Solana Lilly 💕

#Bitcoin is at a critical point. The Spot ETF has done wonders for this recent rally. On the other hand, the macro seems to be getting worse by the day. Two major forces, each one pulling in the opposite direction. Here's how I think this unfolds 👇 Battling down #inflation contributes to 2 negative things for Bitcoin: - People stop searching for non-depreciative assets; - Increases the risk of a recession; The first point is obvious, the core idea of #Bitcoin is to stop the powerful from printing our wealth away. The second one is not so apparent, as many people don't consider #Bitcoin to be a risk asset. If a person or business is in financial trouble, they usually dump the asset which is the most speculative. And although I am extremely bullish long-term, I must say that #Bitcoin is mostly speculation, with not much current real-world utility. Inflation can't go away magically, as #liquidity needs to be drained. And there isn't a good way to drain liquidity that doesn't require a recession. To build on this, Bitcoin's public perception is very bad. Retailers who are interested in #Bitcoin currently are already in. And nobody will give up the power of self-custody to buy through the spot ETF. Institutions who are interested in $BTC would also be looking at how to survive the #recession, instead of spending more on speculative assets. This is mostly apparent with the most recent rally which put in a new ATH, but the Total market cap of crypto as a whole was at the same level of April. This indicates that it is the same money being traded back and forth. This further supports the claim of institutions not buying but rather #web3 peeps. I don't believe we go up much further, and that this rally will turn sooner rather than later.

#Bitcoin just put in a new yearly HIGH! To be honest, I didn't see this pump coming. And although this move is impressive, I would argue it is the same capital rotating around. Here is a breakdown of why that is 👇 The Total chart represents the total crypto market cap, the entire asset class. And if we see the chart below, it's clear that we are at the same capitalization levels as April. There is no new money in the #crypto ecosystem. Everything is being traded back and forth. But #Bitcoin is putting in new yearly highs, while the rest of the market lags behind. This is why I was really vocal about how #altcoins are way riskier than #Bitcoin. #Ethereum is struggling to stay above 1.8k, and not to mention other #alts. This weakness also shows that we are still in a bear market structure, as liquidity is flowing from alts to #Bitcoin. And not to mention the macro headwinds that are still awaiting us. I still believe we will go down sooner or later, but to what level, I have no idea, as a spot ETF approval changes the game entirely.

NFTs are NOT dead! They have been a laughingstock for some time on the internet. But the technology is maturing, and the "everything up" PFP days are over. Just that it pains me to see people #FUD the technology because their bags went to zero. Isn't this... what we wanted? The recognition & utilization of this new emerging technology...? Apparently yes, for the 10% who are still here. The NFT climate will be harsh, and only the worthy projects will survive. Projects need to fail such that "natural selection" does its thing. For example, #web3 gaming is a winning idea, but no one has been able to crack it! It's either a job or it just fails. But with every new attempt, we are ever so closer to actually making it work! And looking into the far future, #NFTs are going to be legal contracts, property ownership, personal certificates, etc. Conclusion: Don't lose sight of the bigger picture. If you followed some of my recent #NFT calls, you would be up a lot. NFTs are not going away anytime soon. And the technology has grown so fast that this drop should be expected. Instead of seeing this period as "unfortunate", let us change our perspective and see it as an opportunity. An opportunity that many will not have a year away from now.

The $ETH / $BTC chart is being MASSACRED! It is in a state of freefall, very close to putting in a new bottom! On the other hand, close is far away from actually putting it in. Below is an overview of the current fundamentals of #ETH 👇 Basically, the whole narrative for #Ethereum this market was the following: - ETH is now Proof of Stake; - ETH is now deflationary; It is reasonable to assume that the deflationary nature kept the price elevated in this #bear market. But as that aspect disappeared, we saw sharp moves to the downside. For example, in the past 30 days, the supply has increased by more than 30,000 ETH! The inflationary supply began in early September, exactly when ETH/BTC started going down. We should see downside pressure until this flips back to deflationary. Also, a short-term rally is probable around these levels, but a later breakdown to around 0.05 is very likely.

The Grayscale court decision is FINAL! They WON! This is MAJOR progress in the fight for a #Bitocin spot ETF! And could just mean that we will get a spot ETF in 2024! Here is my speculation of what happens 👇 I want to start off and say that in every system, there will be corruption. In capitalism, Capital is the most important thing anyone could possess. The filing of BlackRock made the situation serious. And once the big players enter, the #SEC can't continue to unjustly suppress it. This is evident in yesterday's decision by the SEC not to appeal the #Grayscale ruling. This forces the SEC to give us a fair path to a spot ETF! Now, even if the former is true, we might not get this ETF until late 2024. This is because the SEC can still play ball & reject them for some minor thing. But with every rejection, they are forced to define further what a #Bitcoin spot ETF should look like. And in the case of a reapply, the 240-day forced response means that we will still be in time to get a #BitcoinETF in 2024! But at the end of the day, no matter if we get it in 2024 or 2025, now that #BlackRock is involved, one thing is for certain: "We will eventually get a #Bitcoin spot ETF" Thank you for reading. Please consider liking, following & retweeting if you found this insightful.

The #StockMarket is BARELY holding the trend line! This line acted as the last support for the bullish trend since the bottom a year ago! But it seems to be finally crumbling. Here is what you should expect next 👇 Despite everyone calling for a new bull run, I have been calling for lower prices in traditional markets and #crypto respectively for a while now. The key to understanding why is the following: When a recession is obvious, you are already too late. It is before it occurs that you prepare for it & position yourself to take advantage of it. If you were alive to experience the 2008 financial crisis, the $SPX bottomed out when everything appeared helpless. Everyone sold their bags because "We are in a #recession and markets are tanking". Little did they know, they were selling to the people who patiently waited for that opportunity. Learn from history & the mistakes of others, as they tend to repeat themselves.

In just 2 days, September #Bitcoin will close either green or red. Currently, it is more than 5% up from the monthly open and has bullish momentum. But we have also hit this #trendline, which could send Bitcoin back down. Which way will it go? Currently, it is anyone's guess. And with so little time remaining, TA cannot provide reliable signals that will play out in 2 days' time. But, there is one thing that you should keep an eye on, and that's a bull trap. Isn't it funny how this rally begins right at the monthly opening? The rally might be bait for longs to join the market, only to be hammered back down to 24k in a liquidation-cascade type event. Because red September might be caused by traders' speculation on Bitcoin closing every September red. It might just be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The white line is where Bitcoin needs to close below if it closes red. Let's see if #Bitcoin, and with it, if #Crypto can #hodl the line! 2 days ⏳

The $DXY finally broke through! Seeing the #dollar go up with such strength in this straight 11-green week rally surprised me! But this doesn't mean it is up only from now on. At the bottom of this post, you will see 2 charts. One shows the present, and the other shows 2014, the last time that $USD had a rally similar to this. A 13-week green rally! If we observe carefully, you will see that we had big resistance at the white line. And in that rally, we sliced through the #resistance like butter! Only to go back down and retest it the next couple of weeks. Remember, nothing goes up only, and with the dollar being in its 11th green week, we should start to price in an eventual retracement.

The #Dollar is about to close its 10th green weekly candle! And as it closes on the resistance, many wonder which path it will take. Don't miss this as your portfolio is at stake 👇 So, the #FED is pretty clear about keeping #interestrates elevated for an extended duration. This means that as lower-interest loans expand, the $USD created by banks via fractional reserve lending will get drained more and more. As a consequence, the Dollar will experience upward pressure. But also, let's not forget that 2/3 of FED participants think that another rate hike is necessary by the end of 2023. I think a revisit of 110 is bound to happen, with a strong possibility of continuing the trend **IF** we see another rate hike. As a closing note, it is interesting to note that the last time the dollar experienced a continued uptrend, was in 2014, with 12 green candles. It was the beginning of a massive rally, that took the $DXY by 25% by the end of it. If we see the same move today, it would put it at 125, but more realistically we should top out by 120.

The ETH/BTC chart has been getting squeezed since 2016! And with continuous pressure, we are bound to break in a direction. Here is what I think the most likely scenario is: Firstly, let's put some things into perspective. - The #trendlines do not meet until mid-2024; - There are 2 macro supports that come before the trendline; Currently, we are hanging right above the first of two support levels. And with the weakening macro and 3 tests, it is probably going to break: paving the way for a retest of the #trendline. Plus, if we observe the previous #bearmarket, we can confidently say that during it, #Ethereum dropped a lot compared to #Bitcoin. And it actually dropped ~90%! This is nothing compared to the current drop of 32%! With that said, although I am extremely bullish on Ethereum over the long run, as of now, we will probably see us breaking below the trendline and build a base for the next bull run! Where we will once again try to break 0.1 $ETH / $BTC!

The #FOMC meeting has concluded. And the decision? Remain at current rates. With the end of 2023 nearing its end, we should start questioning if this is the terminal rate. Here is what the FED and the market think: /1

FTX will CRASH the #altcoin market! In less than 2 days, the bankrupt exchange seeks approval to liquidate 3.4 Billion worth of crypto! Among it is $685 million worth of $SOL, which constitutes almost 10% of the coin's market cap! The partial good news is that the majority of the $SOL is locked, but the same cannot be said about the other coins. The selling will be done on a weekly basis, as FTX will only be allowed to sell $100 million of tokens per week, but this limit can be increased to $200 million on an individual token basis. Now, I stay clear of giving financial advice, but please be aware of the risks this poses to the altcoin market. This is the phase of the market cycle where altcoins get wrecked, and the start of the creation of #Bitcoin maxies!

Oh, most of X is sleeping? Say hi in the comments if you are still in the NFT game! or rather say gm ;)

The #Altcoin market is on the brink of collapsing! It is continuously getting squeezed by the trendline, and soon it will be forced to make a decision. This decision will be crucial, and a lot of indicators point to the altcoin market going down. Macro factors, such as liquidity drying up, will also affect it. -The altcoin market collectively is worth ~ 240 billion (minus stablecoins). This doesn't even represent 50% of the market cap of #Bitcoin, meaning that the collective liquidity of the altcoin market is much more vulnerable. And people usually invest in a couple of coins, with their independent liquidity. Which further increases this risk. If you really wish to have exposure to #crypto, I think sticking to liquid currencies is a must in this phase of the market. Even if you miss out on an altcoin pump, you will be happy to preserve your money. As a lot of #altcoins will go to Zero. But the money you save will probably make an x10 in Bitcoin in the next bull run.