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nano cap, distressed, hong kong, arb unwinds

Joined August 2013
Photo by First Crown Research🇺🇸 (@First_Crown)Photo by First Crown Research🇺🇸 (@First_Crown)Photo by First Crown Research🇺🇸 (@First_Crown)Photo by First Crown Research🇺🇸 (@First_Crown)Photo by First Crown Research🇺🇸 (@First_Crown)Photo by First Crown Research🇺🇸 (@First_Crown)Photo by First Crown Research🇺🇸 (@First_Crown)Photo by First Crown Research🇺🇸 (@First_Crown)Photo by First Crown Research🇺🇸 (@First_Crown)
First Crown Research🇺🇸 retweeted
Accelerating the spend $META
Replying to @DynamicMoats
$META Zuck is not cutting, he’ll accelerate, risk of not taking enough risk is too high
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First Crown Research🇺🇸 retweeted
You have noticed it. ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer. The internet itself feels like it is shrinking. Every article reads the same. Every email sounds the same. Every answer sounds like it was written by the same voice. You thought it was you. It is not you. Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge published a paper in Nature proving what is happening. They call it Model Collapse. Here is the mechanism in one sentence. AI trained on AI-generated data gets dumber every generation until it forgets what real human data looked like. The internet is filling with AI-generated content. Blog posts. Articles. Reviews. Comments. Social media. AI companies scrape the internet to train the next generation of models. Which means the next generation of AI is being trained on the output of the current generation. Each cycle loses information. Not randomly. It loses the rarest, most unusual, most creative parts first. The researchers call these the "tails of the distribution." The weird ideas. The unexpected perspectives. The things that made the internet feel human. Those disappear first. What remains is the average. The safe. The expected. The bland. Then the next generation trains on that. And loses more. And the next generation trains on that. And loses more. The researchers proved this is not a slow decline. Major degradation happens within just a few iterations. Even when some of the original human data is preserved. They tested it on large language models. On image generators. On statistical models. The pattern was the same every time. The output converges toward a narrow, flattened version of reality that looks nothing like the original data. The lead researcher put it plainly. "Large language models are like fire. A useful tool. But one that pollutes the environment." The pollution is invisible. You cannot see which sentence on the internet was written by a human and which was written by AI. Neither can the AI that is about to train on it. And once the tails are gone, they do not come back. The damage is irreversible. This is not a prediction anymore. It is a diagnosis. The internet you grew up on was built by humans writing things no algorithm would have written. Strange, personal, imperfect, alive. That internet is being diluted. One generation of AI at a time. And the models trained on what remains are learning a smaller and smaller version of the world. Model Collapse is not a technical problem. It is a cultural one. The thing that made the internet worth reading is the thing that disappears first.
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First Crown Research🇺🇸 retweeted
$STAA Short Squeeze Incoming? The short thesis was built around collapsing fundamentals, slowing growth, deteriorating margins and the collapse of ICL sales in China. After today’s earnings, that thesis looks materially weaker and China trends now appear to be reaccelerating, while many shorts are sitting on losses approaching ~100% in barely 2 months. Now they have to decide: Do they continue pressing the short all the way back toward ~$50+ levels where the stock traded a couple of years ago when the outlook was objectively worse? Or do they start covering? The problem is this trade is starting to resemble Hotel California: “You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.” I believe the real tradable float is probably below ~25M shares, maybe materially lower. Here’s how I get there: Broadwood owns ~15.4M shares and already refused to sell at $31. Yunqi owns ~3.2M shares and blocked the deal too. Point72 just established a ~2.6M share position. Madison Ave just bought/owns ~2.85M shares. Together these four entities alone control ~24M shares, nearly ~48% of the company. I would not expect any of them to be meaningful sellers anywhere near current prices. And there are probably several more strong hands not included in this calculation. Against that backdrop, ~6.7M shares remain short, roughly ~27% of float, with approximately ~12 days to cover. That is an extremely crowded short against a highly concentrated shareholder base with very limited natural liquidity. If shorts begin competing for exits simultaneously, the move higher could become extremely violent.
𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗔𝗥 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗮 𝗰𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗰 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗽, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗱 $17.40 stock price | ~$187M cash | Enterprise value ~$700–725M STAAR Surgical ( $STAA ) today sits in an uncomfortable place in the market, which is often where the more interesting opportunities begin. The company is small, with a market capitalization of roughly $850 million and an enterprise value closer to $700 million once you account for its ~$187 million in cash and no debt. It operates in the shadow of much larger players like Alcon ( $ALC ), Johnson & Johnson ( $JNJ ), and Bausch + Lomb ( $BLCO ), yet it occupies a part of the market those players do not fully control. STAAR’s business is simple to describe and difficult to replicate. It implants a lens inside the eye to correct vision, rather than reshaping the cornea like LASIK. The procedure is particularly effective for myopia, or nearsightedness, a condition where distant objects appear blurry because the eye focuses images incorrectly. Myopia is rising globally, especially in Asia, which is one reason the category has grown so quickly. The company’s approach has clear advantages in certain cases. It is reversible, it preserves the cornea, and it often delivers better outcomes for patients with moderate to severe myopia who are not ideal candidates for LASIK. It also requires surgeon training, regulatory approvals, and years of accumulated experience, which together create a real, if not absolute, moat. For years, the story worked. Growth was strong, margins were high, and China became the engine. Then the company ran into a classic problem, not of demand disappearing but of inventory building up in the channel. Management stopped shipments to reset the system, and reported sales collapsed, especially in China. The market treated that as a broken story rather than a reset. The stock followed, falling to around $17.40. At the same time, strategic interest emerged. About a year and a half ago, there were credible discussions around a sale above $50 per share. More recently, Alcon ( $ALC ) made a firm cash offer that was ultimately raised to about $30.75 per share. That deal failed. Broadwood Partners, the largest shareholder and a holder for more than 15 years, blocked it. They argued the process was poorly timed and did not reflect the true value of the business. They were also critical of how the go-shop was conducted, describing it as rushed and restrictive, limiting the ability of other bidders to properly engage and complete due diligence. Broadwood’s position is not that the company should never be sold. It is that it should not be sold here. They have indicated they would be open to a transaction, but only after the business stabilizes and reflects normalized performance. They had no interest in selling at around $30 in the middle of a downturn. From their perspective, that would have meant selling a unique asset at a cyclical low. They continue to believe the company is worth significantly more. That leaves the stock in a familiar contrarian position. A differentiated business, a real moat, a strong balance sheet, and a product still being adopted globally, but a narrative dominated by one disrupted geography. The question is no longer what STAAR does. The question is whether China was a temporary reset or a permanent peak. Broadwood is clearly betting the house on the answer. They knew rejecting a $30.75 offer would likely send the stock lower, and it did, yet they still blocked the deal. The position represents roughly 20% of their fund, implying unusually high conviction. Either way, this is not a short-term situation. The setup may be contrarian, but the resolution will take time, so no rush to buy.
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First Crown Research🇺🇸 retweeted
I had a couple people ask me what I consider a win: nothing. I consider it a win if nothing happens between Xi and Trump and no deals are struck. Follow me. As the great international relations scholar Seinfeld noted, anyone can make a deal, holding the deal is the hard part. Well we know that there is no trade deal with China worth striking. It's pointless. Why waste the time? Then, the United States and US supply chains of all kinds are making great progress to get out of China. Business needs certainty that we aren't going to try and be friends with China again but they can move production. This is a big long project, not one that will be finished even before Trump leaves office. Don't open the door to doubt but give them a reason to keep moving US linked trade and supply chains. The short version is I am much happier continuing to fight than trying to place nice for something we both is know worthless. All this said I fully expect some deals to be announced, so to me the key is what deals are announced. The smaller the narrower the better. Boeing sells some planes, shrug not that big a deal, we lower tariffs on t-shirts, shrug. I am much happier with no deal rather than a deal just to announce a deal. Let's look at the deals that are announced and see what that tells us
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First Crown Research🇺🇸 retweeted
🚨 NEW: A UK immigration officer has been found guilty of working for China Chi Leung "Peter" Wai, 38, used his access to the main immigration database to track Hong Kong dissidents based in the UK
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First Crown Research🇺🇸 retweeted
Anyone that believes consumers would get skidish after $5/gas prices should look at DoorDash and Uber Eats reports. These businesses exist because of consumer disposable income. If the consumer was going to be crushed by higher gas prices, we would see it in food and grocery delivery. The average consumer spends $130 per month on food delivery and $300 per month on grocery, with 30-50% of the average ticket in mark up and fees. $60-70/month in higher gas prices is not going to scare off consumers.
BREAKING: DoorDash stock, $DASH, surges over +15% after reporting +33% year-over-year revenue growth and strong guidance.
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First Crown Research🇺🇸 retweeted
Markets blowing up. As usual lots of interesting stuff. Will just drop a cpl notes. I expect a few more days of pain before TACO big time, this isn’t a firmly held view but it’s unlikely Trump can just sit and endure $110 oil for more than a week. In any case I think these prob work regardless…
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First Crown Research🇺🇸 retweeted
The data center buildout has allowed Loudoun County to lower property tax rates by 38% since 2010, translating to average savings of about $3,400 per year for homeowners.
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First Crown Research🇺🇸 retweeted
CoreWeave moved their ER from the usual mid-month slot to Feb 26, the day after Nvidia’s earnings today. What’s the arrangement between Intrator and Jensen? The coordination here is too perfect to be a coincidence.
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First Crown Research🇺🇸 retweeted
The way the wheels are coming off the car in the equities of private credit managers, (and the investors who hold them - look at LNC today), public credit looks absurdly rich. This might surprise, but Saba Capital is long stock in BX, ARES, APOL, and also OWL! We sold down a lot of CDX HY at the same time. Something has to give… see below from my sage partner Kieran.
I have many biases based on my experiences. So I fully admit that I am structurally bearish on credit priced at par. That view comes from having a front row seat of the GFC. In 2008, liquidity didn’t “fade.” It vanished. Spreads didn’t drift. They gapped. When you’ve seen how close the system came to breaking, you stop treating par as safety. You start treating it as volatility in hiding. Post-GFC: • Banks pulled back • Regulators discouraged >6x EBITDA lending (2013 guidance) • PE rebounded Leverage didn’t go away. It just moved off bank balance sheets. Risk migrated. Capital followed. Discipline didn’t always keep up. In PE, Fund II requires exits. In private credit, “no defaults” was often enough. Loans marked at par. Spreads tight. AUM compounding. Then came evergreen funds. Illiquid loans. Quarterly NAV. Periodic liquidity. We told ourselves this was product innovation. In reality, it’s duration mismatch wrapped in yield. Private wealth flows are pro-cyclical. They love income when volatility is low. They demand liquidity when volatility spikes. And when spreads widen, investors don’t debate underwriting nuance. They ask: “Should I stay or should I go?” If they go: • Gates get tested • Marks get tested • Conviction gets tested Credit is correlated in stress. You don’t lauded for being “slightly better” when the whole asset class reprices. Add in: • Sponsor relationships that are serial • Competitive underwriting drift • Internal marks • Public GPs optimizing fee growth In good times, these are features. In bad times, they’re pressure points. To be clear: I don’t think private credit is bad. The best managers — real underwriters, real restructurers, firms with true trading DNA — will likely gain share in the cleanup. Dislocations create opportunity. But today’s scale + liquidity promises + behavioral flows have never been stress-tested together. Private credit hasn’t faced a true systemic liquidity shock at this size. And when the cycle turns: “If I go there will be trouble… And if I stay it will be double.”
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First Crown Research🇺🇸 retweeted
West Virginia’s coal fired power plants are saving the eastern electric grid this morning
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-193.5K for CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions 🤷‍♂️ stay safe out there everyone #UNG
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First Crown Research🇺🇸 retweeted
AI glasses can now recognize anyone, anywhere. A Dutch journalist just tested a pair of AI-powered glasses that can instantly identify strangers on the street.
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first time ever seeing a single word under Purpose of Transaction 🤣
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$NBY absolutely insane at $20. Never would've held for the ride up even without the honeymoon
On my honeymoon in Hawaii right now so probably shouldnt be looking at this but wow didnt expect $4.20 at all $NBY
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