Prediction markets are growing fast. The companies behind them should be growing responsibly. We're watching.
Joined May 2026
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FairPredicts retweeted
🚨 Kalshi CEO caught lying AGAIN.
On Ben Shapiro’s podcast, CEO Tarek Mansour said calling Kalshi a “truth machine” was a “mistake” they made “a few years ago.”
We checked the record.
Tarek called Kalshi a "truth machine" in an interview LAST WEEK.
Watch👇
FairPredicts retweeted
Polymarket was forced to halt trading on its international platform Thursday for nearly an hour because of what it said was a third-party compromise.
There were also unconfirmed reports from users on Polymarket’s Discord channel who said their wallets had been drained. nbcnews.com/business/consume…
FairPredicts retweeted
At least $2.6 million in user funds was drained from Polymarket accounts on Thursday after hackers exploited an engineering flaw in the prediction market’s website. on.wsj.com/4yLxB43
FairPredicts retweeted
🚨In a new interview, Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara confirms 75% of people lose money on Kalshi.
This is even higher than the two-thirds number Kalshi reported in July.
Luana defended the number by comparing Kalshi losses to day trading: "It’s never quoted next to how many people lose money day trading."
FairPredicts retweeted
"Do it and you catch a lifetime ban from Kalshi." That's not accurate. Yes, Santos got a lifetime ban. But Kalshi gave 3-year suspensions to six political candidates who bet on their own races. And to the WH teleprompter operator who unlawfully bet on Trump mention markets.
FairPredicts retweeted
Kalshi told federal regulators it's putting up betting markets on the admissions rate at top colleges, including @Princeton, @Stanford, @Penn, @DukeU, @UCLA, @WashU and others. This creates new insider trading risks at all these schools. (h/t @DustinGouker)
FairPredicts retweeted
Imagine if Budweiser donated to Alcoholics Anonymous under the condition that AA begin programs that promote drinking in moderation. That's basically what Kalshi appears to have done with the nation's leading problem gambling help group
FairPredicts retweeted
NBA commissioner says league wants access to prediction market data to detect manipulation cnbc.com/2026/10/09/nba-comm…
FairPredicts retweeted
There's no smoking gun, but researchers found dozens of possibly correlated Kalshi trades on longshot bets predicting Graham Platner’s withdrawal, placed hours before the rape accusation became public. One operative called it "a really poorly kept secret" cnn.com/2026/10/09/politics/…
FairPredicts retweeted
🚨 After months of telling the public "we are not the house", Kalshi is fighting to maintain its ability to trade on the other side of your bets through its market maker: Kalshi Trading LLC.
In a new filing with federal regulators, Kalshi admits the setup creates potential "risks". Their proposed fix:
-- A "cap" on its own trading desk that would have allowed ~$2.3 BILLION in trades in September alone.
-- Pushing back on a rule that would make Kalshi Trading LLC wait behind outside traders at the same price.
If Kalshi isn’t the house, why are they fighting to keep it?
FairPredicts retweeted
House Democrat targets candidate prediction market trades after opponent’s Kalshi penalty cnbc.com/2026/10/05/don-davi…
FairPredicts retweeted
the CFTC will crack down on Kalshi/Polymarket volume fraud this week
they will target "platforms that offer incentives for traders and market makers" that could least to wash trading.
that's exactly what both Kalshi and Polymarket got busted for last week (see @beniduboss and @TheFatMbappe work on this)
The programs in its sights include:
- deposit / signup bonuses
- "risk-free" trades (downside refund)
- unlimited rebates
- trading and liquidity incentives (curious how it affect Polymarket LP rewards)
now we know why Kalshi scrambled to withdraw their "volume incentive" program (subsidized wash trading) last week.
they knew they were in the crosshairs
PMs need to clean up their act. They can't lose the support of the CFTC just when Kalshi is about to face it's Supreme Court case against the sportsbooks lobby
FairPredicts retweeted
A wild @AidenReiter scoop.
The CFTC is investigating @AdamKinzinger for @Kalshi trading tied to his pardon by Biden.
Kinzinger tells us he made the trades after leaving office and they were in accordance with Kalshi’s rules, making him $823.
politico.com/news/2026/09/29…
FairPredicts retweeted
Promised my editor I will start posting my stories on the right day. Exclusive:
politico.com/news/2026/09/29…
FairPredicts retweeted
SCOOP: The CFTC is conducting a sweep of incentive programs offered by prediction-market platforms over concerns that some are using misleading promotions to attract traders, @FOS has learned.
An “action” of some kind is expected by the end of this week.
frontofficesports.com/articl…
FairPredicts retweeted
i guess kalshi saw this and thought they should steal my video, turn me into a white dude, and run it as an ad
FairPredicts retweeted
OK, this is wild: I’ve confirmed that this video — that used AI to change the race of the creator below then turned it into a Kalshi ad — is real.
A Kalshi rep says the ad is old and that they no longer use AI-generated ads.
Kalshi is also “reviewing our relationship with” with the agency that made it.
Unclear right now what agency was behind this, what methods they used and exactly how many people were AI-manipulated to be another identity so synthetic versions of themselves could become Kalshi promoters without their knowledge and consent, but I’m looking into it.
FairPredicts retweeted
Fraudsters flooded Polymarket with stolen debit cards. The CEO’s response shocked some employees, showing how the betting app valued growth at all costs. on.wsj.com/4yUmWEV
