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Ameya Deosthali differentiated insights for value investing Business Enquiries : [email protected]

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Joined August 2024
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I repeat , Delhivery concall is an absolute masterclass in Logistics in India , even if you just want to understand the space , it is really good , I think management clarity that Sahil and team have is phenomenal , more then what they do , they know what not to do, find this clarity rarely !
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Ramkrishna Forgings , Delhivery & IEX call notes coming tomorrow , really happy with the way earnings season has been going so far RKF , Laurus and Indegene have made me happiest this season , you will see many popular momentum chasing accounts starting to tweet on Indegene and RKF give it two days , thats why covering it when no one was gives me more delight , and you all know it ! Lot of notes and research coming tommorow and over the next week folks
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Ramkrishna Forgings , numbers now proving the thesis we had built 😀 Disc : biased , no reco ,
Ramkrishna Forgings — Q2FY27 Results 🔔 #Q2Results #Q2FY27 #Ramkrishna Revenue ₹1405.42 Cr vs ₹907.53 Cr (+54.86% YoY┃+15.51% QoQ) EBITDA ₹256.23 Cr vs ₹122.55 Cr (+109.08% YoY┃+17.28% QoQ) EBITDA Margin 18.23% vs 13.50% YoY & 17.96% QoQ PBT +₹95.46 Cr vs -₹10.27 Cr YoY & +₹64.73 Cr QoQ (+47.47% QoQ) PAT +₹70.59 Cr vs -₹9.50 Cr YoY & +₹46.88 Cr QoQ (+50.58% QoQ) Other Income ₹4.20 Cr vs ₹5.75 Cr YoY & ₹3.44 Cr QoQ
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Indegene , slowly all the attention will come ..., wait for that 19% H2 EBITDA, you are seeing already how suddenly many are talking about it today on the back of strong numbers
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Indegene Q2FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call concluded earlier this morning H2 EBITDA margin comeback will be there (4Q heavy) , customers level growth , funding and market is back , bio pharm GTM team ahs seen good additions , expecting PAT flowthrough to start in Q3 and increase in Q4 , cost base for hikes is fully in this Quarter disc: biased , no reco , do your research , take opinion with pinch of salt
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Laurus Labs Q2FY27 , Aarti Pharmalabs and Styrenix Performance , my latest audio note on substack , discussing my opinions and thoughts on the latest numbers and updates link : substack.com/@valueequityin/…
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Laurus Labs Q2FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call just concluded Strong numbers , Peptides capex , and on new acqusitions and what lies ahead no reco , biased from much lower levels
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Aarti PharmaLabs Q2FY27 concall notes , my notes from the call just ended CDMO guidance intact , Xanthine phase wise scale up over the next yera , Q3 expect some capitalisation and depriciation costs , margins we expect to improve as mix gets better and expecting R&D Trends to accelerate , more notes below , detailed thoughts on substack audio note in the evening , if you haven't already , do follow it substack.com/@valueequityin no reco , biased from lower levels
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Laurus labs , very strong Q2 numbers , 2 years back Q2FY25 where we saw the iceberg CDMO , today market rewarding the courage showcased by Dr Satya , what a great last 2-3 years it has been to be part of journey with Laurus no reco,biased from much lower levels
Laurus labs annual report is a must read for people who want to learn more about the iceberg CDMO business under development at Laurus, the scale and business they might be able to pull of over a 10 year period might surprise most on the upside , the CDMO Era is about to begin?!
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CarTrade Tech , many will understand today , why I had written an exit note below in Jan early this year , at that time many were hyping , but now a year returns are now close to 0 Selling at right time is equally important , and not getting into the hype
Cartrade Tech Q3FY26 results , flat numbers QOQ , decent set YOY , I think after making a good 4 x we are now booking out and exiting at 2450 , done really well for us disc: invested and biased at 860 from more than a year now exiting ! , no fresh reco or financial advice
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Two notes I read every single morning , usually I keep this side of my personality on Substack , but I thought it might be useful Steve jobs and Man in the Arena
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I still manually listen to all earnings calls in my coverage and put out my notes here for you all to see , Can easily do AI notes, but they don't capture the qualitative information and even the actual sense of management commentary , I listen to AI notes for non coverage , or just quick reads Its hard work , but rewarding
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Lots of sectoral notes also coming your way as more peers results get declared , so we get to see the industry specific trends , both in optimistic and sectors where peak pessimism is playing out , lot more coverage earrings coming next week as well
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EU+1 is the real theme , there are a lot of plants being shut down across sectors in chemicals , forgings and more , look at Indian companies that can take that market and not only do business in EU , but use EU as a global platform to expand , just EU is not enough Now EU books are building out a huge defence capex , approved vendors will rush for bids
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You cannot buy a stock thinking it will be a multi-bagger , you are merely rewarded for a process that sets the highest probability for strong outcomes , many times you won’t know which stock can surprise you the most , but process that is strong enables this optionality to reveal multibaggers The return is the reward of the process that enables asymmetric returns Process > one stock
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Ramkrishna Forgings Capex tracker , mapping the capex and earnings push source : internal research disc: biased from lower levels , no reco, dyod
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Filter the good company in a bad cycle , track the capex , watch for early signs of industry structure , see how business is positioned to capture the cycle , wait for capex inflection point ( plant crossing 30% ) , map out incremental PAT , and play the theme Industry structure is what defines the PAT growth , a good company in a bad industry will remain a good business but a bad stock , my opinion
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Books must read, re sharing my list , as many of you have sent me emails on this: All of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Investing from Darwin Pulak prasad , Richer Wiser happier and Books on Probabilities and financial history of central banks and Capital returns to understand capital cycles , thinking fast and slow RBI governers - Gokul rathi , The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest Book by Edward Chancellor Zurich Axioms, The Halo Effect and Against the gods Zurich Axioms : a book that changes my perception on risk every time I read it , risk as a word is very misunderstood Podcast: founders podcast , Nicolai Tangen Norges bank podcast Theres a saying as well that one must study a war general and their tactics to learn as well , even recently watching the Movie Odyssey reminded me of so many lessons that I could apply to the world of investing Alot about investing is learnt from the non finance books , character , courage and persistence ! So much learning available if we are willing to do it , that is why I also incorporate a lot of the learnings I have on my substack audio notes along with the businesses I cover , so do check it out if you are interested ! substack.com/@valueequityin
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Sunflag Iron and Steel , Capabilty Stack and nature of clients that they have gotten some vendor approvals from and are in early stages facilities like Electro Slag Refining (ESR); Vacuum Induction Melting (VIM) and Vacuum Arc Remelting (VAR), which cater to Nuclear, Aerospace and Defence sectors. During the year 2025-26, the following grades were developed 1.Bearing grades for ball application; 2. Ingot route large RCS blocks grade 17CrNiMo6 for forging; 3. High temperature application Valve steel 21-4N; 4.Large size tool steels and Die Steels; 5. Superalloys Inconel 625; 6. AMS 6509 Aerospace application has strengthened its technical capabilities and earned vendor approvals from leading organizations including VSSC, LPSC, HAL, BrahMos, DRDO, DRDL, NPCIL, Solar Industries, Paras Defence, HYT Innovatives, Adani Defence, and global OEMs. Just contextualise the annual report of last year vs this year , you will see the big diffrence , This+ Lloyds metals stake -Holdco discount +7/10 promoter , there is a lot to unpack here I have also laid out my detailed opinions on substack , you can listen to my audio note covering the business there ! link: substack.com/home/post/p-217… disc: no reco , biased , do your own due diligence and research , take opinion with salt
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My advantage is not IQ it is trigger pulling; I have a narrow form of intelligence that allows me to love and play this game - Stanley Druckenmiller Many times I say as well that when valuations are at a discount courage is at a premium , it is very easy to back CDMO , Aerospace today , because themes are consensus and now valuations are so expensive , but when 2 years back many where in Capex phase , courage was missing in those same who are calling it structural today ! Smartest will not win in this game , but disciplined backed courage wins Courage beats intellect in reward , learnt that very quick
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