@MarhelmData

Shipping data, commodities, and trade flow analysis. We provide a data platform, private discord, and weekly report. Made by investors, for investors.

 The Open Ocean
marhelm.com
Joined February 2023
  • Tweets9.4K
  • Following209
  • Followers30.5K
3.5KMedia
And 2025 is a wrap! Here were our 2025 picks Not pictured is Seabird Exploration, which was acquired mid year up > 50% (good for 100% TWR) Average pick returned ~50% for 2025, with 4/20 names providing a negative return Best pick returned > 300%, worst pick returned -23%
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Investors fear Lula will nationalize all private enterprises and expropriate private shareholders without compensation as his final act after more than a decade in office
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Dolphin Drilling sells Blackford Dolphin for up to $25M but keeps potential upside through rig management. Only $10M is payable on delivery; the remaining $15M depends on SPM receiving its first payment under a potential drilling contract. SPM would cover future rig costs.
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Reports that the entire Brazilian market has been halted
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IEA chief Fatih Birol says there is no credible pathway back to pre-conflict conditions. Oil is flirting with $120/bbl, while diesel and gasoil tightness could persist into mid-2027.
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Lot of people who can’t find Brazil on a map have very strong opinions about this election. Yet, the handful of people I follow who know Brazil well, including @irbezek (who publicly put the odds in Lula’s favor on a podcast), are like “yeah, this election makes sense”
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He accurately predicted the entire vote trajectory
Rodrigo Mahlmeister@ro_mahl21h
LULA SAI NA FRENTE NA PROJEÇÃO Eu nunca achei que eu ia postar isso, mas seja pra apontar um belo erro no meu modelo ou não, eu preciso mostrar o que tá acontecendo, por transparência. Estou tremendo de medo de errar. Outras iniciativas também dão Lula com vantagem.
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Marhelm retweeted
Tom Smith@TomSmith83910h
Current president gets re-elected. Has been president for 12 of the last 24 years $EWZ down 27% pre-market
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Marhelm retweeted
Andrey Sizov
@sizov_andre18h
BRL futures after Lula wins: -10%. Apparently the market has just discovered Lula. Small detail: he has been Brazil’s president for the last four years. Overreaction? #Brazil #BRL #oatt #soybeans #corn
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Marhelm retweeted
Bloomberg
@business9h
Rarely in recent memory have investors been so wrong-footed by a political event as they were by Sunday’s presidential election in Latin America’s largest economy. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

Brazil Catches Investors Leaning the Wrong Way

ETF tracking Brazilian stocks is plunging 27% this morning.

bloomberg.com
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Historic moment for the people of Brazil
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal19h
🇧🇷 Listen to this, it’s near São Paulo the moment Flávio Bolsonaro took the lead As soon as the numbers flipped, the whole neighborhood went nuts, people yelling from their windows everywhere. You can tell how badly they wanted this. Writer: Daniyal
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Democracy won
Ryan Rozbiani
@RyanRozbiani16h
The Celebrations in Brazil for Lula's Victory are MASSIVE There are THOUSANDS on the streets celebrating these Presidential Elections Results Bolsonaro says it was rigged. Doesnt looks like it buddy
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Saudi Arabia plans to store crude in Singapore from H2 2027, using caverns with a capacity for ~9M barrels. The shift brings Saudi supply closer to Asian buyers.
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VLCCs could face their biggest delivery wave in 50 years: 100+ new ships/year in 2028 and 2029. 319 ships are on order, 34% of today’s fleet, while crude loadings fell 6% YoY in Jan–Sep 2026.
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Aframax earnings just hit a record $385,000/day. At the same time, LR2 earnings on the TC1 (Middle East Gulf–Japan) route reached a record $320,000/day. The most profitable tankers aren't necessarily the biggest anymore.
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Marhelm retweeted
MenchOsint
@MenchOsint9h
UKMTO reports an incident that occured on October 23rd. IRGC reported that day to have struck two VLCC.
MenchOsint
@MenchOsintOct 23
⭕️ IRGC says two Supertankers (VLCC) were struck today in the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz. The statement adds that they were abandoned, and their crews evacuated the ships.
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A 2-million-barrel VLCC cargo is now being split into three ~700,000-barrel Aframax cargoes. Why? Because Aframaxes have become cheaper on a $/ton basis. That single shift is pulling LR2s into the dirty trade, tightening clean tanker supply, and sending rates to record highs.
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IT'S OVER LULA WINS BRAZIL PRESIDENCY BY MORE THAN 3 POINT MARGIN
Victor Garcia
@toninhodocall20h
O vídeo da noite.
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With 70% of polls reporting, Lula is projected to win the Brazilian Presidential Election
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Gibson: "In the near term, [Russian diesel] volumes are unlikely to amount to anything meaningful unless attacks on Russian refineries stop."
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Star Asia: "Russia’s ability to ramp up foreign [diesel] deliveries is increasingly running into an upstream ceiling"
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