Professional Trader/Investor for over 24 years. Former member CME/CBOT Running 3 equity portfolios: Leveraged long/short growth, Income and Options.
Florida, USA
Joined February 2012
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Amen to this.
When I was trading at the CME, for some reason it seemed to work out that every time I was set to go on a vacation, there would be some significant move in the market against my positions. It became a running joke between my wife and I. You can't control the market. You just have to always make sure that no matter what happens, it can't take you out of the game.
Sizing and leverage are massive factors in your ultimate success or failure. The investment account I talk about here could go to zero and I'll still be fine. I've made sure of that by how I've arranged the other parts of my financial house.
Doesn't mean the crashes and red days don't hurt. They suck. Green is always better than red. But the account fits into my overall financial life in such a way that I can always remain objective about it and avoid (or try as best as humanly possible anyways) making emotional decisions or being forced to sell at a bad time for external reasons.
This is a huge advantage for any investor.
Every market crash I’ve lived through, someone has asked me the same question:
“Aren’t you scared?”
Of course I am. I’m human. I watch my wealth evaporate on paper just like everyone else. Fear doesn’t magically disappear because you’ve been investing for decades.
But experience has taught me something far more valuable than how to predict the next market crash. The people selling in a panic aren’t necessarily foolish or uninformed. Many are exceptionally intelligent. They simply have obligations that don’t care about market conditions. a mortgage, a nervous client, a boss demanding answers. They have a clock running.
I don’t have that clock. And I’ve come to realize just how extraordinary an advantage that is.
Not superior intelligence, faster information, or some brilliant forecasting model. Simply the financial freedom and emotional discipline to remain patient when others have no choice but to act.
Here’s what many investors fail to understand. Your greatest advantage in a market crash isn’t having the courage to buy. It’s having structured your life and finances so that you aren’t forced to sell. That advantage must be built long before the crash arrives.
Never borrow more than you can survive losing. Never invest money you’ll need in the foreseeable future. And never put yourself in a position where someone else’s timetable determines your investment decisions.
Because patience isn’t merely a psychological virtue. It’s a financial privilege you must deliberately create and fiercely protect.
The market may reward patience, but only those who can afford to be patient will ever collect that reward.
If you want to become a better investor, follow along and share my investing wisdom. 🙏🌹
Now that the tracker is fixed, flights are looking much better. October will beat September and Q4 is on track to beat Q3 and to increase 25-30% YoY. I think there is a good chance of a beat in Q3 but not sure it's enough for a full year guidance raise. Midpoint of current guidance is $747 million, and that seems about right for where things stand now in my opinion.
October flights are a little light for $TMDX. They are still on track to do 15% more than October 2025 but it doesn't look like October will beat September. Earnings are on Nov 5, so we'll see if Q4 gets off to a strong enough start to let Waleed raise full year guidance.
High gas taxes, limiting oil and gas production and now proposing a new mileage tax.....
Not really how you address an affordability crisis.
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I think this portfolio would do very well over the next couple of years.
You guys understand there are still AI names trading below a 1.0 PEG???
Not all AI stocks are expensive. Some of the fastest-growing names still trade below a 1.0 PEG.
$AMD - 0.7x
$MRVL - 0.6x
$ON - 0.5x
$BE - 0.5x
$CRDO - 0.4x
$NVDA - 0.3x
$AVGO - 0.3x
$SNDK - 0.1x
$MU - 0.1x
$SKHY - 0.1x
Capital is just rotating from the obvious winners to the next layer of beneficiaries.
Find the companies supplying the infrastructure, connectivity, optics, power, and silicon needed to build AI.
That’s where some of the biggest opportunities still are.
$AAOI is targeting $471 million per month in revenue towards the middle of 2027. I don't care what the chart squigglers say, if the company gets anywhere close to its target, this is one massively undervalued.
$AAOI bleeding out on the weekly.
Rough rejection this week, down almost 17%, nothing bullish here right now.
Should've held $76 from the August low, but it didn't.
Zoomed out, this looks like stage 4, probably needs time to chop sideways before anything changes.
I make fun of this guy a lot but I absolutely agree with this tweet. I always say "you can't borrow conviction".
If you bought because your favorite guru bought or because its trending on X or any other low-conviction reason, you'll never be able to hold when the inevitable drawdown happens. You have to do the work, understand the business and its prospects and be able to form a defensible opinion on valuation.
$PTON looks good here because the comps are so bad. It's great that they are becoming profitable but their real problem is growth. I haven't seen a plan that I consider viable for materially growing the user base or growing ARPU. Next year, when the comps become much tougher, I think it's going to be a problem for them. No position and no interest in one.
Panic level is zero. I guess it comes from experience. Growth stock investing is extremely volatile . A 50% drawdown is pretty routine for most of the stocks we're trading. I've learned to trim on rips, add on dips and constantly evaluate my investing thesis for each holding. When things change, I adjust as necessary. It's a long-term game and it's never easy or smooth. But I have conviction in my ideas for the future of each company in my portfolio, so the day to day doesn't really get to me. Up is always better than down, but down is just part of the game.
$SPCX I think the company is fairly valued around here at $130-140. If the growth Elon predicts materializes, then it is absolutely cheap here, but it's silly to pretend there aren't massive risks and question marks on the company's ambitions. I'd love to be a shareholder but I'd like a little bit more of a margin of safety. I'd love to open a position under $115 and go full-size at $100.
Every investor from Druckenmiller to Buffet to Ackman to FinX gurus gets things wrong. It's the nature of markets. You don't even have to be wrong to lose money. The market just has to be irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But one thing is for sure: you will be wrong at some point.
Investing is a long-term numbers game. The goal is to stay in the game long enough to win. Was I wrong on $RDDT? Right or wrong, the position isn't big enough to take me out of the game. So that's a win in one sense.
And as an early shareholder, I've made a lot of money on it and gave back only a small portion of those gains in the recent selloff. And will I be wrong a year from now? Who knows The company is still growing earnings like crazy, piling up FCF, buying back shares and just beginning to monetize it's network. If DAU continues to decline, then that growth will be hard to maintain, but they've got a great team working the issue, so I'm inclined to see what they come up with.
Days like Friday will happen to every growth stock investor. I guarantee it. Was I wrong about $RDDT? Overall, I'd say no. It's been a very profitable position, and I'm not convinced the DAU issue is a long-term trend. What's important now is being able to look at the business (not the stock) objectively and determine if the best course of action is holding for a recovery or switching to a different horse in whole or in part. Haven't made a decision on that yet, but that's what a professional investor does. In any event, because it has been a core position in my portfolio for a long time, I will certainly update X if I make any changes.
I will say that I’ve never seen more high quality investors be so wrong before on $RDDT than any other company I owned if that means anything.
Some of the smartest investors on this platform got it wrong.
So don’t beat yourself up because you got clapped like I did. It happens. We lick our wounds and move on.
In 2021 I lost what was then 30% of my portfolio on options contracts on $AMZN earnings (like an idiot 20 year old at that time). I thought at that moment I was totally fucked and it was over.
I ended up making it all back and much more.
Things happen so keep your head up if today wasn’t your day.
Amongst all the toxicity on this app I’m going to try to be the person that encourages and uplifts.
Take care. ❤️
People focusing on $RDDT DAU number are missing the fact that ARPU is going up 36% YoY. This is a company making a lot of money and growing its business very nicely. And take out the 15% of the company's market cap that is cash on its balance sheet, and the valuation is really becoming silly.