Building Maximal (https://xitter.cf/t.co/jjtjB5TvCR). prev @ycombinator @alchemy @golden @bloomberg @columbia @cornell Nullius in verba. views are my training data’s.

New York, USA
Joined October 2013
oversubscribed in steez
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do you seriously mean to tell me don valentine invested in chuck e cheese
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PREDICTION: Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince (@eastdakota) says AI agents will change the business model of the Internet over the next decade: "In five years, agent traffic is going to be 1000x human traffic." "The Internet almost collapsed during COVID when traffic doubled." "There's a lot more servers, routers, and bandwidth that has to get provisioned in order for that to work. The question is, who will pay for it?" "My hunch is that something's got to change in terms of how the Internet works. Like some version of micropayments that every time you access a resource, your agent pays a ten-thousandth of a penny to be able to see the menu." "Then there's probably some sort of trade where if you are willing to tell the restaurant what you're looking for, that price goes down, maybe it's free. In some cases, the site might actually pay you to come visit it." "This will lead to the next version of advertising, which is how do you advertise to agents?"
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Fundamentals of a business built around a paid product 1. willingness to purchase product 2. desire to keep paying for product 3. able to reach many people/businesses with (1) and (2) Competition, brand, product quality, moat, .. are inputs, frequently overindexed individually
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Realizing how incredibly autistic our early board meetings were for Spellbook: 1. I declared the meeting a “story free zone” because I was worried that stories were too psychologically persuasive, and that they would pull us away from hard data-driven reality 2. Meetings would largely consist of scrolling through like 40 slides of charts sifting for signal. I called this “soaking in the data” 3. In the search for PMF I wanted us to think like a hedge fund making many bets. While we knew the problem we were solving I didn’t want our team to get too tied to any single narrative because I thought it would reduce agility. 4. I never allowed us to think about us as “a company”, but instead as a SWAT team searching for a company to build 5. This approach enabled us to launch over 100 different landing pages with different angles on the way to PMF Honestly, I think it’s a really good approach pre-PMF. Too many companies get attached to a singular story too early and quit when it doesn’t work out. Startups are 3D chess. There is always a move. Slack was a game company. However, at Series B/Series C scale you really need stories to align both your team and customers, and you can think much more longterm after PMF. But I still believe stories are a dangerous dark magic. You can craft an incredibly persuasive story for almost any position. They’re more of a marketing/comms tool than a reasoning/understanding reality tool.
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I'm not sending my deck anymore 😂
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would you rather be a) the best in the world at your craft, but unrecognized (and thus no financial success/social status) b) terrible at your craft, but BSed your way to a strong outcome in this new era I believe more are choosing b). the real winners will always choose a)
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It is infuriating realizing how much these mobsters cost us. If they died off and we got automated ports, we could be so much wealthier, so much more resilient, and so much less at risk of being held hostage by these evil men again.
Two years ago today this man told us "I will cripple you" (referring to the entire U.S. economy) if we didn't give his east coast port union workers what they wanted (60%+ wage increases and a pledge of no automation of our ports). It worked btw, he got all his demands.
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The 3 I’s of new markets
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Definitely many positive use cases will come from this. many of them we likely can’t even fathom today But I can’t help but be a little terrified of * my family getting deepfakes that pass the Turing test * AI girlfriends that are ‘good enough’ to appeal to normies
Introducing Griffin, the first model to pass the video Turing test. 48% of people who talked to it live thought it was a real human. Previous systems have had a pass rate <3%. It is #1 on NVIDIA's benchmark for full-duplex AI video. It’s the first Human Interaction Model (HIM).
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The 48% figure and "video Turing test" claim are from Tavus's own study of 54 one-minute calls, not independently verified or using a standard protocol. Griffin-Lite leads NVIDIA's VideoFDB benchmark on their public leaderboard. cellcog.ai/blog/tavus-gri… research.nvidia.com/labs/amri/proj… tech-ish.com/2026/10/02/tav…
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Two years ago today this man told us "I will cripple you" (referring to the entire U.S. economy) if we didn't give his east coast port union workers what they wanted (60%+ wage increases and a pledge of no automation of our ports). It worked btw, he got all his demands.
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leeds retweeted
Today we're excited to announce @HalluminateAI's $30M Series A led by @oakhcft with participation from @YCombinator, @orangecollectv, @FTPartners, @heavybit, and more.
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I don't want a "dot." I don't want a "muse." I want a scheming Chinese eunuch. I want a silver-tongued, unctuous vizier who says "most judicious, sire."
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hmm
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Being smart is overrated in startups. Everyone in places like YC or Silicon Valley is smart, but it doesn’t move the needle. What actually pushes companies forward is not intelligence, but being resourceful, clear, and brutally honest with yourself. The best founders I've seen own their mistakes fast and pivot hard. Smartness is a baseline. Clarity and grit are the real bottlenecks.
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"Can a robot write a symphony? Can a robot turn a... canvas into a beautiful masterpiece?" "What? Yes, obviously. Can't you?"
Claude Opus 5.5 writes a fugue in the style of Bach. I called Astra’s fugue the most impressive musical feat I’d ever seen from an LLM, and this is just as good. The circle-of-fifths sequence beginning at 1:13 is beautiful. The interplay of voices is natural and satisfying. LLMs are getting to the point where their music is good enough to listen to for pure enjoyment.
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What an insane time. We are so lucky to be working in tech right now.
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Patrick Collison's advice to people in their 20s: find where the highest standards are, and go experience them firsthand. "When I talk to people in other domains, this is so frequently the thing that I hear from them." "That when they worked with X person or Y organization or in Z environment, they learned what great actually is, and that just permanently changed their sense for what their own standard for their work ought to be." "Maybe one version of what people in their twenties should do is... figure out, where can you learn the highest standards? Where are the highest standards embodied, and where can you go and experience that firsthand?" @patrickc w/ @dwarkesh_sp (Feb 2024)
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You can’t stop ASI by quitting your AI job. Doesn’t work. Someone else will replace you. What you actually have to do is start a safer AI lab. Which doesn’t work. Someone else will move faster. So what you actually have to do is pass a law. Which doesn’t work. Some other country won’t ban it. So what you actually have to do is sign an international agreement. Which doesn’t work. Some other country will break it. So what you actually have to do is conquer the world. Which only works if you have ASI.
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The ARR multiple fallacy ARR multiple is not the right way to think about sub-20% growers. Simple framework: If you’re growing sub-20%, you get a 10-30x EBIDTA or FCF multiple. If you use this rubric, Miro is very fairly valued by Bending Spoons. Only 30%+ growers get the luxury of an ARR multiple. The reason is that 30% growth means you’re doubling in 3 years and so the revenue base will be 2x in 36 months, and the margin structure will look different at 2x scale. Cash flow today is a rounding error against that. So you value the trajectory, and ARR is the cleanest proxy for trajectory. At 15% growth, doubling takes 5 years. That's close enough to "never" that the market stops paying for the future and starts paying for the present. The present is earnings. If you're not producing them, you're not a growth company anymore. You're a bad value company. The mistake founders make is anchoring to the multiple they had at 40% growth and thinking the ARR multiple just compresses. It doesn't compress. It gets replaced. You cross 30% on the way down and the entire valuation framework switches out from under you. Which is why the worst place to be is 20-30% growth with no FCF. Growth investors won't pay for it. Value investors can't. You're priced by whoever is least excited,a really painful place to be.
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Very funny that xAI was created to stop Anthropic which was created to stop OpenAI which was created to stop Google which would've actually never developed ASI because it was afraid of cannibalizing its ads revenue from search.
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