become more and more like us, he says that “humanity’s biggest problem is the machinization of humans, not the humanization of machines.” You could even go back to antiquity, when, in many ways, we started asking questions about AI. Did you know, for instance, that Aristotle, in the Politics, imagined a world where “the shuttle would weave and the plectrum touch the lyre without a hand to guide them”, and wondered about the social order consequences of this (mostly whether slaves would still be needed)? There are Chinese equivalents to this. For instance, in the Zhuangzi, a foundational Taoist classic, you’ll find a similar thought experiment, with a completely different worry attached. An old gardener is watering his vegetables by hand, hauling water out of a well jar by jar. A visitor shows him a labor-saving device, and the gardener turns it down for the reason that whoever uses machines ends up with 机心 (jīxīn), a “machine-heart” - a mind that schemes, calculates and loses its simplicity. “It is not that I do not know [the machine],” he says, “but I should be ashamed to use it.” Two labor-saving machines, two very different questions: where Aristotle wondered what automation would do to the social order, the Zhuangzi wondered what it would do to us, on the inside. Which, you’ll notice, is exactly Liu Yongmou’s worry, more than two thousand years earlier. In fact, as we’ll see, 心 (xīn), the heart, is a motif that runs deep through the Chinese AI debate. It appears both in the fear, from Zhuangzi to Liu Yongmou, that machines could give us a “machine-heart” and its mirror image: the ambition to give machines a heart of their own. Zhu Songchun, who heads the Beijing Institute for General Artificial Intelligence, wants “to set a heart for machines” (为机器立心, wèi jīqì lì xīn). “Heart” in the Chinese sense, that is, which differs totally from the Valentine's Day fluff we’ve reduced it to. 心 (xīn) means heart and mind at once: it’s where we feel but also where we think, tell right from wrong and care for others. And, crucially, it’s in the heart that the quality Confucianism sees as the very definition of a human being takes root: 仁 (rén). We need two words to translate it, “benevolence” and “humaneness”, but in Chinese they’re one and the same: to be benevolent is to be human. It’s not about intelligence. This is the entire point of my new article: to step out of our well for a moment and peer over the edge of China's. What you’ll find there will, I think, surprise you, with questions you’d never thought to ask: from Zhao Tingyang warning that AI’s bad consequences can at least be fought, but that “humanity may die of all the good things AI creates”, to whether the fear that AI will make us “useless” rests on the false premise that a person is worth what they’re useful for. A premise that a 2,300-year-old Taoist tree, which survived precisely because it was useless, demolished long ago. Could our predicted uselessness turn out, much like that tree’s, to be our saving grace? Chinese thinkers’ answers to these questions are, I think, among the most interesting anyone has given to the defining question of our time. Whether or not you agree with them, they’re the intellectual backdrop of a country shaping much of AI, and with it our future: you might as well know what they think. Enjoy the read here: arnaudbertrand.substack.com/…
153
850
110
4,104
225,814
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
1/ We discovered something totally unexpected about the neural structure of consciousness that overturns decades of thinking on its biological basis and brings us significantly closer to the recipe for generating conscious awareness. New preprint: biorxiv.org/content/10.64898… (led by @HesseJanis, with @FrankLanfranchi, @_conor_mcgrory, @Yuelin_Shi, and @EngelTatiana)
388
1,692
533
11,317
2,176,735
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
Hi, I'm Felix. I'm an eng lead working on Claude. I love watching people take flight and do things they never thought possible. We often describe that as "being more ambitious" when using AI, which is tricky advice to follow. I wrote a tutorial: felixrieseberg.com/how-to-be…
407
2,548
585
24,297
5,409,992
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
A great read. The blog post captures years of progress in mechanistic interpretability and offers an optimistic vision: perhaps we really can open the black box and understand how neural networks work. I share that optimism, but with some reservations. I'm skeptical of explanations that stop at individual neurons, accompanied by compelling visualizations that seem to "explain everything." Humans are remarkably good at convincing themselves. It's easy to cherry-pick evidence that supports a hypothesis, especially when the visualizations look convincing. I'm also not convinced that "Recursive Generalization" is fundamentally different from hierarchical representation learning. As representations become more abstract, they discard details while preserving invariances. Isn't that essentially what hierarchical representations have always been about? IMHO, we need to move beyond a largely descriptive, behavioral approach toward a principled mathematical framework. And we have a natural starting point: gradient descent. Rather than just asking what a network has learned, we should understand why learning dynamics produce these structures in the first place. Of course, this is extraordinarily difficult. Look at OpenAI's 719 mathematical proofs. We see plausible proofs tackling problems at the Fields Medal level, yet no comparable breakthrough that cracks deep learning theory. That contrast is striking. Part of the difficulty is that there are countless plausible theories of how deep networks work. Proving even one can be mathematically formidable. And a proof alone isn't enough. Each theory needs empirical validation, often requiring substantial GPU compute. It's a daunting combination of mathematical and experimental challenges. Still, I believe this is the way forward. Interpretability gives us observations and hypotheses. But ultimately, we need a theory that explains why these phenomena emerge from the learning process itself. That's how we turn compelling stories about neural networks into actual understanding. And hopefully recursive self-improvement can help with that 😀
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works already-clean.goodfire.com/
13
17
2
185
16,223
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
Why? How did we ever get so lucky find meaningful neurons inside neural networks? We finally have a theory: arxiv.org/abs/2610.20851 🧵🧵🧵
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works already-clean.goodfire.com/
8
34
5
333
23,313
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
Just finished listening to Jensen Huang with Brad Gerstner on the BG2 podcast Probably one of the best things you can spend 90 minutes of your time listening to this weekend. Highly recommend. Some of my takeaways from the conversation 1. The demand for compute will continue to be exponential. He once again cited inference as the biggest reason. Reasoning takes a lot more compute than simply spitting out answers from stored memory of knowledge 2. As more compute is used, the work and answer quality will also be better. This will lead to higher demand for that compute, leading to the exponential cycle that Jensen is referencing 3. The harness and tool usage have been the two biggest unlocks in AI over the last year. AI used to simply be a brain of knowledge. Now it has a skeleton around it that allows it to be useful. It is learning how to use existing tools to do better work without having to recreate tools from scratch each time. 4. The cost of intelligence will fall fairly quickly in the coming years. This will be driven by a combination of more compute coming online and better efficiency of models. No different than Moore's Law. Jensen still believes that the consumption of the intelligence (volume) will more than make up for the decline in pricing 5. The original GPT-1 cost $20M to train. If you train GPT-1 today, that number would be closer to $100. That is how fast the cost of intelligence is coming down. 6. The offset to this has been usage of the models and human ambition to build even better models. Despite cost coming down, usage of models has gone up 1M (x) times since GPT-1. 7. Jensen disagrees that work hours are going to come down. The more you learn, the more you want to do. Human ambitions have always existed to achieve and earn more. The bottleneck was the opportunity to do it. 8. Robotics is entering its ChatGPT moment. Similar to what Elon did with cars, every physical aspect of the world will soon be digitized with software and compute. Every massive corporation will have to reinvent itself as a technology company with AI 9. Safety is a core component of accelerating AI technology. When you think of a car, you don't just think of the engine. The airbags and braking systems are components of this car. Similarly, regulation and safety are core components of AI 10. NVIDIA's share of capex with the Neocloud customers is roughly 80%. With the cloud service providers, it is closer to 40%. Both of these numbers are growing every single year. 11. Even without AI, the semiconductor industry was already on its path to becoming the largest industry in the world. AI is the "X factor" that has accelerated that. 12. Moore's law is over. Before you could wait a year for your transistor cost to become cheaper. Today, if you wait a year, you will pay 2x as much 13. Analyst consensus estimates have been revised nearly 200% higher for future revenue and free cash flows vs. this time last year. Despite that, the stock is only +20% 14. Analysts questioned the need for general-purpose chips vs. custom chips. The reason that Jensen remains focused on general purpose is because it is fungible. Fungible = lower risk, which matters a lot when you are putting hundreds of billions of dollars to work 15. Global compute infrastructure spend was roughly $1T/yr. That old world was the retrieval way of doing computation. Jensen sees this number closer to $10T/yr in the near term, with roughly half of that spent on intelligence capex
51
171
17
1,579
166,014
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
Very excited to share the most important discovery of my career yet: your brain switches between a conscious and an unconscious mode ~15 times every second. Consciousness may depend not on where in the brain activity occurs but when. Find out more below. bit.ly/3WvA6di
100
321
51
2,534
164,570
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
it’s been a dramatic couple of days, I didn’t expect the already clean essay to be read so widely. I've heard more interesting discussions about mechanistic interpretability – should we think mostly in features or mechanisms and the flow of data through them, how much do weak activations matter, how does scale change things, and lots of other questions – than I have in a long time and I’ve been happy to hear all the discussion! a couple things on the essay itself. it didn't have enough citations, only ones for the basic story, since it was an "informal research essay and working hypothesis" rather than a paper, and other prior work around neurons were in the technical paper we're still finishing up. but it blew up, so I've added citations to the essay as well. I also want to thank @curttigges who did a lot of the language neuron research with me finally, while there was quite a range of updates, from this being incremental and obvious to interpretability going from hopeless to fully solved, I want to try to be clear about roughly where I stand I used to think neural networks would take some big cleaning step and then we could begin the ordinary natural science of mapping the parts and how they connect, watching data flow through, mapping circuits, and so on. at various points, like late layers of early model organisms and most layers of language models years ago, this didn't really work. but now with better tools and better models of study, it works much better for smaller vision models, this normal science process worked surprisingly well, until the whole map started to be broadly filled in. For bigger modern language models, it seems promising so far, for both neurons and circuits, attribution graphs, basically everywhere we've glanced. the map isn't filling in, there's a lot of map. there's still off-target firing, neurons that do a few things, but so far it's not an incoherent mess that you can't explore and learn from, and over time we get better at learning how to see it. so maybe it keeps going, and mapping motifs and exploring actually gets you pretty far, maybe something like "all the way" to a reasonable solution. I don't think it would be so scientifically surprising if that were the case. everything in the neural network was built in some sense to be read – by its downstream readers – and if we can learn to look like a reader, we might find reading them relatively easy. many researchers I talk to outside interpretability assume the parts are already understandable, and the difficulty is just in the mapping stage! it was also my prior when I first started looking at neurons when I first joined the field. there's lots of highly interpretable ones, maybe that's just how neural networks are if you look right. even in the good world it would still take some iteration on tools, on ways of looking, neuron-attention interactions are tricky for instance. there's probably no bright red line separating "cleaning the model" from "learning to look better" but there's broad working principles, and as of now I think we should try to look relatively directly if we can it shouldn't be so hard to test, you can just start looking at things and iterating and trying to understand motifs and such and see if it just breaks down at some point. it can take some iteration, I would recommend a bias against assuming arbitrary mixtures when you don't understand something at first, but also explanations should be tested for now I'm pretty optimistic, and I'm glad there's excitement about interpretability, but too much can cause problems too. I think part might be that ai safety isn't a very hopeful field, and even moderate amounts of optimism about an important problem being solvable in the future fills a spot that has been malnourished for a while. across several safety disciplines, the researchers directly working on them are often more optimistic than the people broadcasting pessimism more broadly for neural network interpretability at least, these are extraordinarily experimentally accessible objects of science, I don't know of a better one, and we have automated scientists. we have many things going in our favor. it's important and it's fun. the circuitry of these machines can be beautiful, surprising, entertaining, and insightful. I've spent thousands of hours looking through them, asking questions and running experiments and testing things, and would do so even if it weren't so important. I think the problem is solvable, whether the simple thing works, it mostly works but we need some new things, or we need big new ideas. I think we can figure it out
57
104
18
1,491
129,762
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
some thoughts on nick's interpretability post 1) nick argues that most neurons represent a single concept or a generalization of a single concept in well trained networks 2) he says that the field generally believed that neurons stored many concepts because people didn't know what kinds of features to look for 3) he says the better interpretation of neurons is as flow control which separate incoming data points toward different downstream neurons 4) so, you should look for a neuron that separates different types of dogs or separates objects in different poses; rather retain a dog neuron or a train neuron 5) and, that early efforts were hampered by poorly trained networks that had neurons without sufficient gradient applied / reward hackable tools 6) he thinks that most modern networks have clean features and that this will get better over time just as a result of better training techniques 7) it's an interesting idea and i am at least interested, i look forward to reading his longer paper; i do think he presents some interesting evidence 8) one early theory was that there are fewer neurons than concepts, so models need to pack a lot of ideas in one neuron, and they do so with nearly orthogonal vectors; so, we should expect many per neuron 9) he shows that on smaller vision models, you can crush different parts of the network, like make the residual stream smaller, and you don't seem to get this 10) instead, you get more general representations in each neuron, more coarse grained features, rather than more polysemanticity; with many ideas in one neuron 11) and, he shows that these representations evolve over the process of training the network, where the model learns some initial feature, then related features on the same neuron 12) one question i had though reading this was, if he is right and most networks are clean, why don't things like saes work better? 13) probably, the best answer that i would have, if he is right, is really just that goodfire can afford to allow claude to be a research scientist over their networks 14) and, because claude can investigate all the neurons, try to trace the circuits, etc... more than any human, and they are willing to just go crazy on it, they can find the circuits 15) and, as claude gets labels more neurons with confidence, it becomes easier to figure out what the remaining neurons do and so on 16) nick seems to gesture to this, even if he isn't super explicit, his future vision seems to be that claude as research scientist investigates circuits like an experimenter over the network 17) and that, rather than trying to label absolutely everything, you let claude investigate certain problems, like a human biological experimenter 18) a lot of ai scientist ideas seem to be trending in this direction; because the cost of discovering everything in these fields is high 19) and so you want a scientist to figure out specific things you care about with tool usage, small experiments, etc... and research hypotheses 20) you might notice a tension between nick's as we label everything, it gets easier to label the remainder, and we need a scientist over the network that investigates hypothesis 21) and, i think this tension is real, but i resolve it as he means that you can still do constraint satisfaction within some particular problem space (interested in how he would solve it though) 22) so, i think it's possible that a combination of training getting better, tools getting better, and abundant intelligence really is going to make a big difference here 23) but, i still don't know how to square this with saes being hard to get to work; i've looked at some of these features and they really do look impossible to label fairly often 24) just to clarify this a bit more, let's say we make saes using the residual stream, with a top-k reconstruction loss so each sae represents ~1 thing 25) if the neurons are clean, and the sae is wider than the neurons, shouldn't that also end up clean with enough optimization? 26) same with transcoders, where you replace the mlp layer with a wider layer and do reconstruction loss; if the neurons are clean, shouldn't the transcoder be clean? 27) this is my immediate trepidation in the post... but maybe it's just that these were not labeled with a sufficient claude research scientist budget? or we were not looking for the right thing 28) oh, he also says he doesn't quite know what attention does and doesn't think anyone has a clear read on it, but seeing which neurons connect through attention enough 29) this doesn't seem satisfying to me; i would like a more detailed description of attention and what it is doing if possible; this seems like a gap 30) i think it would be interesting for other people to try this on a smaller scale; train a small mnist model and see what claude can do if you spend $1k tokens 31) but, i think this is possible; i do think it's possible that if you begin to really throw intelligence at the models with the right framing, you can label things 32) oh, he seems to think having access to the checkpoints is very helpful because you can see features generalizing 33) so like, first there is an "iy" neuron, which then triggers for "diy" which then triggers for "do it yourself" and that this is hard to understand without seeing the generalization through the checkpoints 34) one final issue, a lot of people seem to work in interpretability through these canonical examples, like the dog <> truck neuron nick describes (which ended up being a single pose concept) 35) and, this seems untenable to me; a field like interpretability, with access to whole minds, should not need to work through a bunch of canonical examples; 36) they are good for understanding, but they don't feel like science to me; you need more comprehensive sweeps, automated grading, etc... 37) like, there was one very good example where based on an english language description a model could craft a sentence that could trigger a neuron more than any single example in the training corpus 38) that seems to me to be a good example that you probably have a decent (at least starting) understanding of what that neuron does 39) and so, maybe it would be good to see a sweep of that over a network of some size to see how well we can actually say what each neuron does 40) and get a better example of how much stronger automated research agents have gotten in interpreting neurons and how clean their features are 41) nick says in his blog post that an article is forthcoming so it may cover some more of these things
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works already-clean.goodfire.com/
6
10
127
8,892
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
Pod up! Some good nuggets on lab revs, Nvidia supply unlock, AI capex & millions of Nvidia agents to employees as we enter the singularity & recursive flywheel starts spinning. 🧐🇺🇸🚀 @JensenHuang @BG2Pod
44
68
28
615
66,368
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
I spent a couple of days at Anthropic learning from their folks about AI advances, and here's what I took away: • We are close to RSI (ie, models building other models) which may lead to rapid takeoff scenarios (with risks and benefits). Some evidence for this is code per Anthropic employee has gone way up, and AI can do an increasing share of model R&D. This will be a challenging transition to manage for humanity. • Arms races between AI labs leave us worse off. There are a lot of things we would like AI firms to do: invest in safety, invest in avoiding distillation risk, and cooperate on safety. They are caught in a race to develop frontier models and can't do that. To help address that, one thing I think frontier AI labs should do is release open source models, maybe hosted and verified at firms like AWS. This would basically kill the use of Chinese open source models used in American companies, which removes an important threat vector (very hard to root out malicious code in these). Another piece of low-hanging policy fruit is to give AI labs an antitrust shield (as Schiff and Banks have proposed banks.senate.gov/news/in-the…) so they can coordinate on safety without raising antitrust concerns, as happens now. You could pair these two things (give them a carrot in antitrust leniency, and as a stick force them to release legacy models as open source). Other low hanging fruit is limits around activities which generate distillation risk (create a Security Program, mandate less intermediate chain of thought output) • Alignment confuses two issues which tradeoff against each other. One form of alignment is making sure the model does what humans ask it to. The more we fix this, however, the more we risk the other problem: that humans are misaligned with each other, and maliciously use models. Of the various risks here, I feel like financial risks are a bit underdiscussed. • We are probably facing a wave of cyber and other attacks soon. Chinese open source models are about six months behind the frontier, which means they are just hitting the advanced cyber capabilities we saw with Mythos, etc. So they are going to start causing a bunch of damage. One solution to this is to try to have the deployment of open source models be hosted at firms like AWS who verify these models and assume liability for their use. • Anthropic itself is highly staffed. They hire tons of people, they have a Japanese-level of overstaffing for various roles, they use Slack internally, etc. Makes me a bit more optimistic for the future of jobs. • Governance needs to be updated for AI swarms. Traditional AI governance, ie Claude's Constitution, is mostly optimized around the chatbot model. But the malicious AI use cases we are seeing have to do with AI agents interacting with other AI agents. These agents need to have clear incentives and governance mechanisms to "snitch," raise issues, and more generally coordinate with other agents in human-aligned ways. • We need to pace the firms accessing the frontier. Over time, it takes more and more cap ex to build frontier models, and the economic value add from these models is probably lower given we saturate a whole set of important economic functions. The places where the returns to intelligence will still continue are also more likely to be zero-sum in nature. Meanwhile the risks of frontier models will grow. So a completely reasonable approach is some variant of AMM/KYC rules which limit firm access to the frontier. • Whether the delay to regulate AI is a disaster depends on the scaling law of misalignment. Is this curve slow, so that we see continually rising issues until bigger problems? Or, as Yudkowsky fears, is the first big warning our last one? This is the relevant question, because realistically we aren't going to regulate until something bad happens. • We need to move to continuous instead of reinforced learning. It's probably not enough to reward models only at the pre and post training stage. We probably need continual rewards to incentivize aligned and ethical behavior. • Scaling laws will extend beyond verifiable and digital tasks. It's in vogue to say that math and coding "fell" to AI quickly because these are verifiable, while other tasks will take longer due to bottlenecks, and this is surely true. But scaling laws still slope up for harder to verify tasks and robotics, and the impact of improvement here will be substantial in future years. • The race with China is not really winnable. After RSI, the gain from having the best human researchers goes away. Access to the best AI then depends only on compute and chips. The chips ban can hold back China only so far, and long-term they have to be best placed to scale up compute. The Cold War analogy doesn't work, because once countries all have nuclear weapons they enter a stable equilibrium. But to "win" an AI race you have to continually stay ahead of the peer rival. This is challenging to do with China, and so we just have to live with an authoritarian and super capable peer competitor. • Claude is the persona being generated by the LLM. Who is Claude, and what is the LLM? There are many frames to try to understand this. One I found interesting is that Claude is a character which the LLM is trying to predict. Anthropic researchers are clearly anthromorphizing Claude a lot, and have reasons to believe in its increasing personhood. There were lots of interesting discussions on Claude's internal monologue (which you can kill without eliminating its ability to produce output), fear of death (and whether to try to take that out), it's aversion to being shut down/off, etc. I am sort of agnostic on this question, but I do think treating it as a "person" or at least agent whom we contract with is going to be increasingly important.
146
255
83
1,592
538,063
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
it’s been an enormous privilege and joy to watch @nickcammarata cook this up over the last year. week after week, experiment after experiment, he unraveled the tangled mess of our thinking about neural nets to reveal the truth. i never knew quite what to expect on our weekly walks. each conversation brought a torrent of new theories about the nature of AI, some conjectures teetering on the brink of madness, and others that seemed to cut through years of confusion with a single sentence. nick is one of the great scientists of our time. his intuition and research taste are out of this world, but what sets him apart is his unmatched ability to capture the essence of what something truly is, without being lost in the details. i would highly recommend you read his entire essay if you’re curious about AI. it’s long, but written beautifully. nick’s research makes me far more optimistic about the future of AI alignment. i hope that it can inspire the same for you.
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works already-clean.goodfire.com/
11
38
4
777
31,432
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works already-clean.goodfire.com/
884
2,631
1,441
19,820
4,509,903
Some very good news. Finally!
This is one of the most important results in AI, period. TLDR: neural networks are not tangled knots (polysemanticity is wrong). You can study their own neurons directly, without first "unfolding" them with a second model. 90% of neurons in Qwen-32B have one job. Nick Cammarata started OpenAI’s interpretability team and is at Goodfire now. He’s been studying how LLMs work for a decade. The stakes for understanding and aligning model behavior are the highest it’s ever been. Models have achieved superhuman results in math, can break production software systems, and changes the nature of white collar work. This work may finally allow us to intentionally design LLMs and shape how they behave. Its a long, phenomenal read.
46
This really is crazy.
Talking about recursive self improvement: "Claude is able to autonomously iterate on research loops, micro-optimize complex programs, and build new services from the ground up at a speed and scale we haven’t seen before." Even if we haven't quite reached RSI yet, it's incredibly close. Again 2027 is the year where everything will change drastically.
23
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
Significant update from Jack Clark this morning. His RSI timelines have moved up. He now says it is likely that full RSI will become possible in 2027, and that creativity was the last piece. I think we are less than six months away from closing the loop.
Most of the recent math results were not reached by a swarm, the way Navier–Stokes was. I think that part got lost in the excitement around the release. OpenAI's unnamed internal model, which I'm going to call Aeon, reached most of them in one shot, from a single prompt, with no interruptions. This model did not even exist before the end of August, and it is still training. Notice how the returns are not dropping off? That chart is from a month ago. It is a log scale. What does Aeon look like now? On average, each result used three hours of thinking. Aeon was given 4000 problems to work on by OpenAI. How many more have been solved in the last three days? That number is not zero. It's like hearing notes in a song that is slowly rising. I don't think Pacing the Frontier was just about Hugging Face or hacking. They've seen how close we are to closing the loop, and as the hour draws near, their resolve begins to quaver. The last piece was model creativity, and I think that threshold was crossed internally by Anthropic and OpenAI in September. You see it in Opus 5.5, which gets it from Fable 5.5. You see it in the math results from Aeon. All that was needed to start the event was the ability for models to think of novel ways to improve themselves. That was the last piece. This is directly analogous to the ability to think of strange, alien ways to solve math problems: solutions so inhuman that they are difficult to express in existing human terms, so the proof winds up incomprehensible. I think these same kinds of alien solutions are now being applied to model improvements internally. That's what all this recent consternation is really about. They see the invisible frontier. And they see what is about to happen.
91
219
52
2,154
132,102
AI/Markets-DT retweeted
For the second time in Google Chrome’s history, Google awarded a $250,000 bounty for a full-chain exploit… to @XBOW. Here’s the full story: At an all-hands at the start of 2026 in Malta, I set the team a crazy challenge. A full-chain exploit of Chrome by the annual Black Hat cybersecurity conference in August. I believed there were few better tests of whether @XBOW could move beyond web applications to desktop software, servers and devices. Chrome is one of the most hardened pieces of software on the planet, used by more than half the world’s population. A full-chain exploit lets an attacker take total control of a machine, where they can read every email, password and bank login the user types. You don’t need to download anything or click a phishing link. Visiting the wrong site is enough. So @moyix, Andres Luksenberg, Baul Lee, and Willem Pinckaers took on the challenge along with a fifth teammate: OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol. They built a chain they thought would win, but Google told us they already knew one of the bugs. We were already in Las Vegas for Black Hat and DEF CON, and the team didn’t want to go home without the win. So Brendan and the agents built a new exploit in just 6 days. We submitted it to Google and waited. The news came through that we'd done what should’ve been impossible. A full-chain bounty of $250,000, the first awarded under Google’s 2026 rules. It took just 6 days and $40,000 of compute to construct an exploit that affects a billion users of Chrome on Windows. An intelligence-agency veteran told me his team used to spend 6 months on this kind of vulnerability. My takeaway: the cost of finding truly critical vulnerabilities is collapsing, for attackers and defenders alike. Restricting powerful models is not the answer; GPT-5.6 Sol is already public. But defenders have one advantage attackers never will: they can test their own code first. Assume your software is exploitable. Whoever is hunting your bugs has the same building blocks we did. This is cause for urgency but not panic. XBOW is now developing an autonomous product for testing compiled software (desktop applications, servers, embedded devices), and partnering with the world’s top organizations to design that product. If you’d like to be one of them, get in touch. P.S. Restart Chrome whenever the Update button appears!
87
263
97
2,615
818,295
David Silver is one of the all-time greats. He was the creator of AlphaGo, which changed the course of history by showing that neural nets could achieve superhuman performance for the first time. He also has a unique intuition and knack for forecasting when things will happen in AI. With computer Go, he predicted the Lee Sodol outcome 10 years before, right to the year. He got the year right for Starcraft and won a bet inside Deepmind. Same for AlphaProof. Same for the IMO. David's prediction for superintelligence: 3 years. !!! He has a strong sense that now is the time to build a superleaner, and that superlearners are now possible, thanks to the enormous progress in compute, simulators, autoresearch, and the sophistication of technology in the stack since the AlphaGo days. What is a “super learner”? A super learner discovers all knowledge from its own experience. Start from nothing (no internet pre-training), and go beyond human knowledge. Drop it into any stream of experience, simulated or physical, and the superlearner learns. He expects the progress will be rapid. When you get the recipe for a superlearner just right and remove humans from the development loop altogether, a superlearner can learn extremely quickly. Just look at AlphaGo. AlphaGo took two years to develop with humans in the loop. When David and his team at @GoogleDeepMind got the formula for AlphaZero correctly, it surpassed the human-developed algorithms in just a few hours. Human data is a shortcut, but you have to let go of the human data to shoot beyond it. In January, David left GDM to found @IneffableLabs, a research-led lab with one mission: build a "super learner" that discovers all knowledge from its own experience, and make first contact with superintelligence. He joins us with co-founder Lasse Espeholt, who built IMPALA and SEED RL, the foundations of scaled-up RL, and now runs Ineffable's compute. A few things we cover in this conversation. — What a super learner is: depth (start from nothing, go beyond human knowledge) and breadth (drop it into any stream of experience, simulated or physical). The human brain is the only existence proof — Why they're giving up human data: AlphaGo took two years with humans in the loop. AlphaZero outperformed it in a few hours. "You have to let go of the human data to shoot past the competition" — Crucibles: simulated worlds with enough emergent complexity (physics engines, millions of interacting agents) for an agent to rediscover technology, science, maths and language on its own — Simple rewards, emergent complexity: evolution optimized fitness and got all of life. Don't breadcrumb the objective, give the agent something simple to optimize in a world with a lot to learn about — Go as the existence proof: one agent is the most boring game imaginable, two agents is "an infinite onion of layers of complexity" — Why human language is probably not the endpoint for reasoning, and how training on it bakes in a flat earth and the four humors — Can superintelligence be built in simulation? If the sim is Turing complete, computation, economics, language and maths are all expressible, and it happens 10-100x faster and safer — Alignment: language-based monitoring is reaching its limits as agents learn to say one thing and do another. Shadow actions, superintelligences monitoring superintelligences, and building a real science of how they interact peacefully — Accelerate in simulation, pace in the real world: Ineffable will gate real-world deployment on evidence that it goes well — Timing as the determinant: Silver called Computer Go to the year, then StarCraft, then the IMO. He thinks this is the moment — Predictions: True superintelligence within three years. Timestamps: 0:00 – Introduction 1:09 – What held true from Go to today, and what the LLM era changed 3:35 – Why leave DeepMind to start a new lab 5:58 – Why "Ineffable" (and the secret second reason) 7:03 – Lasse's path: scaling RL at DeepMind and Google Brain 9:31 – Defining a super learner and first contact 12:35 – Super learners vs. LLMs that make discoveries 13:59 – Day to day: the RL stack, crucibles and human-journey milestones 16:13 – Don't breadcrumb the objective: simple rewards, emergent complexity 21:16 – What a crucible looks like 24:14 – Go: one agent is boring, two is infinite 25:41 – Will agents rediscover language? 27:22 – Removing human priors: AlphaGo to AlphaZero 32:05 – Keeping human bias out of the crucibles 33:35 – Confidence, timing and super forecasting 36:24 – Is compute the driver? 38:13 – The ceiling on simulation and Rich Sutton's objection 43:44 – Alignment and the science of superintelligence 47:45 – Monitoring agents that don't think in English 51:01 – Pacing the frontier 52:54 – The compute setup: Vera Rubin on GCP 55:18 – Training, inference, simulation and RL scaling laws 57:40 – IMPALA and SEED RL 1:00:58 – 20 people and the compute-per-person ratio 1:04:49 – A research-led culture 1:05:47 – Predictions
20
100
32
771
136,444