The lunatic is on the grass The lunatic is on the grass Remembering games and daisy chains and laughs Got to keep the loonies on the path

United States
Joined February 2021
Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
Zooming out, GPUs are still renting ahead of a standard 6-year depreciation schedule Rental price vs. schedule: - H200: +143% - B200: +111% - RTX PRO 6000: +73% - H100: +54% - A100: +9% Most of the gap opened up after April, when token demand took off Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-we…
GPUs are aging like fine wine, with rental rates up across the board since January 1st Approximate change YTD: - H200: +160% - B200: +120% - RTX PRO 6000: +65% - H100: +35% Even the 6-year-old A100 rents for more than it did at the start of the year Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-we…
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
“I’m shocked, shocked to find this totally unpredictable geostrategic outcome going on in here!” “Your winnings, Sir.”
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🚨🇫🇷 French police: rioters in Paris, Marseille and Lyon are armed with AK47s and Scorpion submachine guns.
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
Replying to @jonweaks
I love Jimmy's classic on the Fed:
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
The TIC (US capital flow) data is lagged and there isn't any number for August yet. The last strong print for Treasuries was in May; June and July were weak. But it sure looks like the world wants to finance San Francisco much than it wants to finance DC right now 2/2
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
We got trolled over this but were right all along.
KSA: E-W Pipeline flows at 5.8 MBPD per ABS, which is good news, but what is even more interesting is the comment below. "Within five or six days of the East-West Pipeline being targeted, we began using it," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, according to Saudi state television. This is pretty remarkable work by the engineers and crews. It also makes the headlines of the "cargo cancellations" to Europe harder to explain. Note that Aramco made no public statements about this. West coast loading (including 10/6) is stabilizing around ~3.7 MBPD on a 10dma basis. Note loadings on a particular day do not equal flows on the same day.
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
It's fascinating how people had NO TROUBLE believing the numbers when they were A LOT LOWER. Now all of sudden, everything is a lie when even publicly-accessible satellite imagery show FAR MORE tanker loadings and STS transfers that result in GREATER EXPORTS.
I would call that number absolut BS. You have been bought by the Trump Regime.
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
🇺🇸 Treasury withdrew $91 Billion from its TGA balance on Thursday. The same day, US bond yields dropped 10-12 BPS. Treasury already said before that they could use the TGA balance for bond purchases, and maybe this has already started.
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People thought I was nuts….. Well I might still be 🥜 but I was more right about this than I could’ve ever imagined 🤣
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
The professor’s assessment checks out vs the shiny toy model.
A few comments before the jobs report. 1. The labor market is about as good as monetary policy can make it. Unemployment around 4% and nominal wage growth around 3% is good. 2. The labor market is clearly warming back up, and aggregate income is already running hot.
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
US continuing jobless claims fell to the lowest since 2023.
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
It's kind of amazing how much Mexico and the US are working together under Trump and how much Mexico is benefiting. Snow-Mexico might want to take some notes because really the asks aren't crazy
🇲🇽🇺🇸 México y EU se acercan a un acuerdo para reducir aranceles: funcionarios mexicanos señalaron que ambos países trabajan en los detalles de un pacto que bajaría de 25% a 15% los aranceles estadounidenses a los vehículos ligeros elfinanciero.com.mx/economia… Con información de Bloomberg 📰
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
The model updated today. I changed the look back window from three months to 12 to smooth out the data. Even then we are still tightening.
Replying to @EconstratPB
Even with the revisions today 3m average is ~50k? Still well above breakeven. Is that your read?
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
What is this, a bubble for ants?
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
You guys ready for an AI Vaccine? “Bill Gates Says AI Powerful Enough to Lead to ‘a Billion Deaths’”
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
There’s been a lot of panic on social media lately about the security of the Baltic states. Take a breath. If there is reason to fear an attack, rest assured: we will make that clear. Until then, keep calm, carry on and support Ukraine.
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
European AI industry
Name one thing you could fit inside this bag:
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Black Swan, Crossing Over Into the Banana Zone retweeted
43% of US businesses now credit AI with revenue gains, against just 2% that say it reduced revenue, per Intuit.
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