Climate dad, Canadian energy policy nerd. I post about energy technology and policy and how they can stop and eventually reverse climate change. Views my own.
Joined May 2009
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On the train all day, a good day to get back into posting nerdy energy commentary - now to try and train the algorithm to only show me stuff about energy and the Jays.
Harris Berton retweeted
we did this in 2024. @ThirdWayEnergy @RFF, @RockyMtnInst & @JesseJenkins found EPRA's clean energy provisions swamped the fossil ones, and they listened to opponents critiques. others ran LNG-only & inflated numbers and got something scary. both called it "modeling.”
helpful?
This is me with energy policy/TEA 🤣🤣
Harris Berton retweeted
Assuming 29 GJ per tonne bituminous, the coal price below is $5.17/GJ, much more than what US industry and power pays for gas, ~$2.8-3.5/GJ. Just like how we didn't appreciate how cheap capital was for about 15-20 years, I'm not sure we appreciate how cheap North American gas is.
🇨🇳 China's coal prices hit a three-year high 🇨🇳
⛏️ This is driven by sluggish domestic production growth and disruptions to top exporter Indonesia, just as winter demand is set to rise
📈 Benchmark coal prices hit 1,004 yuan a ton ($150) on Monday
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
This dumb argument about bean counting emissions reductions is such a distraction from actually talking about what system change for net zero looks like.
Zeke @hausfath has posted on the economics of energy technologies and argues that deployed solar and wind displace fossil fuels at a 1:1 ratio
He blocks me here so I’ll respond in this thread and post at his site
His analysis has some issues …
1/4
👀👀👀 My fascination with energy systems (and public policy in general) started with SimCity 3000 Unlimited - I've been waiting to this for a loooonnng time.
Update: As of a couple days ago, the full game is released and available on Steam!
store.steampowered.com/app/2…
Harris Berton retweeted
The goal on climate is to get to zero (& then negative) as fast as we can, globally. Supply-side restrictions often don’t work (demand is met, often dirtier) + they ignore problem is global. If you want stranded fossil assets, you beat them on cost and deploy them everywhere.
This is nonsense. Efficient ≠ correct, and climate economists have a lot to answer for conflating these things for so long.
There is no "correct" way to do public policy, that's what democracy is for.
Harris Berton retweeted
It’s totally fine to not like this permitting bill
But you should propose an alternative that takes into account the merits of the text itself and the political economy in which it would be introduced
And explain how that is better than what we have today
Important to note that for modern utility scale farms with high DC:AC ratios and dual axis winter CF will get a huge boost - doesn't mean it replaces nuclear but it does substantially increase its value. Can't be basing our decisions on 10+ year old solar farm design.
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On my way to Halifax for some energy modeling nerdery - got a great view of the Pickering Nuclear Station on the way!
Maybe, but the idiot index is ridiculous; it misunderstands the nature of the economy at a fundamental level.
All raw materials are free - their cost is just a reflection of labour necessary to extract them. Need to look deeper to see if there's actually a problem.
Happy to see Smith acknowledge this nuance alongside stating that wind will be a niche compared to solar. I'm a little unsure of that assertion, but there no doubt solar will be cheapest LCOE.
Harris Berton retweeted
Building a nuclear fleet takes way more than regulatory reform, there’s a skilled labor shortage and industrial inputs that take a while to develop. No way to overcome the start-up costs without some form of subsidy (advanced market commitment, cost overrun insurance, ITC/PTC).
There’s really nothing stopping us from making nuclear cheap today. It will take some time to come online, obviously, but it’s not a “long term plan”, it’s literally a single big overhaul to the regulatory regime and it would cut costs by a gigantic amount. It’s politically implausible for sure, but it’s important that we don’t set aside good things just because the political path isn’t clear yet.
Failing that, we will have to choose between high electricity prices and higher CO2 emissions and pollution. I would pick the latter for a number of reasons, not least that unilateral decarbonisation by Europe isn’t that great for the world anyway. We’ll have to hope that we have frackable gas reserves or we’ll probably have to choose between high prices and coal.
I suspect the optimal mix, on current construction costs, is some combination of gas, coal, solar (in southerly latitudes) and expensive nuclear. I don’t think wind power is useful at all for AI demands, it is too intermittent.
Harris Berton retweeted
I like @WorksInProgMag. They do fantastic work. But their pro-growth agenda seems to be completely at odds with their messaging when it comes to energy.
Wind = bad, spoils the pastoralist view. Typical nimby talking point.
Nuclear = unquestionably good!
But would @s8mb make the same ‘what a shame!’ post if the wind turbines were replaced with pylons and wires to bring centralised nuclear power to inhabitants of this rustic landscape? Dont recall ever seening him complain about those. Nice double standard.
The simple reality is we’ve never needed locally made energy in Europe as much as we need it now. Sure, wind has some downsides compared to nuclear like land use. But it’s also quicker to build, and cheaper too - at least until the 10th nuke gets built, which would take at least a decade, and probably more. Does the power market need improving? Absolutely. And I wish Sam and friends would spend more time thinking about this topic in more detail than fighting the Quixotic crusade.
The most pro-growth course of action is to build what can be built, ASAP. Renewables short term, with gas as support, and nuke long term. That’s a coherent strategy.
The impact of the farmland on this landscape (and most landscapes wind turbines are in) is much, much more significant than the wind turbines.
The double standard is truly absurd, and his nuclear talking points below show what this is really about.
Respectfully, the first step is building out an electricity system that can grow quickly enough to enabling switching away from fossil fuels.
Data centres can be very helpful in this regard, after decades of anemic electricity growth.
Harris Berton retweeted
I have deep, deep respect for Bill Gates. Worked for him for many years. Briefed him often. Admire his philanthropy+++.
He has a terrible track record as a futurist. Thought solar & batteries were 'cute'. Bet on a nuclear design solving the wrong problem. He's just one guy.
Evaluate the argument and the evidence behind it, not the source.
