Dick Taylor

US oil refiner stocks are skyrocketing: The S&P 500 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Index is up +136% YTD, set for its best annual performance on record. This is more than double the +65% gain seen during the 2022 energy crisis. By comparison, the next best years for the sector since 1996 were +80% in 2012 and +77% in 2005 Marathon Petroleum, $MPC, Valero Energy, $VLO, and Phillips 66, $PSX, are leading YTD gains, at +174%, +142%, and +117%, respectively. Furthermore, the oil refiners ETF, $CRAK, is up +65% over the same period, putting it on track for its strongest annual performance since its launch in August 2015. US oil refiners are experiencing a historic year.

Something that the world is quickly learning in the age of AI: If something can be hacked, it will be hacked. This week has been a prime example of this. Security has never been more crucial than it is now

BREAKING: Binance has been hacked with wallets across the Ethereum, Bitcoin, and TRON networks seeing outflows of -$5.7 billion. The hack includes $1.45 billion worth of Bitcoin and $875 million worth of ETH. If confirmed, this would mark the biggest hack in crypto history. We expect more information shortly.

Tech Stocks in Bear Market Territory: 1. AppLovin, $APP: -65% 2. CoreWeave, $CRWV: -57% 3. Coinbase, $COIN: -56% 4. Western Digital, $WDC: -52% 5. Oracle, $ORCL: -50% 6. Arm Holdings, $ARM: -49% 7. Circle, $CRCL: -44% 8. Sandisk, $SNDK: -42% 9. Robinhood, $HOOD: -40% 10. Seagate, $STX: -39% 11. ServiceNow, $NOW: -37% 12. Super Micro Computer, $SMCI: -35% 13. Intel, $INTC: -35% 14. Adobe, $ADBE: -34% 15. Broadcom, $AVGO: -31% 16. Marvell Technology, $MRVL: -30% 17. Alphabet, $GOOGL: -28% 18. IBM, $IBM: -25% 19. Micron, $MU: -24% 20. Meta, $META: -22% We are in a "stealth" bear market. Read our analysis below.

Demand is becoming a bigger driver of US inflation: Demand-driven components contributed +1.2 percentage points to the +3.4% YoY increase in PCE inflation in August, the largest contribution since September 2023. At the same time, supply-driven factors added +1.0 percentage point, while ambiguous factors accounted for another +1.2 percentage points. This contrasts with the post-pandemic inflation surge, when supply disruptions were the main driver. In 2022, supply-driven components contributed an average of +3.1 percentage points per month to headline PCE inflation, compared with +2.6 percentage points per month from demand-driven factors. This is a key distinction for Fed policy, as rising interest rates can slow demand, while their impact on supply-side pressures is limited. The composition of US inflation is shifting.

BREAKING: Home prices across America's 20 largest cities rose +0.3% MoM in August, marking their 5th consecutive monthly increase. YoY, prices jumped +2.7%, bringing the 20-City Composite Home Price Index to a record 346.6 points. Since the start of 2019, home prices have surged +56.5%. Chicago led all metros in August for the 6th consecutive month, recording a +6.7% YoY increase. New York and Cleveland followed, with YoY increases of +6.2% and +4.3%, respectively. Housing affordability continues to deteriorate.