Global War | Birthright Citizenship | CIA | Bear Brief 1JUL26 BEAR INDEPENDENT BRIEF After four years of carefully NOT poking Belarus, Ukraine’s president Zelensky issued Belarus’ Lukashenko a one-week ultimatum on June 19 to dismantle drone relay stations in the Gomel and Brest regions that Russian Shahed drones navigate once they cross into Ukrainian airspace, saying, "If he doesn’t do it, we will." Ukraine's drones can reach anywhere in Belarus, and its drone forces commander has reportedly mapped 500 potential targets there. Belarus may not be too eager for conflict, though. By June 24, the equipment apparently went dark, but Minsk didn’t officially say a word. Belarusian authorities apparently told mobile operators the towers were "interfering with grouse nesting sites." But Latvia's intelligence service has reported that there are indicators that Russia’s preparing a "provocation" against the Baltic states or Poland. Not a full-scale invasion, as Russia can't open a second front, but "hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems." A senior official from a second NATO member confirmed similar intelligence. Poland's prime minister said at a summit in Gdansk that "various types of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months." Ukraine's own long-range strike campaign has been hammering targets near Moscow and St. Petersburg, with nearly 200 drones hit Moscow last week, setting a refinery on fire. One western military source said, "I cannot lie, that is a period of danger." Slide eastward on the map to the Pacific, where Trump then met Xi in Beijing in May and reportedly discussed Taiwan extensively (though the White House readout barely mentioned it), and Xi warned the US to handle Taiwan "carefully" or face "a very dangerous situation." Then on June 10, for the first time, Taiwan fired US-supplied HIMARS rockets into the Strait toward China. Taiwan later launched five-day combat readiness drills, and in response, China's newest and most powerful aircraft carrier, the Fujian, sailed through the Taiwan Strait the day after. Just recently, China blacklisted four Japanese government defense research institutes and added dozens of Japanese companies to export control lists that cut access to Chinese dual-use goods, including rare earths. The companies include drone makers and nuclear fuel processors, clearly useful assets in a military conflict. This is an escalation of the longer pattern that all started when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could bring a military response from Tokyo, and it looks like Beijing is taking her at her word. And of course, the Middle East has yet another peace deal already on life support. The ink on the Lebanon-Israel framework agreement wasn't even dry before Israeli jets were back over southern Lebanon, conducting strikes, and Hezbollah called it "a blatant violation of the ceasefire" and reserved its right to respond. But the key development is an indication of a new war between Israel and Iran, further out of America’s control even than before. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz told military reporters Monday that Israel could be at war with Iran "tomorrow," saying, "If Iran fires missiles at Israel, Israel will strike Iran with force," and as if that wasn’t enough, "The IDF is just waiting for it and is on alert. There are targets." He has already ordered the military to prepare what he called a "blue-and-white operation" meaning, no American permission slip required. Two scenarios, he says: either Trump decides the diplomacy is finished and wants to start striking again, or Iran attacks first. "It could happen within two days." He described Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei as "marked for death," and added, "I suggest people not hold their breath waiting for the area from which Israel will withdraw. It will not happen." Each of these areas of conflict has threads leading back to the United States across politics, the military, the economy, and supply chains, and none if it is showing signs of settling down anytime soon. Relevant Links Map with aforementioned issues listed as having significant/critical US impact: cfr.org/global-conflict-trac… --- Refuge Kits show in Brief: TravelFAK: refugemedical.com/products/t… BearFAK: refugemedical.com/products/b… Use Code "Bear Nation" for 10% off your entire order, applies to every product in the store. --- See y'all when I see ya!

Heads on Spikes 2028 | National Intel | Bear Brief 26JUN26

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