25+ yrs in markets. Macro, deep value, niche commodities. Early on overlooked plays. Charts + context → conviction. Trading: https://xitter.cf/t.co/sYZPBI22ri
Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Joined September 2013
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For paid Substack subscribers, you’ll know I have a section called the Commodity Bucket, featuring additional names that sit just outside my Core 15.
These are currently my top five smaller-cap #energy names.
Pick #1 still looks like a no-brainer to me:
• 39.2% OCF yield
• 11.4% FCF yield
• 5.5x EV/FCF
I’m adding more again today.
The full Top 5, including all names and the complete comparison table, has just been shared in the Niche Commodity Bucket List thread.
Still some crazy value hiding in the energy market, in my view...
Getting quite a few questions again around my take on $COP.
The long-term chart remains massively bullish in my view.
The key level is the $150 and change zone on the monthly. If we get a confirmed breakout above that area, the larger channel structure opens the door to $400+ over time.
That sounds extreme until you zoom out...
$OIL / $SILVER
Below is my post from February, two days before the #iran war started..
As always: structure precedes the news...
I started scaling long oil before the breakout and subsequently rotated virtually all of my precious-metals exposure into energy-related vehicles in the weeks leading up to this move.
That rotation has already paid off substantially.
Now zoom out...
On the 3M chart, the $OIL / $SILVER ratio is finally turning from a major long-term extreme.
More importantly, the ratio is starting to break out of the shorter-term decline while the much larger orange structure leaves considerable room above.
If that long-term breakout eventually confirms, the ratio could theoretically travel all the way toward the ~12 area.
That would represent enormous relative outperformance of oil versus silver...
This is what rotation is about.
Don’t marry an asset. Don’t put “silver” in front of your X account name either... 😉
Follow where the asymmetry moves next.
$CL $USO
Tomorrow #oil could do a reverse $SILVER (think: last month..); a monthly breakout for the first time since 2008. I want $WTI to close above ~66.50.
Closed my short-term puts today and started scaling long in the crème de la crème just below $XOM $COP, $OXY; energy names that provide torque.
Did an oil special a few weeks back to prep you for this move...
deepvaluesignals.substack.co…
🥉 #3 Rising on Substack in the Netherlands!
Welcome to all new DVS subscribers.
Free insights every week, plus deep dives like our 4-part Microcap Special.
This week's Energy Ratio Special: 10 charts, 7 free.
Enjoy the research? Support it for roughly a coffee a week.. ☕🫖
#HELIUM plays... 👀
#Helium just got a major vote of confidence...🎈
The US has officially designated helium as a critical material, citing its importance to semiconductors and growing supply-chain risks.
Guess @juniorminingpro and I saw something over a year ago that many are only beginning to recognize now.
We've been positioned. The market is catching up. And I believe this story is just getting started.
$PLSR.v and the broader helium sector remain firmly on my radar.
Thanks to subscriber Biggieshmallz for sharing the article!
apnews.com/article/energy-cr…
SILVER | As warned this morning...
GSR breaking higher again. Silver taking another dump..
Meanwhile, my feed is flooded with “the bottom is in” calls..
That's rarely how durable lows form.
No confirmation. No bottom call.
March: Silver below $120 was “a gift”...
October: Metals are in a multi-year bear market..
Anyone still taking Gary’s forecasts seriously has only themselves to blame...
Bubbles tend to originate coming out of a major multi year cycle low. Metals had a chance to transition into a true bubble phase but gold needed to recover quickly after the Jan. crash. The Feb. rally needed to recover the all-time highs and then breakout. That didn't happen.
I was willing to give it one more chance. The April rally needed to recover the all time highs. We rode that rally in miners and recovered most or all the losses from our leverage. But it topped way too soon and we exited close to the top. We have been on the sidelines ever since.
At this point I think we missed the chance for a final bubble phase. That means we will have to wait for the next multi year cycle low before metals produce the next setup to produce a final bubble. That 8 year cycle low isn't due until 29-30.
There's been too much technical damage done to metals at this point. It's going to take months or years to base before it can produce the next momentum phase. You should ignore the gold touts telling you that metals are about to rocket launch. Metals are in a cyclical bear market. Not a secular bear market mind you, but a cyclical one that may last several more years. Once the cyclical bear market is finished then we will see $10,000 gold and $300-$500 silver. But investors will need to be patient and let this cyclical bear run its course.
It's time to look for other opportunities.
Another #Energy Beauty. Hidden in Plain Sight.
Just shared another energy stock in the Substack Chat, arguably one of the cleaner names from a fundamental perspective.
The chart is equally interesting. A massive multi-year cup-and-handle formation, with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension pointing toward a potential 2.5x from current levels.
Interestingly, silver reached a similar extension following a comparable technical structure.
Of course, confirmation matters. Ideally, we get a convincing breakout followed by a successful backtest.
The ticker? Already shared in the General Chat for paid subscribers.
For €250/year, this is precisely the kind of research and opportunity identification I aim to deliver. And there's plenty more where this came from.
OBE.TO | Obsidian Energy: A potentially massive breakout in the making?
Just published DVS Market Update 43, featuring ten ratio charts highlighting energy's emerging relative strength, alongside two new high-quality #Energy picks.
deepvaluesignals.substack.co…
One larger name I've covered here and on Discord is Obsidian Energy.
Now approaching a C$1 billion market cap, so hardly a microcap anymore, but the torque could still be considerable.
What catches my attention is the breakout from its multi-year declining structure, followed by consolidation just above former resistance. The larger inverse head-and-shoulders structure is also worth watching.
If this breakout holds, the upside could be substantial. Confirmation still matters.
I'll continue digging for the best risk/reward opportunities across oil and gas, particularly the overlooked names where the market has yet to recognize the full potential.
Paid subscribers can already find the two new Energy additions in the Commodity Bucket. Full deep dives coming next week...
A year later, @RockBtmEntries is still doubling down on his “highest conviction” $MLP.v
Meanwhile, our core conviction #energy pick continues to print higher highs versus MLP.V, with roughly 6x+ relative outperformance from the levels highlighted.
A lesson in hubris...
And no, the answer wasn’t $GRO either. I rotated out of GRO a while ago at much higher levels. Even if you were still holding GRO today, the rotation would leave you roughly 70–80% better off on a relative basis.
I follow what’s working, not what I want to work.
To be fair, I warned repeatedly about MLP.V around $3.00–$3.30.
I’m still bullish on MLP.V long term. Recent Banio newsflow has actually been constructive, with BA-006 extending cumulative potash mineralisation to roughly 120m ahead of the updated resource and DFS...
But MLP.V is currently #3 of three in my Potash / Fertiliser / Phosphate sleeve. I see considerably better value in the two names above it, with one sitting in my Core 15.
Chart first. Narrative second. Always.
Interested? Full Core 15 + Commodity Bucket for roughly the price of a coffee a week ➡️ deepvaluesignals.substack.co…
Weekend $USOIL isn't buying the Iran headlines..
BREAKING: Donald Trump is now considering striking Iran as soon as tomorrow, telling reporters after casting his ballot in Florida, “We’re thinking about doing it, and maybe tomorrow.”
The remarks mark a sharp reversal from his October 8 statement that the U.S. would not attack before the November 3 midterms. It comes as the USS George Washington has been actively rearming in the Arabian Sea with bunker-buster bombs and standoff missiles, with the carrier's captain saying his crew is ready to respond "reactively or preemptively."
Let me help you with that mate...
Among those who publicly promoted or partnered with Kinesis: @freedom_rpt @NorthstarCharts @badcharts1 @TheLastDegree @AndrewMaguire
I looked into Kinesis years ago and decided to pass. A few things bothered me:
• 2019 SEC filing: $255M proposed KVT offering, with $60.35M reported sold.
• $45M in KVT allocations, including $27M earmarked for founders and management (not cash payouts). A HUGE red flag given the substantial insider incentives before the business model had proven itself...
• Highly ambitious projections dependent on substantial transaction volumes...
• Questions around audits, token economics and whether the system could deliver its promised yields.
None of this proves fraud. But these were legitimate due-diligence questions long before today's reported withdrawal problems....
And here's my point: if you've spent years promoting a financial platform, simply ending your affiliation doesn't make the earlier endorsements disappear...
If your views have changed, explain why. If they haven't, defend them.
That's accountability, not an accusation..
Spending my Saturday evening explaining the energy bull case to oil bears... 😅
Credit where it's due: @VictoriaViorela has been nothing but respectful throughout. This is absolutely not aimed at her...
Can't say the same for @StocksFormula One of the worst accounts I've come across on here. Apparently didn't like being challenged, so he blocked me a while back. Couldn't care less...
Anyway, the charts will ultimately settle the debate. 🛢️
$XLE / $USOIL: A potentially MASSIVE structural breakout already underway.
Look at the SIX-MONTH chart.
Two completed 6M candles have closed above a descending resistance line dating back well over a decade. We're now backtesting that former resistance as support.
Momentum is turning increasingly constructive.
If this backtest holds, energy equities could substantially outperform oil itself over the coming years.
Different instruments. Different performance. Benchmark selection matters...
#Helium just got a major vote of confidence...🎈
The US has officially designated helium as a critical material, citing its importance to semiconductors and growing supply-chain risks.
Guess @juniorminingpro and I saw something over a year ago that many are only beginning to recognize now.
We've been positioned. The market is catching up. And I believe this story is just getting started.
$PLSR.v and the broader helium sector remain firmly on my radar.
Thanks to subscriber Biggieshmallz for sharing the article!
apnews.com/article/energy-cr…
