Super nice bald dad. Once rode in a safe car with Ralph Nader. 🐻 ⬇️. Nerd for polls and history. Your grandma voted for Debs.🌹
Handsome Fella Island, Iowa
Joined January 2011
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Phil James retweeted
Size of the 'blue wave' isn't just about how far Dems get in US House.
Hundreds of local offices could flip if Dems have a great night—AGs, county governments, utility commissions, school boards.
Lots to peruse on my guide to 670 items to watch! boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ba…
Phil James retweeted
The reason why DataRepublican isn't showing her data is because it shows a 15-21 point shift to the left from 2024
That would equal a D+16.5 generic ballot. Here's what that result would look like:
I've been asked about early voting analysis.
The dilemma I have is that my platform is big enough such that being too blunt can have an effect on morale. I'll push out new states and tools out to my website soon, but won't announce them here on 𝕏.
I will be giving @realJeremyCarl my predictions a week in advance so he can hold me accountable after Election Day.
You MUST turn out and bring their friends, and brace yourself on election night. Even TX is going to be a fight.
Phil James retweeted
>Trans people: “I’m worried about how some democrats are throwing us under the bus”
>Twitter centrists: “you insane f*gs are making things up, be grateful”
>Democratic candidates: “trans women are men and we should take away their healthcare”
>Twitter centrists: “so true bestie”
Hey @turek4iowa ... take note. THIS is how you take a stand on human rights.
#KansasSenate
Adam Hamilton on transgender rights:
“I don’t think we should take a small group of people and bully them, pick on them, and hurt them. I understand one thing really clearly when it comes to transgender people, and that is Jesus told me I was to love my neighbor as I love myself.”
“I’m gonna love the trans person as well as the straight person, male or female. We have to do better than picking on small groups. What’s happened is we’ve turned a group of people into a campaign issue because it polls well.”
Phil James retweeted
People noticed this earlier this week, but resort and big-city counties are among the biggest sources of campaign donations per resident.
I wrote about why ski and island towns stand out in my breakdown of VoteHub’s new national donor map.
NEW: Inside VoteHub’s 2026 Donor Map
@ryanjmccomb examines the small-dollar gap, the geography of Republican and Democratic giving, and how campaign money flows across state lines.
votehub.com/2026/10/24/insid…
Nixon’s moonshot path to 50.1%:
🌜Black turnout 69%,
🌜Hispanic turnout 55%,
🌜White turnout 60%,
🌜Nixon at 85%/58%/40% respectively
(8.1 mil turnout)
Obama endorses progressive insurgent Angie Nixon for Senate in Florida politi.co/4ifgkdw
If you’re an election nerd who follows Iowa races, follow @IAPrairiePop… Always the best breakdowns of early voting.
Mike heard from me this morning. Shameful. Disappointed that I ever supported him.
GOP Rep. Zach Nunn puts out an ad in #IA03 featuring self-ID'd Democrats (Iowa's local elections are non-partisan) who say they will vote for him over Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott:
"I'm supporting Rob Sand, and I strongly support Zach Nunn."
IA EARLY VOTE: 10/23-Source: @IowaSOS
207,858 ballots received (+24.4% vs. same pt in 2022).
🔵 Dem: 105,780 (50.9%)
🔴 GOP: 66,555 (32.0%)
⚪ No Party: 34,932 (16.8%)
NP up 59% vs. 2022
🚨🚨 Truth Nuke: In 2022, Dems had a 39,819 lead. In 2026 it's 39,225. 🚨🚨
all my normie cycling friends today in iowa
Joe Mitchell: "Thank God you're building the ballroom. Thank God you're getting rid of those awful bike lanes. We don't ride bicycles in Iowa."
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Iowa has extensive cycling infrastructure including bike lanes and trails, plus RAGBRAI, the world's largest multi-day bicycle tour which has crossed the state annually since 1973 with thousands of riders.
ragbrai.com
iowadot.gov/modes-travel/b…
We means test for education all the time. Pell grants, federal work study, head start, TRIO, school lunch, student loans, etc. Yet when kids need breakfast/lunch, Medicaid, section 8 housing, you don't hesitate to call it "welfare." Vouchers are welfare... for rich people.
ICYMI: During the Sioux City debate, Zach Lahn called ESAs an "opportunity fund," not welfare. I agree. Iowa doesn't means-test public education. Family income shouldn't determine eligibility for educational choice. #IAPolitics #iagov #SchoolChoice
🚨 Iowans believing this bullhockey is what 30 years of underfunding education has done to my state
Phil James retweeted
If you want to know why Josh is going to win Iowa, this is the only stat that matters... The last time the president was in town was a week before the war. Average diesel price in Iowa on January 27, 2026 was $3.32 per gallon. Today it's $6.17.
#IowaSenate
Semafor: Josh Turek welcomes President Trump to Iowa
“It’s good. … He needs to see what the policies, like the tariffs and the war in Iran, cuts to healthcare, have done to a state like Iowa.”
semafor.com/article/10/22/20…
it's probably nothing
NYT: Just How Much Are Young Voters Backing Democrats Now? See the Shift.
In the new Times/Siena poll, 70 percent of young voters identified as Democrats or leaned that way — a jump from just two years ago.
Link to article: nytimes.com/2026/10/22/upsho…
