@Data_Orbital

Led by @George_Khalaf, we're an analytics & survey firm crafting data-driven solutions for our clients. Top 10 pollster in America by @FiveThirtyEight.

 Phoenix, AZ
dataorbital.com
Joined August 2016
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521Media
MARICOPA COUNTY | October 27 update More than one in four registered voters has returned a ballot: 659,114 returns and 25.5% turnout. Republicans hold a 7,660-ballot advantage, or 1.2% of returns. The county’s early-voting picture. 🧵
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Maricopa’s early turnout by registered party: Republicans: 28.9% Democrats: 34.0% PND/Other: 16.0% Among voters who participated in all four previous general elections, 443,371 ballots have been returned—51.1% of those issued. Turnout and voting history together:
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ARIZONA BY COUNTY AND LD| October 27 update Pima has 183,772 returned ballots, with Democrats ahead by 38,401—a 20.9% ballot advantage. Turnout by registered party: 28.6% Republican, 37.8% Democratic and 18.1% PND/Other. Both measures for all 15 counties. 🧵
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LD17 has 63,139 returned ballots. Democrats lead by 1,611, a 2.6% ballot advantage. Turnout within each party’s registration: Republicans: 32.6% Democrats: 46.0% PND/Other: 24.3% Ballot advantages and turnout across all 30 legislative districts:
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ARIZONA EARLY VOTING | October 27 update Arizona has passed 1.1 million returned ballots. Republicans lead by 9,832 ballots, a 0.9% advantage. Turnout is 24.6%, compared with 24.4% at the comparable point in 2022. The statewide breakdown. 🧵
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Arizona’s early turnout by registered party: Republicans: 27.4% Democrats: 33.2% PND/Other: 15.5% Voters who participated in all four previous general elections have returned 735,067 ballots—65.8% of the total. Two charts on turnout and voting history.
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MARICOPA COUNTY | October 26 update 559,258 early ballots have been returned. Republicans lead by 3,967 ballots, a 0.7% advantage. Turnout is 21.6%, compared with 20.8% at the same days to go in 2022. The county’s early-voting picture. 🧵
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Maricopa’s early turnout by registered party: Republicans: 24.5% Democrats: 29.2% PND/Other: 13.4% Voters who participated in zero or one of the previous four general elections have returned 55,134 ballots—9.9% of the county total. Turnout and voting history together:
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ARIZONA EARLY VOTING | October 26 update 935,727 ballots returned. Republicans lead by just 438 ballots, less than 0.1% of returns. Overall turnout is 20.6%, versus 20.8% at the comparable point in 2022. The statewide breakdown. 🧵
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Arizona’s early turnout by registered party: Republicans: 22.8% Democrats: 28.3% PND/Other: 12.8% Voters who participated in three or four of the previous four general elections account for 766,450 returns—81.9% of the total. Two charts on turnout and voting history.
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ARIZONA BY COUNTY | October 23 update Gila’s party turnout is nearly even: 27.1% Republican and 27.8% Democratic. But Republicans lead returned ballots by 2,762, or 30.4%, reflecting their larger registration. Both measures for all 15 counties. 🧵
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LD2 has just 183 ballots separating Democratic and Republican returns. Turnout within each party’s registration: Republicans: 20.7% Democrats: 26.6% PND/Other: 11.3% These two tables pair ballot advantages with turnout across all 30 legislative districts.
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Data Orbital retweeted
Garret Lewis
@GarretLewisOct 23
Are Republicans returning more ballots compared to 2022, 2024 and compared to the Democrats? Is there a blue wave coming for Arizona? @Data_Orbital President @George_Khalaf, also running for State Rep LD-3 breaks down the numbers.
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ARIZONA EARLY VOTING | October 23 update 841,534 ballots returned. Democrats lead by 1,357 ballots—a 0.2% advantage, versus 3.0% at the comparable point in 2022. Overall turnout is 18.5%, compared with 18.7% in 2022. The statewide breakdown. 🧵
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Arizona’s early turnout by registered party: Republicans: 20.5% Democrats: 25.5% PND/Other: 11.5% Voters who participated in zero or one of the previous four general elections account for 88,184 returns—10.5% of the total. Two charts on turnout and voting history.
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TODAY’S SPOTLIGHT: CD2 | October 22 90,733 early ballots returned. Republicans lead by 8,902 ballots—a 9.8% advantage, versus 6.3% at the comparable point in 2022. 🧵 County reporting schedules vary; Apache and Navajo returns are through Oct. 16.
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CD2’s early turnout by registered party: Republicans: 16.7% Democrats: 17.9% PND/Other: 9.3% Voters who participated in all four prior general elections account for 60,379 returns—66.5% of the district’s total. Two charts on turnout and voting history.
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Maricopa’s PND/Other turnout is essentially level with its 2022 pace at 10.7%. Republican turnout is 19.6%, versus 18.1% in 2022. Democratic turnout is 24.1%, versus 21.2%. Among Maricopa voters with no participation in the previous four general elections, returns are spread closely across parties: Republicans: 5,916 Democrats: 6,795 PND/Other: 6,800
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MARICOPA COUNTY | October 22 update 452,819 early ballots returned. Democrats lead by 2,278 ballots—a 0.5% advantage, versus 1.6% at the same point in 2022. Overall turnout is 17.5%. Three charts on the county’s early-voting picture. 🧵
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ARIZONA BY COUNTY | October 22 update Republicans lead returned ballots in nine counties; Democrats lead in six. But county totals vary widely. Across all 15, Democrats hold a 6,136-ballot advantage, or 0.8%. Maricopa and Pima both show 24.1% turnout among registered Democrats. Republican turnout is 19.6% in Maricopa and 17.1% in Pima. PND/Other turnout is 10.7% and 10.8%, respectively. 🧵
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Some legislative districts have narrow gaps in returned ballots. Democrats lead by 249 ballots in LD2 and 442 in LD16. Republicans lead by 375 in LD13 and 604 in LD4. LD28 has 43,959 returned ballots. Participation within each party’s registration looks like this: Republicans: 26.0% Democrats: 39.7% PND/Other: 19.2%
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