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The real magic of Stratfor was we had conversations like this everyday. I didn't realize how special it was till it was gone. This time we kept the mics on. Thanks to @Geo_papic @PeterZeihan @mgertken for making the time.
youtube.com/watch?v=z9zH8CJT…
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
What Really Caused the Kobe Bryant Helicopter Crash ~ Bill Burr & Sam Morril
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
The new Geopolitical Cousins dropped... This one was recorded on Friday, so no real mention of Brazil, Israel, Serbia elections...
geopolitical-cousins.captiva…
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
The Shield of the Americas—with its hyper-militarized strategy and Rambo-style catchphrase—is a squandered opportunity, I told @washingtonpost. “It’s very rare to have so many presidents aligned,” and the Pentagon “is only taking advantage of this moment to generate content for X.”
washingtonpost.com/world/202…
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
I don't think Wang Qishan will be targeted directly. After all, he's now just about the same age as Xi will be when he approaches the 22nd Party Congress in 2032.
That said, a couple further thoughts:
1) for the past 18 months...
1/4
#China #politics
nytimes.com/2026/10/26/world…
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
It feels good to have been months ahead of the @NYTimesChina on the Wang Qishan story.
thediplomat.com/2026/06/not-…
nytimes.com/2026/10/26/world…
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
The opening paragraph to AJP Taylor's "The Course of German History" remains my absolute favourite start to a history book. Nobody's ever hit this hard right off the bat before
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
Impressive #Numbers
Lula increased his vote by 10.3m: similar to the number of people in the Lula's Army WhatsApp channel; & more than the defeated 3rd-party candidates combined.
Where did the votes come from?
Abstention fell from a record high 21%, to 19%, the lowest in 20 years. Blank votes also fell from 6m to 4m.
There is currently widespread concern that rapid technological change will fundamentally change the nature of work. In this paper we show that, despite 140 years of technological change, more than 70 percent of employment today is located in occupations whose core economic functions already existed in the late nineteenth century.
lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/2…
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
Lula wins, and it wasn’t particularly close — 3.5% or more than 4 million votes.
It’s an epic comeback and we will need time to fully understand it. But one thing is clear — the extension in voting hours was not the difference maker in this race.
Replying to @JacobShap
The @gave_vincent interview is well worth a listen…he knows his stuff on France (and lots of other stuff too). podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcas…
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
In almost every state with counting advanced, Lula has doubled his percentage-point lead where he led in the first round.
Where he was behind, he's significantly cut into his deficit (by like 5% points).
been thinking in this direction myself for a bit now.
The ugly truth about France and some of the other European countries currently in turmoil - and which none of the politicians want to admit because it'd be political suicide - is that you can't solve the problem by going after immigrants (as the right asserts) or the rich (as the left asserts), but you could solve it by going after the old.
One extraordinary statistic for you: people over 60 in France, a quarter of the population, own 60% of France's wealth, non-financial and financial (ofce.fr/pdf/revue/2025/3-192…).
And here is another crazy statistic:
that same quarter of the population, those above 60, receive nearly two-thirds of all social spending by the French government (previssima.fr/actualite/prot…) - which is famously among the highest in the world (France's government spending is an insane 57.3% of GDP).
Last statistic: they make up about 40% of voters because they're a third of registered voters (insee.fr/fr/statistiques/266…), and they turn out far more than anyone else (franceinfo.fr/elections/sond…).
Put our 3 statistics together and there's almost a bit of an apartheid situation here: the old own most of the country's wealth, collect most of the social spending and have the political power to keep it that way.
Which makes them a de-facto rentier class, living off assets and transfers paid for by younger generations.
And, of course, at the risk of stating a truism, the future is built by the young. Yet France keeps effectively taking money away from them to give it to those whose working lives are already behind them - and need the money far less since they already own the country's wealth.
What about inheritance, I hear you ask? That's the funniest/saddest aspect: given that life expectancy has kept rising, the French now inherit a home at 54 on average. The most common case is someone in their 80s leaving it to heirs in their 50s, in effect the very old transferring wealth to the about-to-be old (insee.fr/fr/statistiques/fic…).
You can add this to our earlier apartheid statement: on top of all the rest, even when the old finally let go of their wealth, it stays within their own "camp".
That's my personal situation, incidentally: I'm 42, my father is 71 and he is starting to look at ways to pass things on to me and my siblings, when our professional lives are already well settled, so it'll arrive when it changes things the least, which is pretty much the French system in a nutshell.
Now, I get that there'd be some unfairness in going after them: they paid into the system their entire working lives, playing by the rules of a social contract that told them if they paid up they'd collect at the end. Changing the rules now means breaking that promise, which is admittedly unfair.
But there's no magic wealth tree in any society: you can only take it where it is. That's the way most major societal transformations end up happening. They're often triggered by a catastrophic event (the so-called "four horsemen": mass-mobilisation war, revolution, state collapse, plague) BUT what really drives change is a transfer: wealth gets pried from the privileged class who've been sitting on it and handed to those who'll build what comes next.
So, in theory and in an ideal world, you can do without the catastrophic event and directly proceed with the transfer...
The fact that in France, and elsewhere in Europe, it's the youth protesting is probably no coincidence - even though they don't frame it as a generational fight. And even though, cruel irony, the left politicians many of them march behind promise to bring the retirement age back to 60 (lcp.fr/actualites/legislativ…), which would make the situation even worse.
Let's say they understand intuitively that the system is stacked against them, even if they haven't yet figured out how. And politicians are obviously doing what politicians do, meaning pandering to the people who actually vote, while pointing the young towards easier - and politically convenient - scapegoats.
To be clear I'm not saying it's the only problem in France, VERY far from it. I'm also not saying that all old people in France live a lavish lifestyle at the expense of younger generations: there are also plenty of very poor retirees who, if anything, would deserve more.
What I am saying is that it's probably the biggest elephant in the room: everyone can see it, nobody dares mention it - no politician, from any side, wants to run on cutting grandma's pension - and it makes every other problem harder to fix.
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
Brazil. Could be a long, tense night — or longer. Both sides alleging irregularities / problems. Single Supreme Court judge ordered 2 hour extension in voting, but some stations closed anyway. I have sources on both sides talking about legal challenges. Sorry to say, looking like another step in the americanização of Brazilian politics
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
Lula overtakes Flávio Bolsonaro with about half the votes counted. Polymarket now gives him a 95% chance of winning. As recently as last night, traders put his odds at around 17%. If he holds on, it would rank among the most remarkable comebacks in Brazilian electoral history.
Jerry Seinfeld says worrying about your problems is a complete waste of time and brainpower
"One of his number one things is: if you can’t control it, don’t bother thinking about it"
"Somebody gave me this book a couple years ago, Meditations, which has nothing to do with meditation. This is just stuff he jotted down when he was Emperor of Rome, 150 AD. It's the most brilliant philosophical looking at life"
"You’re taking energy, your brain, away from things you can control. You can control your act"
"On the night of the show, whatever didn’t sell or whatever the problems are, the sound, you’re tired... it’s a waste of time. There’s no point in thinking too much about it"
"Your success in life: think about what I can do today that’s important for me in my life. That’s where you should be focusing. That’s Marcus Aurelius"
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
From me:
theglobeandmail.com/culture/…
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
Barack Obama decided to hit Pete Hegseth with the elbow from the top rope. Absolutely brutal takedown.
jacob l. shapiro retweeted
We obviously haven’t had the major jobs wipeout yet. But you read stuff like this. And you read what economics students themselves are saying about working with AI (ht @odavis_h) and it’s hard not to feel like the seismic shift is on its way.
Replying to @Neil_Irwin
He goes so far as to say that if he were to run the White House CEA today he'd do it with a lot of reliance on Claude and friends.

























