General Partner @PropelVC | Backing the builders of the new economy | [email protected]
San Francisco, CA
Joined May 2009
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What’s the score of the @Brewers game?
New investment thesis: only back founders who name their companies as if they’ve already won the market.
True or false?
David Mort retweeted
NVIDIA's consensus revenue estimate for 2027 is roughly $700 billion. Vera Rubin runs ~$40B per GW. SpaceX is "exclusive to NVIDIA", per Elon.
So when Elon claims SpaceX is going to build 20GW of capacity next year, he's suggesting SpaceX will spend $800 billion on NVIDIA chips.. or greater than 100% of NVIDIA's total revenue, lol.
$SPCX $NVDA
🤯🤯🤯
Elon Musk: "It is absolutely insane to be deploying, providing the power and all of the electrical equipment, the cooling, the batteries, the networking, and everything else that's needed to turn on 220,000 GB300s a month.
But that is actually what we're doing right now."
SpaceX is "highly confident" of 13 GW of compute by end of 2027, and 23 GW is possible.
It also casts its own turbine blades to skip a 12 to 18 month wait.
$SPCX
David Mort retweeted
$CRWV - HSBC WARNS COREWEAVE IS SPENDING BILLIONS TO DESTROY VALUE
HSBC maintains its Reduce rating on CoreWeave, with a $39 price target implying 36% downside.
The bank estimates CoreWeave's 2026–2030 return on invested capital at 8.9%, below its borrowing costs.
With over $51 billion in debt and slowing AI revenue growth, HSBC warns further investment could destroy shareholder value.
As the tech world shifts to building software for agents, the best builders will go the other direction: building for humans who still want to experience something truly great.
AI makes efficiency abundant. Craft becomes scarce.
The artisan builders are going to matter more, not less. Or we all just unplug and spend more time with our families.
A must-listen for those wrestling with what’s ahead. Most interesting is the point on rates spiking bc capital demand for AI buildout, sending all stocks sharply lower…
Had a lot of fun chatting again with my twin brother @dylan522p
We went through lab economics over the next few years - the shift from inference to training as RSI draws near; and how Anthropic and OpenAI are on track to control most of the world’s usable FLOPs within the next few years (because they can monetize compute better and thus outbid everyone).
And then we discuss whether the >$10T of total AI capex we’ll see by the end of the decade will cause a sovereign debt crisis, where hyperscaler debt raises interest rates, drives non-AI exposed countries into bankruptcy, and crashes non-AI equities.
One question we weren’t able to resolve is whether there’s anything that can counter all the forces barrelling towards centralization in this industry - the economies of scale in training, the scarcity of compute, and eventually continual learning and RSI.
0:00:00 – Two labs will soon control most of the world’s compute
0:07:01 – $6 billion in fab capex enables $1t+ of end revenue
0:13:08 – Compute prices will rise if the labs outbid everyone
0:18:22 – Which layer will capture most of the surplus?
0:25:40 – Will datacenter regulation slow down AI?
0:29:43 – Labs are shifting compute from inference to R&D
0:33:27 – China gets less than 10% of new compute, but its labs need less
0:48:48 – Will AI cause a sovereign debt crisis?
1:07:52 – Will the world's future workforce belong to a few companies?
Need more viewpoints like this in the daily discourse on AI
going to spoil the ending:
- chinese or other open weight models end up handling 99% of all inference, maybe 99.99%
- frontier models are still able to monetize at $100 s of B in revenue a year, applied to bespoke and enormously complex tasks
- labs internalize most or all of that revenue either by becoming biotech (etc) companies themselves or via JVs with selected winners in each industry
- the "public frontier" ends up lagging the true frontier by a year or more as the labs keep all the good stuff to themselves
The @PropelVC office is featured in the second photo, so we must be doing something right @JayReinemann
Agreed
Anduril Co-Founder @traestephens thinks the US should implement mandatory civil service.
"It's not a super contrarian idea, actually. There are a bunch of countries across the world that have some version of mandatory civil service."
"In fact, we have aspects of this inside of our own society."
"Things like jury duty or being subpoenaed for court or there are instances throughout the last 50 years where people were called into service to do things like road construction and maintenance..."
"I think there's something really important about ensuring a sense of civil duty into our next generation."
"I don't think that needs to be in a military service. It could just as easily be like going and working as a clerk in a county courthouse. There's all sorts of things that we can do to pull people in and have this feeling of shared progress that we all owe a responsibility towards."
David Mort retweeted
Forced liquidations due to excess leverage typically mark near-term historical bottoms. Situational Awareness at ~4x leverage & over $20B in assets at its peak is now wound down. While I heard there were at least 3 other funds in trouble, today’s rally may have fixed their issues.
I also wanted to put today’s rally in context. I gave the stats in my post yesterday about the historic meltdown and why “In summary, my view is that we could have seen at least a short-term bottom today with a strong rally ahead of us in the sectors most caught in the latest speedbump.”
The 10.7% rally today in the Morgan Stanley Momentum Index beats all but the 11.1% gain on 4/3/2001 during the dotcom bust. All the other moves in the top 10 occurred during either Covid (3x), the GFC (2x) or the dotcom bust (3x).
For the more concentrated Morgan Stanley TMT (Tech Media & Telecom) Momentum Index today’s gain of 19.1% crushes the prior 11.9% gain seen on 12/5/00 during the dotcom bust. 5 of the other top 10 gains were seen just since November of 2025 during the recent meteoric rally. There were 3 more during the dotcom bust.
While some give back is certainly likely in the days ahead given the ferocity of this one day move, I believe we have seen the near-term bottom yesterday due to the forced liquidations. I am hopeful the “speedbump” I started expecting back on my June 20th post is now behind us. Getting oil prices back into the $70 range with a decline in bond yields would certainly increase the odds even more.
I believe we are still early in the adoption of Agentic AI and the 10-100x increase in tokens needed since January relative to Chat-based AI.
David Mort retweeted
Kimi K3 just fixed 15 critical security bugs that Codex and Fable refused because of “cyber guardrails.” There’s no reason to limit American models on tasks that Chinese models handle without issue. We’re only making ourselves less competitive.
David Mort retweeted
The market also needs to learn to differentiate among the business models of companies in “data centers”.
If the largest companies in the world now want to sell compute, that would logically increase demand for hard-to-find megawatts in an already constrained market. If a company has a 4.2GW portfolio of development sites and builds turnkey data centers for tenants (so the tenant can manufacture and sell compute), recent headlines seem very positive for such a company.
@CipherInc $CIFR
The market needs to learn how to differentiate among the teams building data centers. We are on schedule at Barber Lake and our confidence is unwavering.
$CIFR