Prediction markets are growing fast. The companies behind them should be growing responsibly. We're watching.
Joined May 2026
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🚨According to an exclusive report obtained by CNBC, there were numerous, unusual price spikes on Kalshi and Polymarket that pushed the odds in favor of LA Mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt.
Pratt had a 78% chance to advance to the runoff on Kalshi and lost.
Afterwards, Kalshi’s paid social media influencers suggested Pratt’s falling odds were evidence of California stealing the election.
FairPredicts will be playing close attention on Tuesday.
FairPredicts retweeted
🚨 Kalshi CEO caught lying AGAIN.
On Ben Shapiro’s podcast, CEO Tarek Mansour said calling Kalshi a “truth machine” was a “mistake” they made “a few years ago.”
We checked the record.
Tarek called Kalshi a "truth machine" in an interview LAST WEEK.
Watch👇
FairPredicts retweeted
Polymarket was forced to halt trading on its international platform Thursday for nearly an hour because of what it said was a third-party compromise.
There were also unconfirmed reports from users on Polymarket’s Discord channel who said their wallets had been drained. nbcnews.com/business/consume…
🚨 Kalshi CEO caught lying AGAIN.
On Ben Shapiro’s podcast, CEO Tarek Mansour said calling Kalshi a “truth machine” was a “mistake” they made “a few years ago.”
We checked the record.
Tarek called Kalshi a "truth machine" in an interview LAST WEEK.
Watch👇
FairPredicts retweeted
At least $2.6 million in user funds was drained from Polymarket accounts on Thursday after hackers exploited an engineering flaw in the prediction market’s website. on.wsj.com/4yLxB43
Tarek isn't telling you the entire truth.
You don't just trade against "Kelly" or "Ben".
You are also often trading against:
1. Kalshi's affiliate trading arm, Kalshi Trading LLC or
2. Billion dollar market makers partnered with Kalshi like Susquehanna International Group.
Visit Kalshilies.com to learn the truth.
First, full disclosure, as always: Kalshi is a sponsor on our show. So people will take any opinion with a grain of salt, which is fine. But at the heart of the Kalshi question is a simpler one: what’s the difference between a prediction market and a traditional betting platform, like DraftKings? I asked Tarek Mansour that question directly. Here’s his answer.
FairPredicts retweeted
🚨In a new interview, Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara confirms 75% of people lose money on Kalshi.
This is even higher than the two-thirds number Kalshi reported in July.
Luana defended the number by comparing Kalshi losses to day trading: "It’s never quoted next to how many people lose money day trading."
Turns out Kalshi left out a bunch of details in its press release on new limits for 18-20 year olds:
Users on the app can adjust, remove or skip deposit limits by checking a box saying they understand the risks of using the app.
So much for consumer protection
A bipartisan pair of Senators from the Banking Committee are probing Kalshi and Polymarket for concerns around "insider trading, market manipulation, and wagers based on material nonpublic information."
This comes as the two companies are already being investigated by the House Oversight Committee for concerns related to insider trading. @SenWarren @SenJohnCurtis
A 24-year-old told Bloomberg he lost $5,000 on prediction markets. He said "you'll think it's easy money… and then it just goes down from there."
Not hard to see where this 24-year-old got the idea.
Kalshi literally pays its content creators to post things like "Earn free money with your opinion by trading with Kalshi"
🚨In a new interview, Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara confirms 75% of people lose money on Kalshi.
This is even higher than the two-thirds number Kalshi reported in July.
Luana defended the number by comparing Kalshi losses to day trading: "It’s never quoted next to how many people lose money day trading."
🚨 Kalshi's CEO: "What sets them apart is who's on the other side."
Let's talk about who's really trading on the other side of your bet on Kalshi:
- Kalshi Trading LLC, Kalshi's own affiliate market maker and
- Kalshi partners like Susquehanna International Group, which trades billions of dollars on Kalshi
Neither appears in his new op-ed. Why doesn’t the public get the truth?
Throwback to when Kalshi’s CEO was pressed on whether it’s OK for Super Bowl halftime performers to share what they know beforehand.
Since then, The House Oversight Committee opened an insider trading investigation into Kalshi. Last month, Chairman Comer announced he will expand the investigation.
FairPredicts retweeted
"Do it and you catch a lifetime ban from Kalshi." That's not accurate. Yes, Santos got a lifetime ban. But Kalshi gave 3-year suspensions to six political candidates who bet on their own races. And to the WH teleprompter operator who unlawfully bet on Trump mention markets.
FairPredicts retweeted
Kalshi told federal regulators it's putting up betting markets on the admissions rate at top colleges, including @Princeton, @Stanford, @Penn, @DukeU, @UCLA, @WashU and others. This creates new insider trading risks at all these schools. (h/t @DustinGouker)
UPDATE: Kalshi's paid partners are still posting about "Free" Money on Kalshi.
This comes weeks after the CFTC announced it is conducting a sweep of incentive programs that use misleading promotions such as "risk-free" trades.
🚨 JUST IN: A polling firm that inserted itself into major polling aggregators such as the New York Times and VoteHub admits its numbers were MADE UP. Now, prediction market traders say they found its account insider trading on Kalshi!
Yesterday, Wedgewood Polls published a statement admitting most of its data was fabricated. One poll had the Mississippi Senate race nearly "tied," and headlines followed.
Overnight, serious prediction market traders alleged they'd traced the operation to a Kalshi account with elections as its top category.
If true, someone was creating the polls that moved election coverage while trading on elections.
Why didn’t Kalshi surveillance catch this?
So I found Wedgewood’s Kalshi account. He goes by Andrew and has been insider trading using the fake polls that he was posting. @Kalshi @KalshiSupport do something about this
FACT: Kalshi owns Kalshi Trading LLC, a Kalshi affiliate market maker that, per Kalshi’s own filings, was "established as a profit-making enterprise" to support liquidity through spread trading.
So yes, Kalshi’s affiliate trades on the other side of your bets.
KalshiLies.com
“We operate like a stock market, like a financial exchange. We don't trade against our users,” @Kalshi cofounder @luanalopeslara said at #FortuneMPW, contrasting Kalshi with traditional sports betting. bit.ly/4hIX9d1
Literally an hour ago one of their paid influencers posted and offered "FREE $55 ON KALSHI".
No wonder why the CFTC has been "frustrated" with Kalshi.
I'm told Kalshi, Polymarket, Rothera, Novig, and other prediction-market platforms received a CFTC letter last night seeking info on incentive programs by close of business Oct. 28.
ICYMI, Sept. 29 @FOS scoop stating that exactly this would happen:
frontofficesports.com/articl…
This is concerning:
"Unlike election outcomes, all of these political questions have knowable answers. Campaign staff and speechwriters are surely in the loop. And it’s now easier than ever to cash in on insider information through the massive expansion of prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where people can bet on real-life events."
There's no smoking gun, but researchers found dozens of possibly correlated Kalshi trades on longshot bets predicting Graham Platner’s withdrawal, placed hours before the rape accusation became public. One operative called it "a really poorly kept secret" cnn.com/2026/10/09/politics/…
