When Housing Falters and Inflation Persists, Gold Stands Strong (@LaurentMaurel_)
👉 goldbroker.com/news/housing-…
🏠 If Gold remains in a bonafide bull market, we would like to see it outperform US Median Home Prices.
Price recently spiked above the 1980 historic high before reflexively bouncing back below it. Price has since crept back to the 1980 high and is currently sitting right at resistance. The next move is extremely important.
If price can break through the 1980 high, gold should indeed experience a new powerful leg higher. Failure would mean Gold would lag US home prices going forward.
Housing May Have Bottomed, Will Gold Outperform? (@DowGoldEquals1)
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Gold’s Behavior in Various Parallel Inflation Universes
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#gold #inflation #hyperinflation #stagflation #disinflation #deflation
GoldBroker retweeted
U.S. inflation has now been above the Fed’s 2% target for 66 straight months, more than five years.
It’s only the third time in the past century that inflation has stayed above 2% for at least five years, per Bespoke Investment Group.
GoldBroker retweeted
Last week’s inflation data reinforce the same message.
We are likely in for a decade of sticky inflation.
Yet central banks will inevitably have to cut rates to keep governments’ borrowing costs manageable.
That combination could have profound implications for hard assets.
tavicosta.substack.com/p/sho…
France in Crisis: And Now the Riots! (@philippeherlin)
👉 goldbroker.com/news/france-p…
🚨 🇫🇷 France’s 10-year borrowing costs have now surpassed those of the United States for the first time since May 2013. Despite Washington running larger budget deficits, this reversal highlights growing investor concerns over the trajectory of France’s public finances.
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The French bond spread, now at 1.69 percentage points, is rapidly approaching the peak reached at the height of the Eurozone debt crisis.
So, are we in a crisis? Will France default?
The answer to the second question is no, assuming the ECB prints money and cuts interest rates when things get really ugly.
Are we in a crisis? Well, that depends.
Not the kind of turmoil we witnessed during the Eurozone debt crisis, when it was unclear whether Greece and Italy could remain in the eurozone.
Many years and countless ECB bond-buying programs later, we know governments and central banks will work together to keep things from falling apart.
Yet I would call this a bond crisis.
Because after nearly six years of negative nominal returns (and an even worse picture after inflation), we now have another painful reminder that bonds are no longer the asset class they once were.
Not only have bonds delivered negative returns, but their risk profile has also deteriorated significantly, while their diversification benefits have largely evaporated.
Bond returns have become positively correlated with equity returns. And I expect that relationship to persist for one simple reason: bonds themselves have become a risky asset.
To be clear, at current yields, bonds could certainly deliver positive returns once interest rates decline.
But that doesn't mean bonds will magically return to being a low-risk asset class offering decent positive returns and meaningful diversification.
Quite the contrary.
Pension funds and other investors abandoning French government bonds further confirm that the nature of bonds has fundamentally changed.
And when yields eventually decline, as I expect they will, won't the reason be yet another reminder that bonds need central bank support to prevent actual defaults?
I think so.
And in that environment, can you think of other asset classes that would benefit even more from that support than the bonds themselves?
We can!
That's why we build robust, long-term investment portfolios without traditional bonds, but with scarce assets such as gold.
Because governments and aging economies cannot survive their enormous debt burdens without monetary support, investors need to rethink and rebuild their portfolios.
That's why we created the Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund and the Blokland Sound Money Fund!
GoldBroker retweeted
History never repeats itself exactly, but it often rhymes. After all, haven’t we forgotten that debt crises in Athens were one of the catalysts for democracy, or that they helped precipitate the Revolution and the end of the Ancien Régime in France?
Rising Interest Rates: Is There a Risk of a Debt Crisis? (@ThomasAndrieu_)
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The global debt crisis has never been worse.
Japan now has a gross government Debt-to-GDP ratio of 204.4%, the highest among any major world economy.
Italy follows at 138.4%, while the United States stands at 125.8%, which is only below the ~132.0% record set during the 2020 pandemic.
At the same time, France’s gross government Debt-to-GDP ratio is 118.4%, while Canada’s, China’s, and the UK’s are 110.7%, 106.9%, and 103.6%, respectively.
By comparison, Germany is the only major economy below 100.0%, at 64.6%.
The current average among advanced economies is 108.2%.
The world economy is drowning in debt.
GoldBroker retweeted
Ranked: Countries That Owe the Most Money to the IMF 💰
visualcapitalist.com/countri…
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The Price of Gold Expressed in Bitcoin: Very Revealing!
👉 goldbroker.com/news/price-go…
Bitcoin and gold are increasingly moving together:
The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold prices is up to +0.50, almost matching the all-time high set during the 2020 pandemic.
This figure has more than doubled since the start of the year.
By comparison, following the 2022 bear market recovery, the 90-day correlation rose to +0.30.
The recent surge accelerated following the US Treasury announcement on August 19th that it would at least double its buybacks of long-dated government debt, from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation.
Meanwhile, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 is down to ~0.30, a 1-year low.
Investors are increasingly turning to both gold and Bitcoin as hedges against currency debasement.
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AI: The Fragility of the Markets vs. the Strength of Gold (@LaurentMaurel_)
👉 goldbroker.com/news/fragilit…
GoldBroker retweeted
At current prices, these 2,437 metric tons of gold are worth approximately 300 billion euros — less than one-tenth of the public debt, which stands at 3,536 billion euros.
Should the Bank of France’s Gold Be Used to Repay the Public Debt? (@philippeherlin)
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