Founder and Chief Data Officer @Oddmanlabs and AugurScore|@SA_Purdue| @wildwestmidwest podcast| Explaining the numbers behind the game|
Joined September 2022
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Kabir Devgun retweeted
Completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of starting quarterbacks by pass depth:
Geno Smith downfield throws go brrrrrrrr
Kabir Devgun retweeted
Sports Equinox Monday:
There are games in the NBA, NHL, NFL and Major League Baseball all on the same night for just the 33rd time, according to the founders of @bball_ref, since the first time it happened in October 1971.
And: Dream at Valkyries in Game 5 of the WNBA Finals.
Kabir Devgun retweeted
I think its really interesting to see where players yards per route run comes from: air yards or yards after catch?
Yards per route run leaders, 2026 through Week 6 WRs with 120+ routes, TEs 100+):
1. Zay Flowers 3.77
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 3.57
3. Mike Evans 3.41
4. Drake London 3.24
5. Puka Nacua 2.80
6. Christian Watson 2.64
7. CeeDee Lamb 2.63
8. Jaylin Noel 2.53
9. Jalen Coker 2.53
10. Nico Collins 2.52
11. Chris Olave 2.50
12. Brock Bowers (TE) 2.50
13. Tee Higgins 2.49
14. Matthew Golden 2.43
15. Parker Washington 2.39
16. Malik Nabers 2.36
17. Tetairoa McMillan 2.36
18. George Kittle (TE) 2.34
19. Dalton Kincaid (TE) 2.33
20. DeVonta Smith 2.26
21. Luther Burden 2.21
22. Garrett Wilson 2.17
23. Travis Kelce (TE) 2.17
24. Davante Adams 2.08
25. Tre Tucker 1.99
26. Khalil Shakir 1.99
27. Carnell Tate 1.95
28. Amon-Ra St. Brown 1.92
29. Keon Coleman 1.91
30. Ja'Marr Chase 1.88
31. Brenton Strange (TE) 1.87
32. Isaiah Likely (TE) 1.86
Data: @SumerSports
Kabir Devgun retweeted
😈 Zach Edey. Beast.
In last night’s 3-point win over the Warriors:
✅ 139.6 offensive rating
✅ 84.0 defensive rating
✅ +55.6 net rating
📈 +25 in 22 minutes when on the floor
Kabir Devgun retweeted
NFL QB Efficiency Against the Blitz:
Week 1-6
Tyler Huntley leading the league in EPA/Dropback against the blitz is objectively hilarious 😂
#RavensFlock #HTownMade #Jaguars
Kabir Devgun retweeted
I used to build 4th-down models for a sportsbook. We didn't care what coaches should do, only what they would do.
Coaches go for it 29% of the time the model says to.
Shanahan goes when it's obvious, kicks when it's less clear: 3rd most conservative since 2014.
Does it pay to play it safe? ⬇️
xitter.cf/katsuxbt/status/211234…
Kyle Shanahan says a 51% analytics recommendation won’t convince him to go for it because he gets one shot, not an hour at a blackjack table
“I don’t want to hear about it if it’s 51% of the time we should go for it.”
“As I always say, I’m not sitting here playing Blackjack for an hour with no one else at the table, and eventually I’ll get 51% of it. Like, I have this one try, and I have a feel for it. I’ve been doing it too long.”
“But what I want to know from him, when it’s not a feel, when it, no, this is 98%. We don’t even need to talk about it. So we don’t need to talk about it. Tell me when it’s that, and I’ll just do it.”
Kabir Devgun retweeted
Which quarterbacks have been more explosive vs. more consistent through six weeks:
Kabir Devgun retweeted
Top-5 teams in blitz rate and where they rank in the NFL in sack rate.
Vikings: 67% and No. 1
Commanders: 47% and No. 25
Bucs: 42 % and No. 23
Jets: 40% and No. 6
Bears: 40% and No. 2
Kabir Devgun retweeted
8 years ago today, Purdue destroyed #2 Ohio State 49 to 20. Rondale Moore as a freshman WR had 12 catches for 170 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State) went 49-of-73 passing for 470 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
#TylerStrong
Top 5 rushers in explosive run rate, Week 6(min. 10 attempts):
1. Kenneth Walker III(21.4%)
T2. Chuba Hubbard
Jonathan Taylor(14.3%)
4. James Cook (13.6%)
5. Bam Knight(13.3%)
*Explosive Run is a run of 10+ yards
Kabir Devgun retweeted
Jordan Love vs. the blitz tonight:
8/13, 100 yards, 0 sacks, +0.38 EPA per play, 53.8% success rate
Coming into the game, he ranked 16th among qualified QBs with -0.03 EPA per play against the blitz. Tonight, he diagnosed the extra rushers and threw the ball efficiently.
Every QB's time to throw comes from somewhere: the pocket holding up, or the QB buying it himself. This chart splits QBs into four buckets.
Protected (long time to throw, stays in the pocket): These QBs get time without leaving the pocket, a sign the protection is holding up.
Extenders (long time to throw, leaves the pocket often): Much of their time is self-made. They escape, reset, and extend the play outside the pocket.
Creators (average or quick time to throw, leaves the pocket often): They get out of the pocket early, either by design or because pressure arrives fast. Their movement isn't a product of extra time.
Rhythm passers (quick time to throw, stays in the pocket): The ball comes out on schedule. The offense is built to avoid needing protection at all.
The trend line shows that more time usually means more movement. A QB's distance above or below it shows whether that time came from his line or from himself.
Kabir Devgun retweeted
Asking the NFL why we can’t have elite throwback uniform matchups EVERY Thursday night
Kabir Devgun retweeted
Situational football through Week 5. The 49ers convert 51.9% of the time on third down and score a touchdown on 88.2% of red zone trips
