š @Unexpected_Pts newsletter/pod. Previously Data Scientist @PFF. Stats are numbers, numbers are nerds, nerds are losers. Therefore, stats are losers
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Joined May 2014
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For the Colts, blowing fourth quarter leads looks like noise.
There might be more signal with the Ravens, though the larger context muddies the picture as much as it clarifies
unexpectedpoints.com/p/will-ā¦
Kevin Cole retweeted
My entire write-up with more advanced stats and visuals. I dissect the Week 6 changes and talk about MVP markets, including a longer-shot QB who I think is priced too low
unexpectedpoints.com/p/adjusā¦
The discussion isn't whether the coaches have relevant contextual information beyond models. They do.
But the evidence shows that they have bias towards information that makes the conversion more difficult. It doesn't work as often in the other direction
Over the past 5 seasons, the 49ers have faced 311 4th downs where the difference between go & kick was 2 percentage points or less (like his 51-49 hypothetical). They have kicked 89% of the time in those situations
xitter.cf/BaySean/status/2112902ā¦
Josh Allen has risen to the top of the @Unexpected_Pts Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency.
Allen is also leading in total adjusted EPA
My entire write-up with more advanced stats and visuals. I dissect the Week 6 changes and talk about MVP markets, including a longer-shot QB who I think is priced too low
unexpectedpoints.com/p/adjusā¦
Should Eric Dickerson worry about Kenneth Walkerās hot start? @Unexpected_Pts
Looking back through decades of NFL data to see how Walker's start compares to the greatest rushing seasons ever
Link below
Good outcomes for the @Unexpected_Pts Power Rankings in Week 6, letās see what they say about misaligned markets in Week 7.
Link to review of Week 6, rankings for Week 7, comparison to prediction/betting markets and my commentary: unexpectedpoints.com/p/week-ā¦
*For recreational purposes only*
Example of last week's @Unexpected_Pts "Model vs Market" table from Sunday morning. I update this daily for injuries and other news along with the power rankings
I need to know the 98% go-for-it situations (not even sure what that percentage means, but anyway) when the coach doesn't already believe they should
Kyle Shanahan says a 51% analytics recommendation wonāt convince him to go for it because he gets one shot, not an hour at a blackjack table
āI donāt want to hear about it if itās 51% of the time we should go for it.ā
āAs I always say, Iām not sitting here playing Blackjack for an hour with no one else at the table, and eventually Iāll get 51% of it. Like, I have this one try, and I have a feel for it. Iāve been doing it too long.ā
āBut what I want to know from him, when itās not a feel, when it, no, this is 98%. We donāt even need to talk about it. So we donāt need to talk about it. Tell me when itās that, and Iāll just do it.ā
NFL EPA leaderboards @Unexpected_Pts updated for Week 6 through MNF.
Brock is out of the top spot (can't exact number with rounding) in per-play efficiency, though Lamar has significantly lower volume.
Josh Allen ahead in total EPA
Kenneth Walker's 665 rushing yards through five games trail only four of the 20 best rushing seasons ever at the same point:
OJ Simpson 1973 (813)
Jim Brown 1963 (787)
Jamal Lewis 2003 (742)
DeMarco Murray 2014 (670)
Walker is ahead of Eric Dickerson's record 1984 season, which had just 498 through five games. His 17-game pace is 2,261 yards. To break Dickerson's 2,105, he needs 120 yards a game the rest of the way, about 90% of his current rate.
Derrick Henry shows up twice in the top-20 seasons.
He faded in 2024, but finished strong in 2020 (16 games)
