Which offensive archetypes actually outperform their contracts? This is according to courtsketch's "surplus cap value" which is the gap between what the player's play was worth and what they were actually paid 1. Complementary bigs might be the league's best value prop - Stretch bigs have the highest median surplus cap value (roughly +2.5%), with roll + cut bigs also positive (roughly +1%) - Despite their different offensive responsibilities, both archetypes outperform their contracts. Teams are finding efficient value in bigs who provide spacing, finishing and defensive utility 2. Shot creation carries the biggest financial risk and naturally the biggest upside - Shot creators have a negative median surplus here (roughly -1.5%) - More importantly, look at that spread! Their surplus ranges from approximately -29% to +33% of the cap which is an insane distribution - That doesn't mean shot creation is overvalued across the board. It means the financial outcomes associated with this archetype vary enormously. High end creators can justify substantial investment and are usually the best players itl, while others deliver considerably less value than their contracts imply and it tanks their orgs 3. Primary ball handlers are a middle ground - Their median surplus is slightly positive, but their distribution is extremely wide - Some provide tremendous value above their salaries, while others fall substantially short - What's particularly interesting is that their median production value was around 6% of the cap, considerably lower than shot creators which raises an intriguing question about whether the market is pricing primary initiation differently from individual shot creation 4. Movement shooters look like relatively dependable investments - Movement shooters have a median surplus near zero, with a relatively balanced distribution around it - Compare that with off screen shooters, whose distribution skews more negative - I feel like this suggests that the broader movement shooter archetype may be priced fairly consistently, while the more specialized off screen category has a wider range of contract outcomes any other standouts?

Felt like randomly comparing Chet vs Myles with the tool. Both provide rim protection on one end while giving their offenses a floor spacing 5 on the other. Both guys took extremely high quality looks last year but were really, really good at making them (especially Myles who had an awesome shooting season) And despite playing in very different systems, their 3 pt shot diets are remarkably similar. About 2/3rd of their attempts come from spacing and roll man actions But there's an interesting difference in how they convert those opportunities: - Myles is at 36%. The difference is he was more effective on relocation 3s, an insane 49% last year!! (first clip) - Chet was 42.3% on roll man 3s, which was over 7% above the big man sample (second clip) A neat illustration of how two centers can occupy similar offensive roles but find their shooting success in different actions