Austrian 🇦🇹(&🇺🇸) Economist 📈 But definitely not an Austrian economist! @nberpubs | @ecgiorg | @cepr_org | @BUQuestrom

🇦🇹 & 🇪🇺 & 🇺🇸
Joined March 2013
You've seen the live performance. You've seen the slides. And maybe you've even seen the leaked rough cut that circulated online. So here it is at last: "Anonymity and Identity Online (Taylor's Version)" florianederer.github.io/ejmr…
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Florian Ederer retweeted
My view on the California wealth tax proposal is probably more nuanced than some of my followers may want it to be. Prop 40, as designed, has both strong pros and strong cons. My main complaint is that the scientific debate around it has been polluted by political prejudices. 🧵
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Replying to @lwsamson
Yes, you're right. But that's partly my point. Plenty of orthodox economists have heterodox ideas that, when good and right, get incorporated into the orthodoxy.
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Or, what recent ideas by heterodox economists were initially dismissed but have since become mainstream economics?
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Heterodox economists claim that they're systematically shut out of top econ journals. So I have a genuine question: What are the best recent heterodox papers that deserved publication in a top journal but were rejected? @IsabellaMWeber @devikadutt @DanielaGabor
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Florian Ederer retweeted
Very happy to share a new paper, “Technology Bottlenecks: Measuring Where AI Could Raise the Value of Work It Cannot Yet Do.” AI exposure measures ask about the work AI is capable of doing. We ask instead where the marginal value of work AI cannot yet do may rise as AI speeds up the rest of the job. To do so, we employ 288 million U.S. job postings mapped line by line to their closest O*NET tasks and GPT-4 feasibility ratings from Eloundou et al. (2024) to construct a measure, “bottleneck pressure,” for each task in each occupation that posts it. Using a simple task-based framework, we derive this pressure at the task level, showing that for an AI-infeasible task it is the exposure of the occupation that posts it, so the same task can face very different bottleneck pressure in different jobs. Reporting bottleneck pressure alongside AI exposure shows both the scope for AI to perform work and where improving the work it cannot do may pay off more as capabilities expand.
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Florian Ederer retweeted
Chat + write-up with @EconoFactOrg on the lasting impacts of gender discrimination from the pre civil rights era. The chat also includes a multi-generation perspective on the economics profession. econofact.org/podcast/the-lo… econofact.org/the-long-shado…
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Florian Ederer retweeted
Honoured and delighted to win sports journalist and scoop of the year at the @londonpressclub awards.
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Florian Ederer retweeted
Viele syrische und iranische Kinder spielen Schach, die ukrainischen sowieso. Habe immer 1 Schachspiel in der Schule. Wenn ich mich in 1 Freistunde oder nach dem Unterricht damit in den Park setze, ist immer eine Traube von (Ex-)Schülern da, die spielen und quatschen wollen. 1/2
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Florian Ederer retweeted
this is terrible advice
NYT style is recommending tie-less suits with dress sneakers to disown the cons. Bleak.
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That's an amazingly broad set of supporters. I love it.
NEWS: 19 FORMER ECONOMIC AND NATIONAL SECURITY LEADERS ENDORSE THE BIPARTISAN PERMITTING REFORM BILL Today, a group of former Cabinet members and White House principals across seven Democratic and Republican administrations sent a letter calling on Congress to pass BAAJA. Here are the signatories: Janet YELLEN, Michael R. POMPEO, Steven T. MNUCHIN, Leon E. PANETTA, Timothy F. GEITHNER, Henry M. PAULSON, Jr., Robert E. RUBIN, Stephen MIRAN, Jared BERNSTEIN, Tyler GOODSPEED, Jason FURMAN, Glenn HUBBARD, Laura D’Andrea TYSON, Michael J. BOSKIN, Jeffrey ZIENTS, Jake SULLIVAN, Brian DEESE, Larry KUDLOW, Allan B. HUBBARD Key highlights from the letter: 1. “We are not building infrastructure fast enough to remain globally competitive… The median time for a new power plant to move from an interconnection request to commercial operation has more than doubled, from less than two years for projects built between 2000 and 2007 to more than four years for projects built between 2018 and 2024. 2. China has built more high-voltage transmission in the last fifteen years than the U.S. has built in all of its history... In 2024, China accounted for 31.5% of global knowledge- and technology-intensive manufacturing value added, compared with 20.7% for the United States. 3. Federally funded or permitted projects require NEPA review, but private projects often do not, creating a threat of failure precisely where the government is trying to be proactive, strategic, and engaged. 4. A project that spends years awaiting approval must continue carrying development and financing costs while remaining exposed to rising input costs. The IEA reports that prices for utility-scale transformers increased 26% in 2024, while lead times for some transformers have stretched as long as six years. 5. Mining projects also face tremendous uncertainty: a 2026 study by researchers at the Colorado School of Mines found that permitting for modern mining projects takes an average of 5.5 years, rising to 8.9 years for contested projects. The U.S. currently has the second-longest mine development timeline in the world. 6. The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act is the most significant bipartisan legislative effort that Congress has undertaken in decades to tackle these challenges. 7. BAAJA addresses key constraints stifling American industry by requiring interregional transmission planning, strengthening the federal backstop for nationally significant transmission lines, and creating a faster, more predictable process for connecting new generation to the grid. 8. BAAJA also makes permits more durable by imposing tighter timelines for litigation and limiting frivolous lawsuits that can halt projects indefinitely, while preserving community input and judicial review of substantive agency decisions.” The letter was organized by @arnabdatta321 on behalf of @IFP and covered exclusively by the WSJ this morning.
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Florian Ederer retweeted
What do Larry Kudlow, Janet Yellen, Steve Mnuchin, @econJaredB & me have in common? We all believe the permitting reform bill is essential for America to build, grow, tackle climate change and maintain our technological lead. Probably the broadest letter I've ever signed.
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Florian Ederer retweeted
Talking to @_alice_evans is like simultaneously talking to 10 PhD advisers who give excellent advice on which economic topics are interesting and worth writing a paper about.
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It's good that FIFA handed out significant sanctions against Egypt (Hassan, Hassan, Zico), Argentina (Paredes, Molina, Almada), and Spain (Gavi). But it's bad that it took so long so that their infractions have now faded from public memory. The deterrence effect is too small!
Egypt hit with FIFA sanctions! 🇪🇬 Hossam Hassan, Ibrahim Hassan, and Mostafa Zico have been handed significant disciplinary punishments following their heated comments after Egypt's dramatic World Cup exit against Argentina 🚨 Read more 🔗 goal.com/en/lists/egypt-fifa…
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Florian Ederer retweeted
We must stop anything that threatens my rents
JUST IN: Veradermics announces its experimental hair-loss pill significantly increased hair growth in over 500 men, with no serious side effects reported in a late-stage study.
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Florian Ederer retweeted
What happens to innovation after Big Tech buys a startup Florian Ederer @florianederer @BUQuestrom, Regina Seibel @ReginaSeibel4 @UofT, Timothy S. Simcoe @BUQuestrom ow.ly/fTSM50ZZcaL
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Boston / Mass friends & the magical web: I have a wonderful friend who speaks Portuguese, Spanish, and English fluently and she holds a law degree from Brazil. She’s looking for paralegal work, gym/fitness gigs (a golfer player!!), translation gigs, or opportunities to work with kids. She’s incredibly warm and hardworking, great with children. Green-card holder, no sponsorship needed. Any leads will be appreciated!! 🙏
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Florian Ederer retweeted
The fatal challenge to heterodox economics is that there isn't actually orthodox economics. Just take a few recent Nobels: behavioral, information failure, institutions, bubbles, financial fragility, labor monopsony (sort of), Schumpeterian creative destruction, etc. Not to mention RCTs which are emblematic of how much economic research is empirical and only lightly if at all structural. The real difference is methods. Heterodox economics is an avowedly political project not a social scientific effort to better understand the world. And I have nothing against political projects just shouldn't confuse the two.
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The comments illustrate how unpopular such policies are (on this platform). I'm very surprised that Scott Kirby decided to come out in favor.
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I've always wondered though how many people actually pay the 40% federal estate tax. My understanding was that ever rising exemption levels and lots of loopholes completely eroded that tax base. @wwwojtekk @omzidar
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@arpitrage answered my question. "2.8 million Americans died in 2022. An estate tax return will be filed for only about 7,100 (0.25% of decedents) and only about 4,000 (0.14%) will pay any estate tax." taxpolicycenter.org/briefing…
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