30 | Investing to $1,000,000 in my taxable brokerage | Crazy enough to jump out of planes for fun | not financial advice

Joined January 2019
70 and sunny 😎
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Stay tuned for our next information arbitrage Delta Sheet thread. This one will be on a cheap defense company with multiple levers to grow for several years. No .. it’s not $IEHC or $SODI. However, they would’ve been good guesses. @Mike10947310 @Diego_La_Torre_ @KyleAdamsStocks @BlackScholesMan
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Good read on $IA. One of my mistakes buying at $5 and selling way too soon. Seems like the thesis is stronger today than even then, so going to give it a deeper look. Gave you a follow @UCompounders.
I've turned over hundreds of rocks, and out of everything, $IA is the company I chose to make my biggest position: about 30%. The stock trades at $18 and I'm convinced it'll hit $100 someday. The question is when. (No reverse split planned, I promise.) Full thesis below:
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Some big pullbacks in some names. $TTMI $ARGX $CRDO $AAOI $IESC $PENG I’m thinking to get back into $IESC first, but my screener pulled some other interesting names. Which ones do people like / why?
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Kyle Adams retweeted
Today, we’re announcing Runlayer has raised $30M from Felicis and Khosla Ventures to help companies go all in on AI. Runlayer is the golden path for AI: enablement, security, and control in one platform. So, how does it give your team the right tools for AI? 🧵
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Kyle Adams retweeted
Within 18-24 months, every enterprise will have an AI platform team. 15 years ago there was no cloud infra team. Now every company has one. 10 years ago there was no data platform team. Then all of a sudden you have Databricks and Snowflake, and there's a data platform team. If you asked 50 Fortune 500s today "Where does this all live?" They'd say it lives somewhere between security, IT, or we have no idea. There's too much infrastructure here that has to be controlled, coordinated, aligned. And over the next 18 to 24 months, you're going to see a new function. That's the AI platform team.
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Kyle Adams retweeted
If you're not tuned in to enterprise AI adoption, let me tell you that no one knows what they're doing. It's a gigantic power struggle between governance, security, AI enablement, IT, data science, all between one set of agents. All while the board says "We need to be AI native" without a clue what that actually means. If you're at a small startup that's using agents and skills and domain-specific harnesses, be very grateful.
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Friday night date.
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Should probably clarify and add I have nothing against people who post thoughtful posts, but just don’t love seeing people post buys over and over. I have a lot of respect for people like @mvcinvesting who post thoughtful content.
If I had a dollar for every time I saw a $NBIS or $IREN post about buying more of the stock over the last few days, and it then proceeding to go lower I’d be a very wealthy man. Just remember we are entering a rate hike cycle, people are questioning the AI spend heavily, Anthropic is looking at an IPO of $500B less, and many of these large AI labs have hundreds of billions of dollars in capex commitments, and will have a hard time finding capital soon to provide the necessary $ to fund it. AI and the technology are real, but there are many other factors at play, and if the ROI doesn’t show up soon, then we should expect a slowdown. Just some food for thought.
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If I had a dollar for every time I saw a $NBIS or $IREN post about buying more of the stock over the last few days, and it then proceeding to go lower I’d be a very wealthy man. Just remember we are entering a rate hike cycle, people are questioning the AI spend heavily, Anthropic is looking at an IPO of $500B less, and many of these large AI labs have hundreds of billions of dollars in capex commitments, and will have a hard time finding capital soon to provide the necessary $ to fund it. AI and the technology are real, but there are many other factors at play, and if the ROI doesn’t show up soon, then we should expect a slowdown. Just some food for thought.
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$PPIH, $ASYS, $SILC - 3 AI names I like. Don’t have much debt, strong balance sheets, and should see strong earnings growth the next 12-18 months. I’d be super cautious buying companies with a lot of debt (think neoclouds), especially when interest rates will surely go up the next few quarters, and many of them need to raise a lot more capital, which will be expensive.
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Agree with this. Everyone running should be forced to debate their opponent. Don’t care what political party they are.
Stephen A. Smith to Ken Paxton: "I don't care who you are. You don't deserve to be in office if you can't show up for a debate in 12 years."
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$PPIH, $ASYS, $SILC - 3 AI names I like. Don’t have much debt, strong balance sheets, and should see strong earnings growth the next 12-18 months. I’d be super cautious buying companies with a lot of debt (think neoclouds), especially when interest rates will surely go up the next few quarters, and many of them need to raise a lot more capital, which will be expensive.
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I started a position in $ASYS. I really like the setup here. The business is increasingly shifting toward AI-driven semiconductor advanced packaging, while the weaker SiC-related business continues to shrink. AI-related revenue was up ~120% YoY last quarter, TPS backlog is up 69%, and I think 2027 could be an inflection year as this demand really starts hitting the P&L. I’m also a big fan of new CEO Guy Shechter. He has deep semiconductor experience, strong industry relationships, and has been very visible meeting customers, partners and investors based on LinkedIn. Add in $83M+ of cash, and Amtech has plenty of flexibility to invest behind its strongest businesses or pursue an accretive acquisition. There’s also some longer-term optionality around thermal/cooling applications that I’m watching. Only one initial deal has been done here. Too early to tell though, so not a main part of the thesis. The stock isn’t optically cheap on current earnings, but 2027 estimates paint a much different picture. Around $15/share, I think the risk/reward is compelling enough to own an initial position. Looking forward to digging deeper into this one.
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Good day to raise my $ASYS to a full position. We are now at the level the CFO bought shares open market.
I started a position in $ASYS. I really like the setup here. The business is increasingly shifting toward AI-driven semiconductor advanced packaging, while the weaker SiC-related business continues to shrink. AI-related revenue was up ~120% YoY last quarter, TPS backlog is up 69%, and I think 2027 could be an inflection year as this demand really starts hitting the P&L. I’m also a big fan of new CEO Guy Shechter. He has deep semiconductor experience, strong industry relationships, and has been very visible meeting customers, partners and investors based on LinkedIn. Add in $83M+ of cash, and Amtech has plenty of flexibility to invest behind its strongest businesses or pursue an accretive acquisition. There’s also some longer-term optionality around thermal/cooling applications that I’m watching. Only one initial deal has been done here. Too early to tell though, so not a main part of the thesis. The stock isn’t optically cheap on current earnings, but 2027 estimates paint a much different picture. Around $15/share, I think the risk/reward is compelling enough to own an initial position. Looking forward to digging deeper into this one.
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Kyle Adams retweeted
"If a peer comes to ask me how to deal with the agentic risk that we're all seeing the first thing I'd tell him or her is to get Runlayer." - Jonathan Jaffe, CISO at Lemonade We're proud to partner with @Lemonade_Inc to govern their agentic workloads. Over the past 90 days, Runlayer has managed 300K MCP tool calls across Lemonade's 1700+ person workforce while executing 25M+ security checks. "Runlayer has allowed Security to enable the business rather than be a source of friction."
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$VST article is live. Recent Cogentrix acquisition, bundled with long term PPAs with META and AMZN give the company a clear runway for growth. Recent US government loan of $4.2 billion highlights the companies strong relationship with policy makers (Nancy Pelosi has a stake) which is a huge part of a regulated business. ERCOT segment growth in Texas is poised to continue accelerating and $VST is the best positioned company to take advantage of that dynamic. Link in bio.
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$VST remains one of my favorite ways to play rising U.S. power demand. Vistra is already benefiting from stronger pricing. Q2 adjusted EBITDA increased more than 30% YoY to $1.77B, driven primarily by higher realized energy and capacity prices along with contributions from acquired assets. Management continues to expect major load growth through 2030, which is roughly 4-6% annually in ERCOT and 2-3% in PJM driven by data centers, reshoring, electrification and population growth. The nuclear story is even more compelling. Vistra signed 20-year agreements with Meta covering 2,609 MW across its PJM nuclear fleet, including 433 MW of new uprates. It also has a 20-year agreement with AWS for up to 1,200 MW from Comanche Peak. The DOE has announced a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2B to help finance nuclear uprates and modernization across Vistra's Pennsylvania and Ohio fleet. If finalized, that financing would help preserve nearly 4 GW of existing nuclear generation while adding 433 MW of new capacity. And the financial setup remains strong. Vistra's 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity is $7.4B-$7.8B and importantly, that figure excludes potential contributions from the pending Cogentrix acquisition AND the Meta PPAs. Vistra has also repurchased roughly $6.5B of stock since 2021, reducing its share count by ~30%. Management summed up the opportunity well on the latest earnings call: “the long-term expected improvement in power market fundamentals is underway.” TLDR; Higher realized power prices. Rapid electricity demand growth. 20-year nuclear contracts. Potentially billions in federal financing. Aggressive buybacks. I really like the long-term setup for $VST.
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Anyone kept up with $FTLF? Big pullback and always liked the CEO.
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$VST remains one of my favorite ways to play rising U.S. power demand. Vistra is already benefiting from stronger pricing. Q2 adjusted EBITDA increased more than 30% YoY to $1.77B, driven primarily by higher realized energy and capacity prices along with contributions from acquired assets. Management continues to expect major load growth through 2030, which is roughly 4-6% annually in ERCOT and 2-3% in PJM driven by data centers, reshoring, electrification and population growth. The nuclear story is even more compelling. Vistra signed 20-year agreements with Meta covering 2,609 MW across its PJM nuclear fleet, including 433 MW of new uprates. It also has a 20-year agreement with AWS for up to 1,200 MW from Comanche Peak. The DOE has announced a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2B to help finance nuclear uprates and modernization across Vistra's Pennsylvania and Ohio fleet. If finalized, that financing would help preserve nearly 4 GW of existing nuclear generation while adding 433 MW of new capacity. And the financial setup remains strong. Vistra's 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity is $7.4B-$7.8B and importantly, that figure excludes potential contributions from the pending Cogentrix acquisition AND the Meta PPAs. Vistra has also repurchased roughly $6.5B of stock since 2021, reducing its share count by ~30%. Management summed up the opportunity well on the latest earnings call: “the long-term expected improvement in power market fundamentals is underway.” TLDR; Higher realized power prices. Rapid electricity demand growth. 20-year nuclear contracts. Potentially billions in federal financing. Aggressive buybacks. I really like the long-term setup for $VST.
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