Tl:dr, midterms are over, so Vance is wasting no time in distancing himself. So he enlisted ChatGPT to help him respond like a human that was capable of humility.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Anyone who sees MAGA calling fraud to any results they don’t like tonight need only this reaction video #midterms
We're supposed to believe Netenyahu *approached* Trump and said "please stop giving us aid, we'd like to buy from you instead"?
BREAKING: President Donald Trump says the US will halt around $4bn in aid to Israel
Read more: trib.al/e3zzgR6
📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube
I’m starting to think this was orchestrated. Haley demands something days out from the election she knows she wasn’t going to get, gets her day in the news cycle, and 24 hours later she’s nuzzling on trumps teat? Something stinks.
She heard the tiktok warriors complaining she was "promoting an extravagant lifestyle in a cost of living crisis" last year and said "since you're broke let me spray you with some bodymist that cost under $20" 😭
"Allies like the UK have been urging their populations to stockpile for 90 days"... what lol
🚨 THE PENTAGON’S DOOMSDAY PLAN: The Pentagon is preparing for a nightmare scenario—a global war that could knock out power grids, cripple supply chains and leave U.S. military bases cut off from essential services. ⚡️
@JenGriffinFNC breaks down the 90-day survival plan.
The clock change seems more jarring this year in London cos there was no easing between hot and cold seasons.
Acclimatised to non-stop sunshine and warm weather for like 5 months, a couple of weeks of meh, now it's like "no daylight before 5pm til Feb btw x"
MUST THE SIMPSONS PREDICT EVERYTHING?!
Watch. This is being reported in multiple states.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
This video is from Indiana's 2018 midterms, showing a calibration issue on a voting machine for candidates Jim Baird (R) and Tobi Beck (D), who last ran against each other then. It was a reported local malfunction.
independent.co.uk/news/world/ame…
jconline.com/story/news/pol…
My hot take is this is Mariah's best lead single. The chorus is still an absolute earworm 25+ years later. And the pre-chorus and "gimme your loves" being so well put together she ends the song with all 3 playing at the same time?! Just pop perfection.
