Sokoma retweeted
This is from about a year ago. I stand by what I said then with deeper conviction today.
I want to share the story behind why I joined Opendoor
(It might be a little long. I'm not media trained, so this will be straight from the dome and I'm just going to hit send at the end)
The last 4 years I was basically retired. I started a small fund and was having a great time investing. I live a pretty modest life so I never really planned to work again. Over the years so many companies reached out. I met with the execs of large public companies, celebrities and athletes that were starting software companies, and so on. Some I really considered, but always ended up say no. It wasn't about the money, they offered insane amounts but I just liked my simple life. I'd drop my kid at school, bike to the studio space I share with a bunch of my friends, spend the day reading, investing, coding, grab a coffee, and head home.
I've always been fascinated by asymmetric risks. Usually I do it from the sidelines like any other retail investor. I've also seen how often consensus is flat out wrong. I was at Shopify as a lowly PM when this short seller report came out in 2017 calling the business a pyramid scheme. It was crazy to reconcile what I was seeing in front my eyes, a company operating at maximum excellence, hypergrowth, etc and everyone else repeating whatever they heard. Turns out they were wrong.
I saw this a few times over. Before Shopify, while I was building my first startup, everyone thought we were idiots. These were credible people with serious sounding job titles at hot tech companies. We ended up getting acquired by HubSpot. Turns out they were wrong.
When Carvana got decimated, and even today, people love the narrative that it's a fraud. Turns out it's a great business that people just don't understand. I was deeply invested in the business and knew the business was turning around while at the same time the media was publishing fear. Turns out they were wrong.
After Robinhood got decimated, same thing, people were unable to consider that the business can change and evolve. I posted an experiment and my P&L on twitter and people DMed me calling me an idiot, over indexed, going to 0, and so on. Not just the anon accounts but real people I know and respect. Turns out they were all wrong.
I guess I'm not just fascinated by asymmetric risk but I'm addicted to situations where I think everyone else is wrong. At Opendoor, it's incredible man, I get to actually do the work, not just watch from the sidelines. I get to work with people that are at the top of their craft and fully committed to the mission.
So, when the opportunity came up. It was an instant decision. I "un-retired" and am all-in on the biggest bet of my life. We'll see how it works out but you already know where I placed my chips.
At the end of the day, none of this shit matters. We just have to ball out, have fun, and pursue excellence. I'm not doing this for the money, I already have more than I can spend in my lifetime. I'm doing this for the love of the game and most importantly, I'm doing this because I think everyone else is wrong.
Sokoma retweeted
Absolutely insane strength from $ZEC given the broader market weakness.
I've started to buy $CYPH again for the first time in a long while (for those asking).
Will explain why this weekend. 🫡
Sokoma retweeted
Just watched the $OPEN earnings call.
@nejatian @ChristyS_SF: Great presentation of Q3, thank you. One of your best, if I’m being honest.
As an Opendoor shareholder, it’s hard not to be satisfied with what I heard. The company is being built the right way: laying a solid foundation instead of chasing short-term optics. That’s exactly how I’d approach it if I were running the company.
This call was reassuring. Management is clearly prioritizing what’s important for the long term over duct-tape fixes that might make the quarter look better. I’d rather see weaker numbers now if they reflect the necessary work that sets the company up for stronger results next year.
With the current strategy, balance sheet, and execution, Opendoor appears to be heading exactly where it needs to go. They’re attracting more buyers and sellers, improving the offering, advancing metrics across the board, and moving toward an asset-light model at a rapid pace. The fact that Kaz and the team have created a path to scale without taking on additional real estate risk is significant.
I know many investors are focused on profitability and macro risk, but for me personally, I don’t know what more I can demand of our CEO right now. It’s clear we’re heading in the right direction. We now own 0.5% of the American real estate market. I’m pretty confident that number will keep rising as more Americans discover Opendoor and find a service that fits their needs.
I’m glad Opendoor is no longer a “one service, take it or leave it” business. Soon, any buyer or seller should be able to find a product that fits their specific situation. I’m also happy to see the cash offer becoming a smaller and smaller portion of the business.
It will also be interesting to watch mortgage, escrow, and the other ancillary businesses continue to grow.
For me, real success will come when ordinary people who aren’t even buying or selling a home still choose to transact with Opendoor. That will happen long before those numbers fully show up in the financials and profitability reports. At that point, Opendoor will have built something that will be very hard for any competitor to outmaneuver.
And that’s what we want as investors: huge growth with a moat so deep that nobody can seriously threaten them.
Still very long and bullish. Never selling.
Sokoma retweeted
To the $OPEN shareholders or ex-shareholders whining all over X today:
You bought a distressed company attempting a massive turnaround in a distressed housing market. What exactly did you expect this to look like?
If your response to a $1.50 share price is “it’s Kaz’s fault” or “it’s the board’s fault,” without any discussion of the business, its valuation, or the turnaround itself, I question whether you understood what you bought.
Management deserves scrutiny. But a falling stock price, by itself, isn’t an analysis.
This is going to be messy. They might figure it out. They might not. Failure is a real possibility, and conviction doesn’t make that risk disappear.
I’m long $OPEN because I believe the potential upside justifies the risk. It’s an asymmetric bet I’m willing to take, and I intend to remain long as long as that thesis holds.
If you need a smooth ride and constant reassurance, go buy the S&P 500.
You don’t have to own Opendoor. But if you do, understand what you own and size the position so you can handle being wrong.
Sokoma retweeted
I haven't watched the full earnings call yet, but I'll finish it this weekend. The numbers are consistent with what Kaz said was going to happen. The pricing concessions have resulted in lower revenue. My tracker estimated approximately 2,543 homes sold at an average price close to $385K, while the final reported average, based on 2,728 homes sold, came in closer to $370K. This could happen again in Q4, which is why I believe management was more conservative with its Q4 guidance.
For now, the tracker points to a potential floor of $1.15B in revenue, but actual revenue has consistently come in above that floor due to revenue sources beyond home sales alone, as well as homes that were not detected by the tracker.
In Accountable, they have added the listing contracts they have secured, where Opendoor does not purchase the property but simply lists it for sale. It's important to keep in mind that if one of these properties sells, the revenue will not include the full value of the home. Because of that, the tracker will need to be updated to avoid misinterpreting revenue figures. The volume is still relatively low, so the impact should not be significant for now. However, as volume grows and these properties become increasingly mixed with homes that are actually carried on Opendoor's balance sheet, discrepancies are likely to emerge.
Sokoma retweeted
It’s too late for me to do a full review of $OPEN and the numbers / commentary. But I’ll say a few words:
> Under the hood, the NEW business at Opendoor is genuinely working and it's bigger than the headline numbers suggest. Kaz admitted on the call that he "underestimated how big a business title and escrow could become.” it's already running 3x last year's volume, and they're now extending it to transactions that have nothing to do with Opendoor.
>Same with this week's launch of Buy with Opendoor: the full product suite including mortgage, title, escrow now open to buyers whether or not they buy an Opendoor home.
>Cash Now, More Later passing $1B of volume in a year, mortgage originations up 5x in a quarter, and marketing cost per acquired home down 57%, and the pattern is clear: the future of this company is owning the transaction, not the house.
> What they got wrong was timeline and sequencing. They were far too aggressive. Acquisitions ramped +316% before the resale system was ready.
>by management's own scorecard, acquisitions are "solid green" and resale velocity is "yellow." homes bought before the discipline was in are being cleared at a loss, with the pain guided into Q1.
>The result is bloated, aging inventory 7,596 homes, $2.57B on the books, stale listings doubled to 18%
>carrying costs eating the P&L with two-thirds of the Q4 loss guide is holding costs. The CFO has now conceded both profit targets are behind schedule.
> The balance sheet isn't broken with $910M in cash. But $1.8B of operating cash burn in nine months means the clock is ticking louder than the plan assumed.
The new business is becoming more real. The old one's mistakes are what they have to outrun because they got to antsy to wait another Quarter or two before ramping acquisitions.
Time will tell. For now I’m still long my small piece and looking to add!
Sokoma retweeted
Looking forward to give you all an update about what we've been up to for the past few months at Opendoor.
We'll go live in about an hour on @Opendoor.
Sokoma retweeted
I’ve run the numbers for $OPEN Q3: around $1.03B revenue (+12.5% YoY) and $34.5M contribution profit. Note, this does not include stock-based compensation and the headline figures you’ll see all over X will be based on SBC.
That uses 2,728 Accountable resale closings, an assumed $377.5k per home and a 3.35% contribution margin. One of the things that may be lower is the assumed $377.5k per home given latest comments.
Revenue and margin line up with @nejatian’s Sept. 9 post. He’d already flagged that the housing slowdown pushed EBITDA progress back 6–8 weeks.
For Q4, I’m pencilling in $1.08B revenue (+47% YoY), assuming roughly 2,880 resale closings at $375k each.
Sokoma retweeted
Sokoma retweeted
STATEMENT FROM JACK CAMPBELL
My family and I want to sincerely thank everyone for the overwhelming amount of love, prayers, and support we’ve received over the past few days. It means more to us than words can express.
I’m incredibly encouraged by the progress I’ve made in such a short period of time. I have full movement in my lower body, and I’m continuing to make progress with movement in my upper body. I know there’s still work ahead, but I remain very optimistic. I’m taking things one day at a time, staying positive, and focusing on getting better.
My faith in God has never been stronger. I know He has a plan for me, and I trust in that plan. I know there may be challenges ahead, but with my faith, my family, and so many people in my corner, I know we’ll get through this.
I especially want to thank the athletic trainers and medical personnel who responded and cared for me on the field. I know those were difficult moments, and I’m incredibly grateful for the professionalism, compassion, and care you showed me. The way you handled everything and looked after me when I needed it most is something I’ll never forget. From the bottom of my heart, thank you.
I also can’t say enough about the incredible care I’ve received from the medical team at Henry Ford Hospital and the Detroit Lions medical staff. They’ve been amazing to me and my family throughout this process, and I’m truly grateful for everything they’ve done.
To my teammates, coaches, and everyone in the Lions organization, I want you to know how much I love and appreciate you. This team is a family to me, and the way everyone has been there for me means everything. I’m proud to be a Detroit Lion and couldn’t ask to be surrounded by a better group of people.
One thing I’ve learned about Detroit is that this city is built on toughness, resilience, and grit. That’s exactly how I’m going to approach this challenge.
Please continue to keep me and my family in your prayers. We feel the love, and I can’t thank everyone enough.
God is good. My faith is strong.
Jack Campbell
Sokoma retweeted
Fantastic news for Jack Campbell!
Here’s the most important part of this statement:
“I have full movement in my lower body, and I’m continuing to make progress with movement in my upper body.”
This means he is not paralyzed, as he has full movement of his lower half, but his upper body is not quite back to normal.
Based on analysis of the video and this new news, Campbell likely suffered a ‘central cord syndrome from a hyperextension mechanism.’
He has a lot of work/rehab to do but overall this is GREAT POSITIVE news considering the other possibilities. Long journey ahead but I’m confident he can get back to 100%.
Wishing him the best of luck and praying for him. 🙏🏼
(FYI I’m still retired from discussing injuries but felt this one was particularly important)
Sokoma retweeted
$OPEN 🚨🎬🏡🇺🇸
Buried in the accountable.opendoor.com product log: @Opendoor rebuilt comparable-home search to work across the fragmented regional listing systems that split up U.S. housing data. It's the quiet plumbing that makes every offer smarter.
The dashboard data is as of Oct 31. Heads up: clearance has slipped from a 1.27x peak in late September to 1.08x
The receipts are already on the dashboard: homes clearing 8% better than the MLS, above the market every week since late August, and weekly acquisition contracts up 42% year over year.
Plumbing first, scale second.
$OPEN house tomorrow, Nov 5th
Sokoma retweeted
$OPEN
Now 1.74 😭
Real Question: Is she following my whisper? Or I am decoding her move?
This girl is really heading to 1.54
Currently: there is no support 😭.
Good news is: there is bullish divergence long term and short term. Just doing the shakeout and waiting for the spark!
$OPEN got a fresh “D” today. The last 9 times that she got the “D”, she dropped
When she was:
At $5, I saw her at 3.03-3.45
At $3.6, I saw her in 2.00s
At $2.8, I saw her at 1.86-2.25
At $2.31 (10/5/26), I saw her at 1.62
At $2.10, I saw her at 1.54
Now at $1.92, I see her < $1.54 🤦♀️
Currently:
🟨 yellow bearish candles
🧬 🟪🟦🟩GPS still northbound
🟩 at support. But the support zone is 1.54 deep
Watching her …
Read my old posts 👇 below
Sokoma retweeted
D.R. Horton just sent a warning about $OPEN's earnings Thursday.
America's largest homebuilder reported:
• Orders DOWN 7%
• Cancellations UP to 23%
• Gross margins DOWN to 19.5%
• Selling communities UP 10%
Think about that.
More places to sell homes. Fewer buyers pulling the trigger.
But here's what caught my attention: Horton says buyers are still interested. They're just hesitant to transact.
That's potentially both the biggest risk AND the biggest opportunity for Opendoor.
I went through Horton's earnings transcript, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley's latest housing research to identify the six metrics I'll be watching Thursday.
And why contribution margin and inventory turnover could matter far more than headline revenue.
**Is this housing downturn exposing Opendoor's weakness—or creating the conditions for its transformation?**
My full earnings preview and bull/base/bear scenarios are now available exclusively to subscribers.
If you want to subscribe, there's a link in my bio.
long $OPEN ; no position $DHI