FollowingtheNumbersElection2026

Hello everybody. I’m not going to be perfect but I’ll be hand calculating all the data with precision. Swing States: In 2020 I predict GA,NV, AZ, WI, MI, PA would all likely go to Biden the night of when looking at the numbers. Also predicted NC likely to Trump early the…

If you’re awaiting another MS vote batch tonight… I wouldn’t count on it… Likely no drops until tomorrow if I had to guess so get your sleep…

Colom winning by 40 point margins on the affidavit ballots in a county where it’s virtually tied overall shows how much better margins Colom is making on the batches coming in compared to the Election Day vote in pretty much every single county. This is something I’ve mentioning and it’s why even in deep red rural counties the margins just aren’t there for Hyde-Smith. She needed much better margins on non E day to have even a punchers chance. And then Hinds county is a 100 foot wall behind all of the other counties that just isn’t climbable for Hyde-Smith. There’s almost no scenario as I’ve repeatedly said that can allow Cindy Hyde-Smith to beat Scott Colom from a purely analytical perspective. It’s just waiting for the votes to be dropped to confirm the analysis. I’ll say it again. Scott Colom will almost certainly be the next senator of Mississippi.

Mississippi Senate Race Update: So we did get another small batch briefly after and(again no Hinds) Cindy-Hyde Smith won the batch 37-28 in a batch of 67 votes. Yes… only 67 votes… Hyde-Smith nets 9 votes over Scott Colom(55-42 margins). Scott Colom’s leads is virtually unchanged(over 1800 votes)as another 🔴 red rural MS county provides a batch of votes. If we’re lucky we can get another batch or two but I suspect we may be done for the day.

This is factually incorrect. There’s no analysis to support this. There are no runoffs or recounts in Mississippi either. The largest amount of vote to come will be from Hinds County and will skew heavily in favor for Scott Colom as I’ve mentioned. Scott Colom will almost certainly be the next senator of Mississippi based on remaining votes and where they have/will come from. Not to mention Colom has been netting votes in nearly every other batch outside of Hinds County since election night. Multiple reports suggest there are still tens of thousands of votes to come out Hinds County. Colom is winning Hinds County by 61 points and those of which are provisional/ mail ballots will skew heavily in Colom’s favor (potentially stronger than 80/19 margins). Let’s say Colom doesn’t even hit better than those margins and wins the rest of Hinds County at 80/19 margins… Here are various different scenarios of remaining vote totals from Hinds County and what it would net Colom. 10k remaining —> +6100 votes for Colom 20k remaining —>+12,200 votes for Colom 30k remaining —>+18,300 votes for Colom 40k remaining —>+24,400 votes for Colom 50k remaining —>+30,500 votes for Colom Again that’s assuming he doesn’t even net better margins than 80/19. In fact Colom could get down to 69/30 or 64/35 margins and it still wouldn’t be anywhere close enough for Hyde-Smith to overcome. Also reportedly there are still thousands of mail ballots to be reported across the state that will favor Colom(even in redder Hyde-Smith counties). There’s no feasible path to victory for Cindy Hyde-Smith to overcome these margins… I’d even argue Colom would’ve still had a somewhat decent shot to win if there were no votes remaining in Hinds County based on all of the batches we’ve been getting the past couple days. There’s no feasible path for Hyde-Smith to win and there’s no analysis to support a reason that the Hyde-Smith campaign should have any confidence in winning the Mississippi senate race respectfully.

BACK TO BACK UPDATES FROM MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE: Cindy Hyde-Smith finally wins a batch at high margins of 71-25%. A 🔴 +46 margin . Im guessing this was delayed E day from a rural red county. However for Hyde-Smith she really could’ve used a larger batch. The batch was so small she only netted 98 votes and Scott Colom lead holds by just over 1800 votes. It was a 213 vote batch total. So from the recent last 2 batches combined of over 900 votes Colom still nets votes technically. Nothing to change to the analysis. Obviously Hyde-Smith still has no realistic path with Hinds County being the grand prize that just won’t work in her favor.

NEW BATCH OF VOTES FROM MISSISSIPPI SENATE RACE: Almost exactly 700 votes just came in. Scott Colom won the batch ~61-36% and netted almost a 180 votes to give a near 1900 vote lead now. Another +25% margin. Again none of these from Hinds County. The fact that Cindy Hyde-Smith is not winning any of these non Hinds County batches again keeps supporting the analysis that Colom will defeat Hyde-Smith once all the votes are tallied.

Scott Colom will almost certainly be the first black senator in Mississippi to be elected by the people through popular vote ever. The last time there was a black senator elected in Mississippi? February 4th 1874 Blanche K. Bruce is elected by Mississippi state legislature(not via popular vote). Bruce was initially born into slavery in Virginia but escaped slavery during the civil war, later went onto college at Oberlin and then became the second black senator after Hiram Revels in 1875. Bruce was a big advocate for civil rights and spoke against election fraud.

Also… None of these were from Hinds County… I checked the Hinds County vote tally to confirm. Hinds County says they are counting votes actively and are not going to drop them until they are done according to their most recent update. Like I said previously at this point the question shouldn’t be does Scott Colon or Cindy Hyde-Smith win… But rather how much does Colom win by.

I went through every state to see what if we matched the election results from the Senate/Governor/House races nationwide to an electoral college map. Now a true presidential election would likely yield different results and you can’t truly quantify that kind of data 1:1 But this rough map estimate can help simplify the data from the seismic shift we saw this election cycle.

The Kansas governor race is also very close, But based on the lead Cindy Holscher has, along with the amount of remaining votes, and where they’re coming from… It should be a victory (with high confidence) for Holscher over Ty Masterson and the race will go to the democrat nominee once all the votes are counted.

If true the question is now turning into how much will Scott Colom win by against the incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith… How many thousands of votes does he win by. He could legitimately win by 5 figures if there’s at least 20k+ votes in Hinds County… And yesterday his margins from a handful counties were 65-75+ to ~35/25. If they’re waiting to drop them all at once perhaps we’ll be able to get that official call from the media outlets once the Hinds county vote dump comes in. Again I repeat myself but Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi. You can view analysis linked here on why teapawt.org/electionstats24/status…

None of these are from Hinds County btw… The path for Hyde-Smith to win the Mississippi senate race was never all that feasible since counting stopped last night based on analysis. But at this point it’s likely just waiting for votes to be counted as the only thing preventing an official call from being made. Like I said earlier… Scott Colom will defeat Cindy Hyde-Smith and be the first democratic senator in Mississippi in almost half a century when all of the votes are counted. Along with being the first black senator in Mississippi since the 19th century. Ulysses S. Grant was the president at the time Blanche K. Bruce was elected to the senate. At this point the question is how much does Colom win by… There are no runoffs or automatic recounts either in MS. All votes have to be counted and certified over the next couple weeks. A huge pick up for democrats and devastating loss for Republicans in the senate

THE VOTES ARE COMING IN: Another batch has just been reported and Scott Colom now has a lead over 1.1K and just netted 713 votes over Hyde-Smith. ~65-35 in this latest batch with Colom + 30. Given how much he just netted and how much more still to be counted of Hinds County… Almost all confidence at this point that the analysis we laid out is coming to fruition and Scott Colom will be the next senator of Mississippi barring something completely unforeseen or drastic and defeat Hyde-Smith.