Coming on record to say I don’t think this ceasefire holds. Too many variables. Too many actors. Too many incentives to break it. Proxies. Bad faith intermediaries. Money. Power. Revenge. A deal on paper means nothing if the people with guns, leverage, or profit motives aren’t actually aligned. This still feels like a pause everyone can exploit, not a real off-ramp. Bookmark this to throw it in my face when I’m wrong

Nothing substantive coming with these talks. It’s the same dual track playbook we have seen the entire war. It’s glaringly obvious now. Private channels push delegation tomorrow while the Foreign Ministry, Pezeshkian, and the IRGC signal the opposite line at the same time: no deadlines, no force, missiles are sovereign. The goal is to burn another 48 to 72 hours while the ceasefire clock runs down. The core gaps have not moved. Ballistic missiles are off the table. The US and Israel will not accept a framework that leaves them there. Hormuz is still the live pressure valve, and Tehran is not giving that up while the naval posture stays in place. So tomorrow likely looks the same: A low or mid level Iranian delegation for optics/markets Maybe a short statement about continued dialogue. (For markets) No real commitments. (None coming) One side calls it progress. The other calls it standing firm. The real deadlock is still missiles, sanctions relief, and Hormuz security. Among a host of other things that will never actually be agreed upon. This is not resolution. It is escalation management with better wording. The strait is still closed. The clock is still running. The pattern has not changed.

Latest developments this morning: • Trump’s team is still heading to Pakistan Monday for round two • Tasnim says Iran won’t send anyone while the naval blockade stays • Pentagon says boarding parties for Iran-linked tankers are ready worldwide • But Kharg crude is still loading and shadow flows are still moving Short-term cash buffer is alive. Real pressure starts when boardings actually hit exports.

A pause everyone can exploit

This is the main talking point and the biggest pressure point of the entire war. If he is actually serious we are so much more cooked than I thought we were. Who was negotiating and what were they negotiating? None of this makes sense to me.

Today’s Hormuz traffic is still basically frozen. Only 4 confirmed transits so far. Normal is 60–120+ a day. Throughput is running at roughly 1–2% of normal. Meanwhile the backlog keeps building: 244 tankers west of the strait. 156 east. And that’s probably still light. AIS is undercounting because dark fleet traffic, spoofing, and transponders going silent are still distorting the picture. Notable sign today: AURORA reportedly turned around and headed back into the Gulf. So no, this is not normalizing. Traffic is still being throttled hard, even with the ceasefire timeline in the background.