Commodities Investor. Very Long Oil and Coal. 60% Commodities, 20% Special Sits and 20% Short Garbage. *Not Investment Advice* Now kind of a Bitcoin douche!
SW Florida
Joined April 2022
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Commodities MacGruber retweeted
I don’t think we need two factor authorization to sign up for the Jersey Mike’s reward program. I think we can play that one a little loose.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Iran Signals Rare Flexibility Toward US In Talks With Mecca Pact Representatives zerohedge.com/geopolitical/m…
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
I've been on an endless loop:
Almost none of these people will file for an 'unemployment claim' & show up in the U/E stats
Economists on here + far & wide will study that U/E # CLOSELY & explain to us that the job market is IN BALANCE & HEALTHY
But alas, it's the worst WC job
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
2025 job growth was revised from 1.2 million to 116,000.
A 90% haircut.
2024 got cut 44% too.
I said on Sunday that hiring is what's stalling. Turns out it stalled a lot earlier than anyone reported.
And this is us payroll- this is why I don’t trust the numbers that come out. I’m already seeing the real deal quarters before the revisions. Data is beautiful.
2026…. well I think we all know how this is going.
The ‘headline’ numbers don’t tell the full story. The info I hear from the executives I work with. I hear the true insights- h*ll, I help them figure out what to do next career wise and sometimes just advise on the company growth... So I know what is really happening, and these numbers- DAMN.
When you look at the composition of job gains—what industries are they in? How many are temporary or part-time roles? Are we seeing growth in strategic positions that indicate long-term stability, or just seasonal hiring to bolster short-term metrics?
This is where executives need to pay attention. This is what I help executives with. Growth on paper doesn’t always translate to a stronger bottom line.
I’d argue it’s not just about employment numbers but about the quality of those roles. If the job market shifts too much towards low-skill positions, it can signal underlying issues in economic health and corporate investment trends.
#leadership #consulting #jobsreport #labormarket #Employment
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
SAUDI ARABIA REPORTEDLY OFFERS HOUTHIS $1 BLN IN IRAN-BROKERED DEAL TO HALT ATTACKS – ISRAEL HAYOM
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Remember the recent US meeting with Russia.
On top of todays meeting with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey.
Things are moving.
No attack these past 2 weekends despite strong and weird insider looking flows. This weekend Benjamin is being denied attacks by his military while elections turn against him.
Things are being put in place that don't make sense if you were to attack.
If the US was about to attack and help the Saudis in regards to the Houthis, why would they offer $1b today?
If the US was about to attack, why wouldn't they do so in front of midterms to make it look like the nuclear threat is neutralized? Why not do it to help Benjamin?
A lot of things are happening and almost none look like actual escalation.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
$MSFT offers 60,000 employees a voluntary exit.
60K Y’all!!
First time this has ever been offered at Microsoft and it will affect employees in India, The United States, Canada, and the UK at level 70 or below…
Employees find out in a few hours if they are being targeted for this.
This just makes me think that H127 layoffs sound intense. Is this a pre-layoff round?
Also makes me wonder if they changed some scheduled layoffs due to be called out by @VP. Peace offering? 🤔 Timing is just interesting.
More to come.
$MSFT Microsoft's job cuts aren't done, and Xbox is where to watch next.
Asha Sharma is reportedly planning three more rounds: this month, November and January. 1,868 jobs are gone against a 3,200 target, so roughly 1,300 more are coming.
Spreading cuts across a whole year is a choice. It keeps the margin story moving and leaves everyone who's left waiting. I'm watching for the October round.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
AI is shrinking the need for middle management
I am seeing it with my own eyes. I’m hearing it from others. And you can see it in the layoff numbers
If you’re in middle management, go figure out how to be closer to the work. And get more technical. Fast
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
The point of no return by Richard von Mises is worth reading:
"A state becomes almost unreformable when the majority of the population is financially or structurally dependent on the state (state employees, civil servants, recipients of subsidies, grants, or transfer payments, etc.). As soon as those who net benefit from or are supported by the state outnumber those who do not, the system blocks reforms, since the majority votes out of self-interest for the preservation or expansion of state services."
Does this sound familiar? Some European countries, France, Belgium, Finland are already way beyond that point, closely followed by Germany, Spain, Austria and Italy. It works for a while, as long as markets buy more sovereign debt at reasonable interest rates. The party ends when they stop though. For France, they stopped this month, Belgium will be next.
The longer the socialist illusion persists, the more painful the inevitable cuts and adjustments will be. It’s pure arithmetic. Good luck Europe, good luck Euro. Buckle up, it won’t be pretty.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
a very simple solution to virtually every problem would be to stop allowing people who live off taxpayer money to vote
anyone whose entire livelihood depends on the government taking money from other people will always vote for a government that takes more money
we’ve built a system where people can literally vote to give themselves more of other people’s money
the conflict of interest is beyond ridiculous and if you remove the incentive you remove the problem
The point of no return by Richard von Mises is worth reading:
"A state becomes almost unreformable when the majority of the population is financially or structurally dependent on the state (state employees, civil servants, recipients of subsidies, grants, or transfer payments, etc.). As soon as those who net benefit from or are supported by the state outnumber those who do not, the system blocks reforms, since the majority votes out of self-interest for the preservation or expansion of state services."
Does this sound familiar? Some European countries, France, Belgium, Finland are already way beyond that point, closely followed by Germany, Spain, Austria and Italy. It works for a while, as long as markets buy more sovereign debt at reasonable interest rates. The party ends when they stop though. For France, they stopped this month, Belgium will be next.
The longer the socialist illusion persists, the more painful the inevitable cuts and adjustments will be. It’s pure arithmetic. Good luck Europe, good luck Euro. Buckle up, it won’t be pretty.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Bring on your dirtiest Canadian jr mining shit-cos!! It’s suddenly a bull mkt in BC🇨🇦
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
We determined that $MRNA covid vaccines were in fact correlated with myocarditis risk…That was a 2 vaccine series. 1 antigen. 0.05mg each dose.
Intismeran is a 9 vaccine series, up to 34 antigens, and a *1mg* dose each. 90x higher total dose in the series.
We are totally sure there is nothing to see here safety wise? Hmmm
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
An interesting interview with Fadahossein Maleki, a member of Iran’s Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, published by Tabnak, offers some insights into the diplomatic efforts currently underway.
- Russia, Qatar and Pakistan are reportedly working through parallel diplomatic channels to bring Iran back to the negotiating table and prevent another regional war.
- Russia: According to Maleki, Lavrov conveyed to Tehran the contents of a message from Putin to Trump supporting a return to the Islamabad Memorandum. However, Maleki also expressed some distrust of Moscow, particularly in light of recent Russian-American contacts.
- Strait of Hormuz: Perhaps the most interesting revelation concerns a Russian proposal for a new arrangement involving Iran, Russia and China in the management of the Strait. The idea could be discussed at foreign minister and head-of-state level. Maleki did not reject the proposal outright but insisted that Iran must retain the central role in managing Hormuz, without sharing its leadership.
- Qatar: Doha has also presented proposals aimed at restarting negotiations, largely driven by concerns that another war could directly affect the Gulf states.
Iran’s conditions: Maleki argues that Washington must first return to the Islamabad Memorandum and implement its provisions, including those concerning US military withdrawal and the release of frozen Iranian assets, before Tehran considers negotiations on other issues.
Two points stand out to me.
- First, despite growing speculation about renewed military confrontation, diplomatic exchanges appear to be continuing through several channels.
- Second, Moscow seems interested in turning Hormuz into a broader diplomatic arrangement involving China. Tehran, however, appears reluctant to share control over what has become one of its most important strategic bargaining chips.
- Maleki is an influential parliamentarian, but his remarks should not necessarily be interpreted as reflecting decisions already taken by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
- Still, the reported Russian proposal deserves attention. It may reveal an emerging difference between Tehran and its two major partners over how the Hormuz crisis should ultimately be resolved.
#Iran #Russia #China #Qatar #Pakistan
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
QATAR MEDIATES IN IRAN AS U.S. SEEKS TO EASE TENSIONS
Qatari mediators are in Tehran as part of a diplomatic effort coordinated with the United States to de-escalate regional tensions, Reuters reports.
The initiative comes amid heightened concerns over renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Terrible news from Gabon. Borr Drilling’s Prospector 5 jackup rig sank during jacking operations, with five people still unaccounted for and search and rescue operations ongoing.
Hoping for the best possible outcome for those missing and their families.🙏🏻
$BORR
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
People don't realize how much economic activity disappears when nobody buys houses.
No sale.
No mortgage.
No title closing.
No moving company.
Less spending on furniture, appliances, renovations, and repairs.
A housing slowdown doesn't stay inside the housing market.
It spreads through the economy.
And transaction volume is where the damage shows up first.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
If JetBlue goes bankrupt, I would have to believe this would be the first time in history that the DOJ blocked a merger of two companies and then both went bankrupt. Great process. xitter.cf/Investingcom/status/21…
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Investors are betting on more upside in US Treasuries.
The extra cost investors are willing to pay for call options on longer-dated Treasuries relative to puts is up to ~50 basis points, the highest since March 2025.
This marks a sharp reversal from a 250-basis-point premium for puts over calls in late September.
This suggests investors are increasingly betting on further gains in Treasury prices.
Furthermore, one options trade is targeting a drop in the 10Y Note Yield to ~4.60% within a month, involving ~65,000 contracts and costing ~$7 million in premium.
This comes as the 10Y Note Yield has declined below 5.00% for the first time since September 23rd, now down -40 basis points from the October 7th peak.
The bond market is seeing massive swings in price and sentiment.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Hedge funds are getting absolutely crushed right now and it helps explain why the stock market has been behaving so irrationally lately.
According to Goldman Sachs, global hedge funds just experienced one of their broadest daily declines since COVID. Fundamental long/short funds lost 1.4% on Thursday, while funds focused on technology, media, and telecommunications fell an average of 2.7%. More than two thirds of hedge funds finished the day in the red. Now, these numbers might not seem that significant compared to what we're seeing in individual stocks, but remember, hedge funds are supposed to manage risk. Many of these funds are designed to make money whether the market goes up or down, yet they're getting hit on both sides of their trades.
So here's what's happening. Most hedge funds own stocks they believe will go higher while simultaneously betting against stocks they expect to fall. Normally, one side is supposed to help offset losses on the other. But right now, their long positions are getting crushed as technology and AI stocks sell off, while some of their short positions are moving higher, forcing them to buy back shares at a loss. And this is where things get interesting. When hedge funds start losing significant amounts of money, they're often forced to reduce their exposure to the market. That means selling positions, raising cash, and reducing leverage. The problem is that they don't necessarily sell companies with deteriorating fundamentals. They often sell whatever they can sell quickly.
This creates a situation where even companies reporting strong earnings, growing revenue, and improving fundamentals can get dragged lower simply because institutions need liquidity. We've been seeing this across semiconductors, memory, AI infrastructure, and other high growth sectors. What's even more interesting is how bearish hedge funds have become. Goldman Sachs reported that short exposure was approaching five year highs, with short selling significantly outpacing long purchases. In other words, a lot of institutional investors are positioning themselves for further declines.
But there's another side to this. When too many investors are betting on the same outcome, even a small market recovery can trigger a significant reversal. If heavily shorted stocks begin recovering, hedge funds may be forced to buy back shares to close their bearish positions. That buying pushes prices higher, potentially forcing even more funds to cover their shorts. Now, does this mean we've officially reached the bottom? Not necessarily. Forced selling can continue longer than people expect, especially when leverage is involved. But I do think it's important to understand that a lot of what we're witnessing right now isn't necessarily being driven by deteriorating company fundamentals. A significant portion could be related to hedge fund positioning, leverage, and institutions being forced to reduce risk.
There's a massive difference between a stock falling because its business is struggling and a stock falling because institutions are being forced to sell. And that's exactly why I'm paying more attention to what these companies are actually reporting than what their stock prices are doing on any given day.
This selloff is a lot closer to the bottom than we think.
According to Jefferies, over the past 10 trading days, its clients have been net sellers of more than $1B worth of technology stocks on 7 separate days. This chart tracks the buying and selling activity of Jefferies’ clients over a rolling 20 day period. When the purple line is above zero, investors are buying more than they’re selling. When it’s below zero, they’re selling more than they’re buying. Right now, that number has collapsed to approximately negative $11B, making this one of the most extreme periods of technology selling we’ve seen in the past two years.
For comparison, even during the major selloffs earlier in 2025 and 2026, the selling pressure wasn’t consistently this severe. And remember, this is just one investment bank’s trading activity. This also helps explain why companies across semiconductors, memory, power, and AI infrastructure have been getting absolutely crushed despite reporting strong earnings and continued demand. A lot of this selling isn’t necessarily happening because the fundamentals have changed. Large institutions are reducing exposure, managing risk and raising cash. When everyone starts selling at the same time, even the best companies get dragged down.
Now, does this mean the bottom is definitely here? Of course not. Nobody knows that but historically, when selling becomes this extreme, it can be a sign that we’re getting closer to exhaustion. Eventually, the forced selling slows down, buyers return, and stocks can recover. My personal view is that we’re likely getting much closer to a bottom, I’m not changing my long term outlook on AI because hedge funds and institutions are aggressively selling technology stocks. The demand for compute, memory, power, and AI infrastructure hasn’t suddenly disappeared. I’m investing with years in mind, not weeks.
