It's Me
Free Angola
Joined October 2025
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Jonas Savimbi retweeted
Can't fix urban without giving a belt treatment to Rural. Our most crucial reforms get halted (land, Labour, agri, industrial) because Rural India has disproportionate power politically. Delimitation is the only solution.
Jonas Savimbi retweeted
folks have no idea how hot the economy is running rn. we used to pray for times like this
A day late in catching up on a very interesting report by @pranjulb on two changes coming to India’s current account balance and hence possibly the rupee.
➡️ First, India’s data centre build out will likely widen the CAD initially as imports for the build out of these facilities rise. Chips / cooling infrastructure etc will all add to imports.
- While this CAD negative, it need not be rupee negative if: 1) the build out is financed by ECBs/FDI), 2) If it is a staggered build-out.
➡️ A second CAD change could come from the spate of FTAs India is signing. In the past trade agreements have widened India’s trade deficit. But the report says that if initial imports are more capital goods, they could be medium-term positive.
-One way to make these agreements “rupee friendly”, the report says, is to pursue FDI alongside.
Lots to think about! But great read, Pranjul!
Jonas Savimbi retweeted
People here don't realize that OROP will quite literally cause exponential increases in the pensions budget going forward.
You are Muslim & Pakistani Zaid. Both of these are huge differences. In the same way that Muslim Americans have their own identity, let Hindu & Indian Americans have their own identity. Don't be ashamed of being a Pakistani Muslim.
Jonas Savimbi retweeted
India makes only 2 GWh of battery cells right now. China makes 2,695 GWh of cell capacity
Trying to beat China on cells is pointless for at least 10 more years But cell making is not where money stays longest. Parts like power converters, battery safety systems, heat control units, container assembly need years of testing and field proof before buyers trust vendors. Indian companies already work in these spaces.
Once that track record exists, rivals cannot just undercut on price. By 2032, certified vendors will own order books
India now requires 20% local content in government funded battery storage projects. Cell making was kept out of this rule because 84% of cells come from China, and that will not change soon. So government pushed localization money toward other parts, battery management systems, power converters, energy software, container building.
These parts carry high switching costs for buyers. Once certified by power companies, vendors cannot be pushed out on price. India has 260 GWh of storage projects in pipeline. Companies that get certified first will keep those orders for years
In India, power electronics companies face invisible barrier at 33kV voltage level. Below 33kV, Indian companies can compete. Above it, giants like Hitachi and Siemens control markets because their software has decades of real world fault data.
That advantage comes from experience, not money But India shift to renewable energy is creating new product spaces where old giants have less edge. Indian companies have 3 to 5 year window before big multinationals decide to come in full force.
Getting first installed projects now decides who wins long term
Jonas Savimbi retweeted
A day late in catching up on a very interesting report by @pranjulb on two changes coming to India’s current account balance and hence possibly the rupee.
➡️ First, India’s data centre build out will likely widen the CAD initially as imports for the build out of these facilities rise. Chips / cooling infrastructure etc will all add to imports.
- While this CAD negative, it need not be rupee negative if: 1) the build out is financed by ECBs/FDI), 2) If it is a staggered build-out.
➡️ A second CAD change could come from the spate of FTAs India is signing. In the past trade agreements have widened India’s trade deficit. But the report says that if initial imports are more capital goods, they could be medium-term positive.
-One way to make these agreements “rupee friendly”, the report says, is to pursue FDI alongside.
Lots to think about! But great read, Pranjul!
Jonas Savimbi retweeted
"The more time we have, the better prepared we might be." I take this not to be an empirical judgement but rather a general faith that their plan, if executed, is sufficient. The consensus in DC appears to be that more time favors the US too. The case here seems strong for rare earth dependency reduction but maybe less so for military stuff.
Over time horizons beyond 2-5 years, PRC global reconnaissance capability increases, US short-run autonomous strike capability increases, US missile capacity rebounds, Taiwan and first island chain base hardening increases, PLAAF c-air capability increases, PLA institutional maturity/readiness (maybe) increases, and both's offensive cyber, EW, and space capabilities increase.
Over time horizons beyond 10 years, the default US nuclear advantage attenuates, PRC global reconnaissance capability increases, we have a bathtub as LA class subs retire before SSN(X) comes online, and our c-air capabilities and deep strike capabilities probably increase (but not enough).
The crux though is institutional maturity/state capacity in the DoD and PLA over time: it's not clear what direction each is moving in in the short run, let alone the long run.
Jonas Savimbi retweeted
Indian oil refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corp. said it faces challenges booking tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz to pick up cargoes, even as an increasing number of vessels make the crossing and crude supply from the region rises.
Availability of freighters and late decisions to pull out from voyages are hindering HPCL’s ability to ship oil from inside the Persian Gulf, Chairman Vikas Kaushal said in an interview in Abu Dhabi this week. The company’s success in transits through Hormuz has been varied, though supplies can still be picked up from outside the chokepoint, he said. #oott bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Jonas Savimbi retweeted
This new Chinese airbase in Damxung, Tibet is ~300 km from Arunachal-Tibet border.
Average altitude is 4000 m, but payload restrictions are largely offset by massive 5.2 km long runway. For reference, Lhasa Airport's runway is 4 km long at 3500 m altitude.
I don't know the exact unit id, but scale of construction indicates large enough for a full PLA Air Force brigade. Can't rule out Chinese stationing a new Airborne brigade or atleast a large detachment here either.
Deployments can be scaled up relatively easily using nearby road highway and railway lines.
Jonas Savimbi retweeted
"Makes a lot more sense" for what? Depends on the context.
Last month, when there was an attempted mass shooting at a Hindu temple in Illinois, many attempted to clump it under "hate against South Asians" when, in fact, the target was almost exclusively Indians. Not to mention that much of the recent online anti-Indian racism/hate has been spewed by X accounts exposed as belonging to other "South Asians."
So it's not really about denying commonalities, but rather that a lot of people justifiably find the knee-jerk tendency to label things "South Asian" rather lazy and, in many cases, inaccurate.
Jonas Savimbi retweeted
🇹🇷🇵🇰🇸🇦 A Turkish Air Force Airbus A400M Atlas strategic military transport aircraft flew from PAF Base Multan to PAF Base Minhas before continuing to King Abdulaziz AB in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, where a Pakistan Air Force JF-17 fighter detachment is deployed.
Jonas Savimbi retweeted
The revamped Agnipath scheme will apply exclusively to the 3 lakh Agniveers currently in service. The govt will revisit the provisions of the scheme for those who begin their military training after Dec 31, 2026. The model unveiled on Nov 4 is seen as the best fit only for now.
Interesting & exciting.
原子力潜水艦の脆弱性に関する研究です。偵察衛星、量子センシング、AIアルゴリズムなどの発展で潜水艦を捜索する新たな技術的手段が強化されつつあります。
Seeing Through “Transparent Oceans”: Emerging Technology, Submarine Vulnerability, and the Future of MAD
doi.org/10.1162/ISEC.a.417
Jonas Savimbi retweeted
Everyday we have to suffer the opportunity costs of Rahul Gandhi & the Indian Left being our primary opposition.
Jonas Savimbi retweeted
Mehdi, you were a middle aged man having spent decades in the UK, and having gone to Oxbridge and worked in the higher levels of UK media, when you were recorded describing non-Muslims as "kafirs" & "animals" in a gathering of Muslims. I would not call others bigoted.
Jonas Savimbi retweeted
Another research paper titled, “The Evolution of China–India Relations and a Way Forward (中印关系嬗变及出路)”, postulates that post Galwan incident, India’s alignment with US has increased and there is a need to restore the strategic balance.
It claims that India’s post-Galwan tilt towards US has left a negative impact on China’s security, economy, strategic environment.
Essentially because it increased US *containment strategy* on one side and India’s *friction strategy* on the other.
The paper published in 2023, recommends that a fresh assessment of India from *bottom line thinking and long-term perspective* was needed.
newreckk.substack.com/p/chin…
Part III : Chinese Views Quad & Indian Ocean Region, Global South and China-India Relationship
Re-constructed from multiple Chinese Research Papers... May read about Chinese Views on India at the link below--
newreckk.substack.com/p/chin…
Mehdi, you were a middle aged man having spent decades in the UK, and having gone to Oxbridge and worked in the higher levels of UK media, when you were recorded describing non-Muslims as "kafirs" & "animals" in a gathering of Muslims. I would not call others bigoted.