Explorer / Linguist "All I know is that I don't know. All I know is that I don't know nothin'. "
Joined December 2024
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Has anyone modeled stock markets in 3 dimensions with the 3rd dimension (depth) being volume?
I've often thought it would be more akin to the natural world and how plants grow through soil. They extend out in spirals more or less based on soil density choosing the path of least resistance.
The volume measurement of stocks is essentially the same thing as soil density.
Gjöf retweeted
A reminder:
If gold miners were a single sector, they would have the cleanest balance sheets, the strongest profit margins, and the most attractive valuations in the market today.
tavicosta.substack.com/p/top…
Gjöf retweeted
Many of the things that make a country rich are invisible.
You can’t see or touch property rights, the rule of law or the ease of doing business. That makes them easy to overlook.
People talk about natural resources, but pay much less attention to whether ordinary people can start and run businesses without facing senseless rules and regulations.
People are much more willing to invest when their property is protected and the same rules apply to everyone, including politicians.
If you’re afraid an official could take your land or shut down your business, you’re going to think twice before risking your savings.
A country can have plenty of natural resources and still make it hard for its people to prosper.
Gjöf retweeted
Brazil appears to be the latest demonstration of the super obvious fact that commies cheat like motherfuckers.
Gjöf retweeted
I am 100% certain that people saying backwardation in crude oil markets is bearish because prices are lower at the the long end, are not reading the market correctly.
Backwardation is bullish. (you buy the long end expecting prices to move higher over time)
In addition, the Dec 2027 contract has moved up over $10 in just a month, thats not bearish. The curve is repricing.
Gjöf retweeted
It is striking. Almost any way I slice it, across 982 S&P 500 record closes since 1980, including the 10 record tops that preceded bear or near-bear markets, October 6, 2026 stands head to head with March 2000 as the two most narrow, thin, soft new highs
Gjöf retweeted
Newmont’s realized gold price, three quarters in a row:
Q1: $4,900
Q2: $4,414
Q3: $4,317
Free cash flow over the same stretch:
Q1: $3.14 billion
Q2: $2.21 billion
Q3: $1.91 billion
The price is down 12%. Free cash flow is down 39%.
That’s operating leverage in reverse. Q3 also carried a $565 million working-capital outflow and higher capital spending.
The offset: Newmont lowered its full-year cost guidance to about $1,520 an ounce, from $1,680.
$NEM
Gjöf retweeted
Actions speak louder than words.
Hitler opposed Marxism, not state control of the economy. He abolished independent unions, suppressed economic freedom, subordinated private property to state dictates, and imposed central planning in pursuit of nationalist goals.
That he wanted to exterminate rival socialists doesn't make him a capitalist any more than Stalin's persecution of Trotskyists made Stalin an advocate of free enterprise.
Nazism and Marxism were competing forms of collectivist authoritarianism, not opposites on the fundamental question of individual liberty.
The relevant distinction isn't which collectivists hated which other collectivists. It's whether individuals are free or subordinate to the state.
Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, Volume I, Chapter IV (“Munich”):
“The problem of how the future of the German nation can be secured is the problem of how Marxism can be exterminated.”
Let’s be clear: Elon Musk absolutely knows the history. He knows Hitler’s stated goal was to destroy Marxism. Pointing to “Socialist” in the party’s name to call Hitler far-left isn’t a mistake. It’s a calculated lie designed to gaslight gullible people who believe every word he says.
Gjöf retweeted
Rather than turning mercury into tiny amounts of gold at an absurd cost, maybe we should develop technology that turns politicians into people who can balance a fiscal budget.
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
Gjöf retweeted
The 1-month silver lease rate is at its highest level in two months!
In a market where paper silver is many times larger than physical silver, a deleveraging event like today will push the price lower. But this is temporary. Otherwise, the lease rate would be crashing too.
Gjöf retweeted
I downloaded and plotted hourly data for approximately 100 years for many different tide gauges. Every hour is incorporated in these graphs.
The trend is essentially linear for every single one. No cherry-picking.
We are coming out of an ice age. Thus many stations show a few millimeters per year of increasing sea level and some show a few millimeters per year of decreasing sea level because ice is retreating and the continents are uplifting near polar regions.
As far as I can tell there is no sea-level catastrophe and those who say so don't have data to back it up: That is, they are scamming.
Gjöf retweeted
My friends Anthropic/OAI have about >$800bn in commitments to keep the AI “fire” going, contingent on IPOs /debt offering - what looks to be in double digits % yield
Recall, the 2008 US housing bailout was of a similar size
This is a debt/raise number similar to 2% of US GDP
Gjöf retweeted
WOW...
CCC grade junk bonds continue to accelerate.
The market now wants 12.78% p.a. to lend to these businesses.
We are close now to surpassing the peaks of 2022 during the last inflation crisis.
