Colgate University faculty, lover of macroeconomics, articles tweeted are not endorsements (just interesting). Not providing investment advice.
Joined October 2012
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It is weird to feel relieved seeing high inflation in the CPI data but here we are. Feels like a rate hike is a certainty now but FedWatch still shows a 13.3% chance of no hike.
Rich Higgins retweeted
“If you look at the CPI numbers, it’s proper and responsible for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.”
Rich Higgins retweeted
After staying near 63% for decades, the labor share, which is the fraction of output paid to workers as wages and salaries, now stands at an all-time low in the postwar period. Learn more:
libertystreeteconomics.newyo…
Rich Higgins retweeted
A tonal shift on the Fed from Trump, who two weeks ago tweeted out a picture of Powell falling into a dumpster and who last month said he thought Warsh would reduce interest rates
Also some Fed news: I asked Trump this morning about Warsh starting as Fed chair -- I pointed out investors are now pegging a higher chance of a rate HIKE rather than cut by end of year and asked him whether he thinks Warsh will deliver a cut
"I'm going to let him do what he wants to do. He's a very talented guy, he's going to be fine, he's going to do a good job"
Warsh is not walking into an easy job. Given the number of dissents today and supply shocks, that would be true even without the current chair staying on. I am curious about how this plays out.
cnbc.com/2026/04/29/jerome-p…
Interesting overview of research on central bank independence, including one of my papers.
cepr.org/voxeu/columns/centr…
Rich Higgins retweeted
Pirro announces the Federal Reserve probe will end, clearing the way for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair.
Powell had previously asked the IG to audit the construction project last July, and that work is ongoing.
This morning the Inspector General for the Federal Reserve has been asked to scrutinize the building costs overruns – in the billions of dollars – that have been borne by taxpayers.
The IG has the authority to hold the Federal Reserve accountable to American taxpayers. I expect a comprehensive report in short order and am confident the outcome will assist in resolving, once and for all, the questions that led this office to issue subpoenas.
Accordingly, I have directed my office to close our investigation as the IG undertakes this inquiry. Note well, however, that I will not hesitate to restart a criminal investigation should the facts warrant doing so.
The fact that the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment is at an all-time low right now tells you more about the current importance of the measure than the actual economy.
Rich Higgins retweeted
"The Carbon Footprint of U.S. Monetary Policy" by Aliaksandr Amialchuk (@UToledo), Ayse Sapci (@USUAggies) & Onur Sapci (@UToledo).
doi.org/10.1057/s41302-025-0…
Looking at a map of the Strait of Hormuz and thinking about my 9th grade history class. Mr. Wood always talked about the importance of chokepoints. Seems relevant right now.
Rich Higgins retweeted
Here at the Fed, we are rationally exuberant to celebrate your 100th birthday with you. Happy birthday, Alan Greenspan!
youtu.be/lp1sJDa5MsI
Should the incidence of taxes (libertystreeteconomics.newyo…) actually factor into who taxes get rebated to when they are deemed not legal? Or should they go to who actually legally pays the taxes? It's a fun thought experiment, where one policy would surely be manipulated.
Rich Higgins retweeted
Fed governor Michael Barr's latest speech contains
1) A short part on the current policy outlook. The key guidance: "Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time."
2) A much longer discussion of AI, with this summary statement at the end on the implications for the central bank: "For all of these reasons, I expect that the AI boom is unlikely to be a reason for lowering policy rates."
Speech by Governor Barr on artificial intelligence and the labor market: federalreserve.gov/newsevent…
Learn more about Governor Barr: federalreserve.gov/aboutthef…
Rich Higgins retweeted
“The South is now demonstrating that it’s never really been about the kids,” says one former official. “It’s always been about our ability to serve them” economist.com/united-states/…
I would have preferred Waller but Warsh is a more than qualified candidate. I wonder how much Warsh will be able to sway the FOMC, especially if Powell stays as a non-chair governor.
Rich Higgins retweeted
Ummmm. No
Rich Higgins retweeted
Trump is asked about Tillis's view that a criminal investigation of Powell is excessive:
"That’s why Thom’s not going to be a senator any longer, I guess. But I like Thom Tillis. He's a nice guy. But look, he's not going to be a senator any longer because of views like that. We have a bad Fed chairman."
Rich Higgins retweeted
The heads of the central banks in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, the Eurozone, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom have issued a highly unusual statement of support for the Fed and Powell
Rich Higgins retweeted
House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill (R., Ark.) says a possible criminal investigation of Powell is “an unnecessary distraction.”
Powell is “a man of integrity” and a “person of the highest integrity.”
It is wild that we have gotten to this point.
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: federalreserve.gov/newsevent…