Professor of Public Policy and Governance, and Faculty Representative to the Washington State Legislature, University of Washington
Seattle, WA
Joined June 2012
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On the economics of economics: a 🧵
(tl;dr = Universities make money on superstars in, say, biomedical research. So any institution can afford to hire them. Superstar economists are money-losing investments and only wealthy institutions can afford them.)
Economics is the *only* scientific field in which the concentration of institutional affiliations of award-winning researchers (i.e., more winners at top universities) has increased over time.nber.org/papers/w35875
The problem: economists don't do big Federal grants. They do smaller grants, typically from foundations paying cut-rate indirects. So let's say $150k/year in grants generating F&A at 15%. ($25k/year).
So your $500k economist is generating just $85k/year in revenue.
A century ago the nation's first minimum wage laws were weekly, not hourly. Is it time to go back? open.substack.com/pub/jacobv…
Washington state's revenue collections simply aren't adequate to fund public services at levels other states take for granted. A recent Fed Reserve Bank of Minneapolis study ranks us 48th in terms of state/local tax rate. We, higher income people especially, can afford more.
UW economist Jacob Vigdor has conservative bonafides and raised progressives' ire with his past research on the minimum wage. But now he's all in for Washington to tax the rich, writes columnist Danny Westneat. st.news/3FOnUfo
Unlike other states with strong tech sectors, Washington's is based overwhelmingly on imported entrepreneurship & talent. And its tax revenue model has become dependent on population growth. Without a stronger education infrastructure, this isn't going to end well (1/2)
Tariffs of a Century Ago Were So Unpopular They Drove 42 States to Approve... The Income Tax open.substack.com/pub/jacobv…
Washington started a cap-and-trade carbon permit system in 2023. A proposal to repeal it is now on the ballot. The evidence suggests it's raised gas prices by more than "pennies," but that may be a good thing...open.substack.com/pub/jacobv…
The economy seems fine, so why is Washington's state budget outlook so gloomy? It's because the state has become dependent on population growth to fund government, and population growth has hit lows not seen in a half-century or more. open.substack.com/pub/jacobv…
The last time Washington's population growth looked this feeble was the Boeing bust of the early 1970s. Here's why that threatens to cause belt tightening in state and local government. open.substack.com/pub/jacobv…
We've got some initiatives on the ballot in Washington this year... first in a series of reflections on the economics behind them!
open.substack.com/pub/jacobv…
If given the option, expect younger and higher-income workers to opt out of the WA CARES long-term care insurance plan, almost certainly dooming it to insolvency.
open.substack.com/pub/jacobv…
This chart caught my eye this morning... I know @UW joined the Big 10 but apparently Washington state has also joined the Rust Belt? Most manufacturing job losses of any state 2019-2023. What's going on? Lets drill down just a bit (1/2)
[1/3] Terrific new report from @AugustBenzow & @cojobrien showing, among other things, that the manufacturing employment recovery has been led not by the older manufacturing strongholds (Rust Belt) but by parts of the country booming overall (Sun Belt): eig.org/manufacturing-reboun…
If we break manufacturing down into 21 segments, transportation equipment (@Boeing etc) accounts for half the losses. But 13 of 21 segments show losses, with the largest percentage loss in the state's (relatively small) apparel manufacturing industry, down more than 25% (2/2).
