"Lesson 3: The need for #macroprudential supervision" -- Stanley Fischer 2011 @BIS_org bis.org/review/r110414f.pdf
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Spillovers from AI financing news to US Treasury and investment-grade corporate bond markets have so far been small and short-lived. Read more: bit.ly/4sqAqWA #BISBulletin
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The 15th Bundesbank Term Structure Workshop takes place next Wednesday, Nov-4, in Frankfurt and online! Join us for research presentations and discussions on yield curve modeling and macro-finance. Online registration and program: em.bundesbank.de/microsite/i…
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econvitals is an amazing new resource. On the one hand, it shows the power of AI, when well domesticated (by Jason). On the other, it produces incredibly useful stuff. A definitive follow.
Unusually, the Fed’s real policy rate is among the highest of major central banks. One plausible reason is stronger U.S. growth: the New York Fed puts the neutral real rate at 1.0 percent in the United States, 0.1 percent in the euro area. econvitals.org
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Congratulations to @ChristianKWolf, winner of the @sffed's Janet Yellen Award for Monetary Research, presented at our 3rd annual Conference on Macro-Finance Research. 🏆 His contributions to econometrics and macroeconomics are deeply impacting both monetary research and policy.
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Global #Spillovers from FED Hikes and a Strong Dollar: The Risk Channel @nberpubs @skalemliozcan @dfilizunsal @ji_cristi nber.org/papers/w32330
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“#Macroprudential policy and financial risk: The moderating role of financial innovation”. #FinTech securities.io/financial-inno… #financialstability #Regulation
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China Plans #NBFI #macroprudential Liquidity Backstop to Prevent Bond Market Fire Sales caixinglobal.com/2026-10-20/…
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MacroPru😷 retweeted
We will again be hiring for multiple junior positions at @OxfordEconDept! Details and application instructions here: econjobmarket.org/positions/… Apply numerously!
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The PRA, the "the UK’s new top banking regulator will this week commit to setting quantifiable performance targets as part of a five-year strategy to be published for the first time in 2027." #macroprudential #regulation #accountability ft.com/content/f06bdefd-bbc6…
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MacroPru😷 retweeted
Replying to @Brad_Setser
China's property bubble was a land price bubble. It was necessary in the 2010s to finance massive infrastructure build out. Land financing is how China paid for so much infrastructure over the past 15 years.
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"The UK’s financial services supervisor wants to scrap 'nominal' regulatory thresholds to make compliance costs “proportionate ...” complianceweek.com/banking/u…
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This paper develops a way to measure #systemicrisk for both listed and unlisted banks using CDS data. Applied to Europe, the results suggest that some large banks contribute more to systemic risk than their capital buffers might imply. spkl.io/60117ndAt #Banking
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Where could the next source of systemic risk emerge? In the latest episode of Macro Matters, BWC Advisory Council Member Hiroshi Nakaso discusses how years of monetary accommodation and deteriorating fiscal positions may be contributing to vulnerabilities across global financial markets. Watch the full podcast: youtu.be/w7WlOk6Q3a4?si=xZLV…
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MacroPru😷 retweeted
A one-percentage-point increase in yields would imply a roughly 15% price decline in this example. This becomes particularly dangerous when bonds are held using financial leverage, or pledged as collateral for other financial transactions. Falling collateral values can trigger margin calls. Margin calls can force liquidation. Forced selling can cause further price declines. And suddenly, a market traditionally associated with safety becomes a source of instability. The IMF's October 2026 Global Financial Stability Report explicitly warns that renewed inflation or fiscal concerns could trigger sovereign bond yield shocks with consequences across financial markets. imf.org The danger is not merely that bonds lose value. It is that losses in supposedly safe assets may transmit stress across the financial system.
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MacroPru😷 retweeted
Excellent initiative! We made something similar for finance/international/macro research, collected links to 100+ datasets here, along with other resources like code sites.google.com/view/interc…
🚨 Public good alert: I put together a list of 100+ free datasets for social science research, spanning a large number of topics. I hope it's useful for students, researchers, and anyone looking for interesting data to explore. Contributions are welcome! github.com/toddrjones/datase…
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#Viewpoint: "Why I believe Europe must stop counting bank capital twice -- Europe must simplify banking rules and ensure capital buffers work in a crisis" thebanker.com/content/e3925e… #macroprudential #regulation #banks
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Highly relevant! "Geneva 29: Changing Structure and Challenges of the International Financial System: Imbalances, Currencies, and Financial Stability" by Valentina Bruno, Steven B. Kamin, Ángel Ubide, and Cédric Tille. "The 29th Geneva Report on the World Economy assesses four major challenges currently confronting the global economy. First, global imbalances have re-emerged as a central issue, driven by China’s growing external surplus, in part reflecting its active industrial policy, and the US deficit associated with expanding public debt. The authors argue that imbalances, though rising, are not yet a cause for serious concern. Even so, greater support for domestic demand in China and fiscal consolidation in the United States would address key policy needs in these two economies while at the same time helping to shrink the imbalances. Second, the global role of the dollar has gained renewed attention amid hikes in US tariffs, the Iran–US conflict, and mounting concerns about US fiscal sustainability. The authors argue that despite market disruptions such as those observed following “Liberation Day”, the dollar will likely retain its dominance in international trade and especially finance. Its two main competitors, the euro and the renminbi, are still hindered by fundamental limitations such as the lack of financial market integration, small supply of safe assets, and restrictions on capital mobility. Third, global liquidity has been reconfigured around capital markets since 2008, with an expanding stock of government debt and a growing role for non-bank financial intermediaries. Yet dealer banks remain the pivot of the system: the foreign exchange swap market and the repo market used to finance the US Treasury draw on the same dealer balance-sheet capacity. The result is a new type of trilemma – a bind where one cannot simultaneously have ever-expanding Treasury supply, strict constraints on dealer balance sheets, and an always-steady functioning of the bond market. Rather than retreating, the dollar's role as the operating system of global finance has only deepened. Finally, the report discusses the geopolitical aspects of imbalances and the importance of size, power dynamics, and the echoes of past crises. These explain the outsized impact of a few countries and markets, the concerns about ensuring access to strategic goods, and the inertia that prevents the implementation of desirable policies." cepr.org/publications/books-…
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MacroPru😷 retweeted
ICYMI - here you can watch the presentation of the @cepr 2026 Geneva Report @piie. Imbalances, reserve currencies, the new trilemma in financial markets, the complex geopolitics of global macro policies, including exchange rates, and much more piie.com/events/2026/geneva-…
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"Full implementation of the final Basel III standards would increase G-Sibs’ Tier 1 MRC by an average 1.8% relative to the current framework" @riskdotnet risk.net/risk-quantum/796419… #regulation #Basel3
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